Falcons vs Buccaneers Picks – NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Falcons vs Buccaneers Picks – NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Yo, what’s up? Welcome back to another episode of the SWAS. We’re into NFL week 15. We’re starting out with Thursday Night Football Division game here. Atlanta’s on the road in Tampa. Let’s talk about it. I mean, is Cooper Russ 2 and a half points? I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn’t, we have a real problem. You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they have the one good game against Kansas at home. When toast talks about the kicking market, it’s like some earth is flat Andy, true or false, this is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it’s gonna be very ugly. I think this is gonna be ugly. Hey, get this to us. All right, so let’s take a look at what we’ve seen from Pinnacle so far this week. Uh after last week’s games ended, it reopened at 5 1/2, dropped down to 4 1/2, which is pretty much where it’s been sitting all week. We’re up to 20K limits now. We’re still sitting at 4 1/2. You take a look at Juice Reel. Uh check this out. So at 5, 5 1/2, 6, and 6 and 1/2, 89% of confirmed profitable bersers on the app. Remember, Juice Real, you can’t fake it. It’s hooked up to your sports book. You can’t manipulate your record. So 89% of confirmed profitable bettors are on the Atlanta side at 5, 5 1/2, 6, 6 1/2. But look what happens when you switch it to 4 1/2. 70% of profitable bettors on the app are actually taking the Bucks at 4 1/2. So, it did come down to 4 and 1/2, but based on what we’re seeing, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go back up to five. 5 1/2. Now, five is kind of a dead number, so it wouldn’t be that significant of a movement, but yeah, that’s where uh where we’re circling right now. All right, Falcons, Bucks, let’s get into it. Uh both these teams coming off losses. Not sure which one is more embarrassing to be honest. Um the Bucks lost a home game to the Saints. Falcons lost a home game to a Seattle team that’s pretty good, but they got embarrassed 37-9. Uh in that Saints game, the Bucks converted just three third downs the entire game. They converted three third downs the entire game. They were five for 20 on third and fourth down conversion attempts. So yeah, Bucks struggling to uh to make plays when it counts there on third and fourth down. Uh the Bucks have now lost four of their last five games. Their only win in that stretch was a 2017 win at home over Arizona. Now, to be fair to the Bucks, they’ve had some tough games. They played the Bills in Buffalo. They played the Rams in LA. If you look at their last five, they played the Patriots, too. They actually played them pretty uh pretty tough. If you look at the Bucks last five, yeah, they’re 1 and4. The Saints loss is the only bad loss. I mean, they they played kind of a tough schedule recently. So, maybe we cut we cut the Bucks a little bit of slack here. Uh, meanwhile on the Atlanta side, I’m not sure if we cut them some them some slack. They’ve now lost seven of their last eight games after starting the season 3 and two. They started this year 3-2. They’ve lost seven of their last eight. Uh, last week in the Seattle game, the Falcons were one of 13 on third down conversions. One of 13. Um, that loss to Seattle not only mathematically eliminated the Falcon Falcons from playoff consideration. So that ninth loss, they’re mathematically out of it. But it also clinched the Falcons eighth consecutive season below 500. Eight straight losing seasons for the Falcons. Uh that is the longest stretch of losing seasons we’ve seen from Atlanta since the 1980s. So eight straight losing seasons for the Falcons. Clinched. Uh certainly not a great record to break for the Falcons. Eight straight losing seasons. Um, so like I said, that eliminated the Falcons playoff hopes put and and the loss the Bucks lost to the Saints that put Tampa in a tie with Carolina. Both the Bucks and the Panthers play three division games out of their last four, right? Cuz the Bucks and Panthers still have to play twice. So the last few weeks, it’s going to be fireworks in this division. Obviously, it’s not the strongest division. In fact, it’s one of the weakest in the NFL, but in terms of entertainment value, this is going to be a great little finish here in the NFC South. So, what do we think about this matchup? Uh, well, since joining the Bucks, Baker Mayfield has actually had problems with this Falcons team. Uh, since Baker joined the Bucks, the Falcons are actually 3-2 straight up, 3-2 against the spread against Tampa. And they’ve done it with multiple quarterbacks. Um, Desmond Ritter started a couple of those, Kurt Cousins started a couple of those, and then Ritter, I mean, not Ritter, Pennock actually started the week one game. So, during the stretch, the Bucks have had Baker at quarterback, but the Falcons have had three different starting quarterbacks. still three-2 in their last five games against the Bucks. This is obviously a rematch from week one where I don’t know how the Falcons didn’t win this game. 23-20 the Bucks went on the road to Atlanta. I believe the Falcons missed a field goal. Yeah, cuz I think they they cut coup right after this. Pretty sure the Falcons had a field goal to tie it or win it. I don’t remember exactly. Yeah, this is a rematch from week one. Bucks go on the road to Atlanta. Ups. Well, I don’t even know if it was an upset. I don’t remember what the line was I think it was a pick them to be honest, but the Bucks beat Atlanta in Atlanta. So, do the Falcons get their revenge here. Let’s start with the match up between the Falcons offense against the Bucks defense. At first glance, you would think this is a pretty tough matchup for the Falcons. Obviously, with PennX out, with Drake London out, you look at the year-long numbers. Atlanta’s 13th in success rate, 26th in EPA per play. The Bucks defense 21st and 11th. Obviously, I mentioned the injuries. Still no Michael Penn, Kirk Cousins is going to be at quarterback. Drake London has been ruled out. There was speculation early in the week that that he he had a chance of coming back. He has been ruled out. Kyle Pittz is listed as questionable, but I believe he’s going to play. I don’t know that for a fact, but I I think Kyle Pittz is going to play. Um, but what I’m looking at on this graphic is the offensive line because this Falcons team since they’ve got their they got their full offensive line on the field, they’ve been running the ball. Both their guards missed timed this year. Lindstöm and Burggeron, they’re both back. And if you look at the last five games, we’re finally seeing Bejian Robinson get it going on the ground. In their last five games, they’re averaging 4.6 yards per carry, over 47% success rate per rush, 135 rush yards per game. And you might think, well, Kyle, they’re playing the Bucks, though. Todd BS always has an elite run defense. And that’s true. Todd BS usually does have a great run defense. In fact, his entire tenure there at Tampa Bay, other than that one year when they were really injured on defense, he’s pretty much always had an elite run defense there. You look at the last four games, Tampa not the strongest numbers against the run. Now, they’re they’re not just getting steamrololled or anything, but in their last four games, they’re allowing over 4.4 yards per carry, over 42% success rate per rush. We saw the Cardinals running the ball on the Bucks in Tampa. We even saw the Saints running the ball a little bit. The Saints don’t run the ball on anybody. We even saw the Saints running the ball a little bit. They again they weren’t getting steamrololled. But the point I’m making is we’ve seen this elite Bucks run defense look not so elite in the last few weeks and we’re dealing with key injuries here on this Bucks defense. Uh looks like Tai Smith safety not going to play. Dennis the linebacker not going to play. Ky’s been out basically all year. But those two guys, Smith and Dennis, that’s two of the top three leading tacklers on the Bucks. So, not only is T has Tampa Bay been struggling a little bit with the run uncharacteristically, but they’re missing two of their top three tacklers in this game. I know Atlanta was unable to get the run going against the Bucks in the opener back in week one that was at home in the dome as well. But if you take into consideration that the Falcons are running the ball much better right now than they were early in the season and the Bucks run defense seems to be trending in the opposite direction with key injuries, I don’t think it’s crazy to say Atlanta’s able to run the ball a bit in this game. Now you might be thinking, well Kyle, who cares? Kirk Cousins is a quarterback. And I suppose that’s a fair concern. What’s one thing Kirk Cousins can still do, though? So Kirk Cousins as his career progressed and he he became a veteran in the NFL at the tail end of his tenure there at Minnesota and then last year with the Falcons, one thing he can still do is read a blitz package, get the ball out to the correct target. Look at his numbers. Even this year where he struggled, he still has a pass rating over 100 against the Blitz. It’s all Todd Bulls does is blitz. He’s in the top five of blitz rate every single year. And we’ve seen it when Kirk Cousins plays Todd BS. Let’s not forget what happened last year in the two Falcons Bucks games when Kirk Cousins was the starting quarterback. He threw for over 500 yards in one of them. The Falcons went two and0 against the Bucks this year. Kurt Cousins averaged over 392 passing yards per game, a pass rating over 130. Both times Kurt Cousins saw Todd BS defense last year. He went off. He was essentially perfect in both those games. He had eight touchdowns, one interception in those two games, and he beat Todd BS twice. Now, I don’t want to just brush over the fact that Kurt Cousins doesn’t look good. We can’t just be like, “Ah, it’s a good matchup for Cousins. He’s going to light the Bucks defense up.” That’s a little crazy. We can’t ignore the fact that he hasn’t looked good in the in the last three games since Pennix went down. Kurt Cousins has started three games. He’s got an 80.1 pass rating. It has not been pretty. And I want to be clear, just because I believe it’s a good matchup for Cousins on paper, does not mean I’m expecting Kurt Cousins to throw 500 yards again like he did last year, especially with no Drake London. I will say though, I know it feels like years ago, it was just last season when he did that to bowl. So, it’s not that far removed. All I’m saying here is I do think the Falcons are able to run the ball a little bit and it’s a good matchup for Kurt Cousins on paper. I do not think Kirk Cousins is going to go off or anything, but I I do think Atlanta as a whole can play a decent offensive game here even without Drake London. I like how that offensive line’s healthy. Kirk Cousins should have run support. He should be able to work out a play action. He’s quick making reads against blitz packages. I I think Atlanta could play a decent offensive game here. Now, on the other side of the ball, this is where we’ve got a really interesting matchup. Based on the year-long numbers, you would think the edge goes to Atlanta’s defense. uh 24th in success rate, 17th in EPA per play. That’s the Falcons defense. Bucks offense 28th in success rate, 23rd in EPA per play. Been a real disappointing season for Tampa Bay offensively. And we’ll start with Atlanta’s defense. Let’s give them some credit since they got healthy, since they got Diablo back Diablo back at linebacker. They were struggling against the run earlier in the season, but since they got healthier, their last four games, 3.7 yards per carry allowed, 33.1% success rate per rush. Now, we do have to consider the opponents, Panthers, Saints, Jets, Seahawks. So, they haven’t exactly seen elite rushing attacks, but since they got healthier, this Falcons defense looks pretty strong against the run, and they’re in pretty good shape healthwise. It looks like Jaylen Walker and Anamada, uh, the two uh people on the the two questionables on on Atlanta’s defensive front. It looks like both those guys are going to play. And on the Tampa side, all right, let’s talk about the Bucks injury report on offense. So, good news. It looks like Tristan Worfs is going to play. I actually think he’s even been taken off the injury report. So, it looks like they’re getting Worfs back. I believe he only missed one game, though. So, it’s not like he’s been out for a while. So, looks like they’re getting Tristan Warfs back. Bad news, Breesen is out. They’re starting left guard. And if you remember, that’s when the Bucks started having some success on the ground is when they finally got that offensive line healthy. It was Godi, the right tackle, who was out. He came back. Bredesen was banged up. He came back. Tristan Wors was even banged up. he came back. It was finally when the Bucks got the offensive line together. That’s where we saw the run game started to work. Now, before we get off this injury graphic here, we got to mention the wide receivers. Looks like Mike Evans has a realistic chance of playing in this game. Looks like Jaylen McMillan has a realistic chance of playing in this game. Now, from what I’m reading, neither of those are confirmed. It seems like it’s going to be 50/50. Certainly would help Baker Mayfield. Uh Kate Uton looks like won’t be playing in this game, though. So, looks like a couple receiving weapons might be coming back for Baker, but huge loss on the offensive line. Now, I mentioned the Bucks running the ball. You look at their last five games, 4.7 yards per carry, over 143 rushing yards per game, 42.4% success rate per rush after struggling to run the ball for pretty much the entire first two months of the season. The Bucks finally seem to have figured it out on the ground. And by the way, this was happening before Bucky Irving even came back. they started to figure the run out uh with with Shawn Tucker running the ball before Bucky Irving even came back, but it was when the offensive line got healthy. Now with with Bradesen out again, I’m not sure if they’re able to run the ball against a Falcons defense that’s that kind of seems to be surging against the run. So, do I trust the Bucks to run the ball in this game? I’m not sure. Atlanta’s defensive front since they got healthier has looked pretty strong. Now, where I think this Falcons defense is vulnerable, and I was talking about this last week before the Seattle game, if you remember, that’s why I was considering taking Seattle there is their secondary. In the last seven games, 55.9% success rate per drop back, an average opponent pass rating over 104, 7.8 yards per pass attempt allowed. Seems like this Falcons secondary has gotten exposed in the second half of the season. So, Baker Mayfield against a Falcon secondary that might not be very strong right now, possibly getting Mike Evans back with Godwin and I bua. So, I could see how that’s scary if you’re an Atlanta fan. When it comes to Baker Mayfield, though, I mean, there’s no other way to say this. He’s not playing well. He’s got a 727 pass rating over a sevengame sample. Seven games. We’re not talking about one or two bad games, a sevengame sample. In his last seven games, check this out. Cam Ward has considerably better considerably more efficient passing numbers in his last seven games than Baker Mayfield does. There’s no other way to say this. He’s not playing well right now. And look, getting Mike Evans back, which we would be huge, but does that magically fix all the problems Baker Mayfield’s having right now? Check this out. You want to know what Atlanta does a lot of? Look, I mentioned their secondary is vulnerable, but one thing Atlanta does is blitz. They send the house. The Atlanta Falcons defense blitzes just as much, if not more, than any other defense in the NFL. Baker Mayfield’s been terrible against the Blitz so far this season. A 713 passer rating against the Blitz. So, look, again, I think the Falcons secondary is vulnerable, but the way Baker Mayfield’s playing right now, even getting the receivers back, does that magically fix all the other problems we have he’s having so far this year? Remember, he’s also dealing with an injury. We’re not sure how healthy he is. There was a chance he wasn’t even going to play. Was that last week against the Saints? That might have been the Cardinal. That was the Cardinals game where he was dealing with pain. But he he’s in pain right now. I don’t think Baker Mayfield’s 100%. So even though I do think even though I don’t trust the Falcons secondary, not sure if I trust Baker Mayfield either, which is why I’m on Atlanta here. I got plus 6 and 1/2. I originally said I made the game four. So now that it’s down to 4 and 1/2, it’s about where I believe it should be. My microphone cut out in the middle of the pick. So yeah, I got Falcons plus 6 and a half. I make the game four. At four and a half, I would still lean towards the Atlanta side. It does seem like the sharp action is starting to come in on the Tampa Bay side. Like we like we pointed out before, I would still lean Atlanta at plus 4 and 1/2. I kind of think it goes over, but actually looks like under money’s coming in. I’m not I don’t really feel strongly about the total. I’m on the Falcons plus 6 and 1/2. Remember what we’re doing is we’re trying to take a profitable position. We’re not trying to predict the future. So if this number closes at 4 1/2, that means my plus 6 1/2 has roughly 55 55 56% chance of hitting. So at 4 1/2, it’s closer to 50/50, which isn’t profitable at – 110. Remember, so I don’t I don’t know if I would play it at 4 and 1/2, but I my pick would still be the Falcons at plus 4 1/2. Thanks for watching live shows at midnight Eastern time. As always, if you’re able to make it, we’d love to see you in the comments talking some college basketball and hopefully some NBA within the next couple of days. Finally zeroing in on that. Yeah, love love to see you there. Make sure you bet responsibly. See you tomorrow.

Kyle Kirms shares his breakdowns and picks for the Week 15 Thursday Night Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 11th, 2025.

0:00 Intro
0:54 Juice Reel Sharp Mush
1:33 ATL/TB Preview

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