HIGH CEILING: Washington Nationals Land Luis Perales; A Bold Trade With The Boston Red Sox

HIGH CEILING: Washington Nationals Land Luis Perales; A Bold Trade With The Boston Red Sox

The Nationals did it. They finally did it. They traded a left-handed pitcher to the Boston Red Sox just like we all imagined them to do. Wait a second. It's not that guy. You are locked [music] on Nationals. Your daily Washington Nationals podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. And thank you all for making Locked on Nationals your first listen every single day as we are free and available wherever you get your podcast and I am your host Ryan Clary. You can find me on Twitter at Ryanclary1 as we are part of the locked on podcast network where it is your team every single day and we are the number one sports podcasting network in America. And later on in today's show, we will have a rough draft of this starting rotation as the Nationals did make a pretty big trade. And I think that this will impact just how this rotation could look maybe on opening day, but most certainly down the road in 2026. So stay tuned for that later on in the program today. And in the second segment, we have got a new look Washington Nationals program here. I mean, this is an organization that is completely acting differently from when it was Mike Grizzo compared to now when it's with Paul Tabone. We'll kind of jump into that and really what it means for the Nationals later on in the show today. But we start off discussing the big trade of the hour as the Nationals traded away one of their top prospects cannon pitcher Jake Bennett to the Boston Red Sox for one of their top pitching prospects, Luis Parales. So, we'll just kind of break down that trade. But today's episode is brought to you by our friends at FanDuel. And if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanuel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. So, the Nationals made a pretty big trade yesterday out of nowhere. Also, Jeff Passen reported last night that the Nationals have traded Jake Bennett for one of the top pitching prospects from the Boston Red Sox, 22-year-old Luis Pales. So, first and foremost, this move is pretty sizable. I mean, you might look at it and in today's game, switching prospects and swapping prospects, it's not a trade that you really see happen too often. And this is really hasn't happened really all too much over the past few seasons. But the one of the first things that Paul Tabone has done here, he has now gotten Harry Ford via trade, a top prospect in the game, and now also Luis Pales, who is considered a top 50 prospect according to Just Baseball. and they really hone in on prospects talk and everything on there with our guy RM Leighton. But this is an interesting move from the Nationals and we will get into Jake Bennett leaving because he was actually someone that we were even talking about on yesterday's show as someone who could be in the starting rotation in 2026. But I want to talk about Luis Pales first and foremost because this is a very talented player that the Nationals are getting. Pal is first and foremost a 6 foot2 22 year old from the Boston Red Sox had some really good outings before he had Tommy John back early on in 2024 missed all the 2024 season basically came back at the later half of this season performed at the Arizona Fall League while the numbers are not very good from 2025 and the Arizona Fall League the stuff is there and if you remember Paul Timone's opening opening press conference, he was actually kind of asked about the stuff and how do you kind of go in on prospects? And yes, like he did mention that obviously results do matter, but they will take their chances on guys who have really good stuff. And if you look around organizations who have done this, the Padres's, the Blue Jays, the Yankees, all those teams, they take chances like this, and they want their prospects, their 22-year-old flamethrowing prospects to throw 100 miles per hour. They've got good secondary pitches, and I think that kind of fits what Luis Parales is. This is a very interesting move for Paul Tabone. This is obviously someone with Tabone coming from the Red Sox. Tabone has had his eyes set on Prowales for a while now. And I think that with this move, obviously your first thought is, oh, Tabone really likes this guy. And to give up Jake Bennett, by the way, Jake Bennett, I would also think is someone who Paul Tabone is very high on. One thing that I've taken from Paul Tabony at this point is that Connelly Early, he was someone that he mentioned a lot so far this off seasonason, someone that they kind of developed, who was a later round pick, you know, didn't have the best stuff coming out of college, but they worked with him, they got him in the lab, and now you see him starting in game three of the wild card at Yankee Stadium and pitching his you know what off. That is something that I think should not be slept on because I think Connelly Early and Jake Bennett have very similar profiles and so I looked at Jake Bennett as someone who may be that breakout prospect in 2026 that could help this rotation. So you are losing that factor of this, but now you get someone who has better stuff. And if we're talking ceilings, the ceiling for Parales is way higher than Jake Bennett. Now, here's the downside of this move. The floor, the floor is pretty low. And we can say that I think pretty confidently when you have these kind of moves like you are trying to hit home runs and obviously you guys follow baseball. Home run hitters tend to strike out a lot as well. That's kind of this move in my opinion. Is it going to be a disastrous move if everything fails? If Pales doesn't take shape and is not the best uh starting pitcher or whatever it could be, no, it's really not the end of the world. I think Jake Bennett will be a good MLB starting pitcher, but I don't know if he's going to have the exact ceiling that Parales has. And if you are the Nationals right now, you should be taking big swings like this. This is what makes sense. We'll get more into that move later on in the show today. But first and foremost, this is an exciting move. I saw this stat from the Arizona Fall League. And some people may say, "Well, we don't care how fast you throw ball four." Which, by the way, remember that sign that Mike Grizzo and Dave Martinez put up. I can tell you this much. Paul Tabone does care how fast you throw ball four. He wants you to be a flamethrower. And that is how it should be, by the way. That is what data is for nowadays. Like you look around baseball, it's not just your uh John Lannon anymore throwing a 90 mph fast ball from the left side. You want your right-handed pitcher to be throwing gas, and that is what wins nowadays. So yes, Paul Tabone does care how fast you throw ball four. But anyway, beyond that point, the Arizona Fall League number from Luis Pales. 43 pitches in the Arizona Fall League were thrown at 100 plus miles per hour. Luis Pales threw 20 of those pitches over 100, at least 100 miles per hour. That is a pretty impressive stat. And this is also coming from someone who is off of Tommy John's surgery. like he is on that same wavelength as Jake Bennett, recovering from Tommy John. Someone who just had it in early 2024, bounced back quickly, and now he might be making his way to the major leagues hopefully pretty soon here. This is again a very interesting move that I think not a lot of people expected, but as you may know if you're an everydayer out there, we talked about potential weird trades and Paul Tabone obviously coming from a player development background being very handson with prospects. Of course, this move makes sense when you look at it. Devin Pearson as well who was with Paul Tabone in the Boston Red Sox system and they have other data and analytics guys and scouts that are coming from the Red Sox. They obviously have some insider information. And oh by the way, not that Twitter indicates everything, but if you look at the Red Sox fans, they obviously love this guy. This is someone that with Parales, this organization, meaning the Red Sox, they were beating that drum for a long, long time. And this is someone who, by the way, has been on their 40man roster for the last few years because one interesting report from this whole thing, Andrew Golden had this yesterday that there is he has one more option left, one more optioner left with his major league contract. So, he is not making his major league debut obviously, but if you actually look at it, the if you make the 40man roster and you do not crack the opening day roster, then that counts as an optioner. So, Jake Bennett has three of those and Luis Pales only has one. Jake Bennett was just added to the Nationals 40man roster. you' you'd assume that he's going to start down in AAA or maybe even double A for the Red Sox, but you look at where the Nationals are today and you probably don't think he's going to make the opening day roster, but as you know, Paul Tabone and Blake Butra have both been saying this all off season long. They are going to preach competition. So, he will have a chance. We'll get more into that as the starting rotation. I've got my kind of rough draft of what we could be looking at on opening day and also down the line. And really, is Luis Parales a starter? I think that's a pretty major question that we should be asking. But at this point, just my gut feeling, I think the Nationals will work Parales as a starter. But I think ultimately the plan for him down the road, if he does not work out as a starter, he will be a back-end bullpen guy. He's got the stuff for it. He's got a really good splitter with a cutter and a slider that has some work to do. But I do think with those pitches looking really good down in the fall league. I mean, a lot of scouts were boots on the ground covering the Arizona Fall League raved about Luis Pales's stuff. And you might look at the whip, it's north of two that was just in the Arizona Fall League. Preto Tommy John. This was someone who is a legit big-time prospect and probably would have worked his way up to the major leagues this past season. Why did the Red Sox move off from him? I think it's probably because you look at the optioners, he only has one left. Jake Bennett has three. You've got a lot of guys in that starting rotation, a lot of young pitchers who are cracking down on trying to make the major league roster there. Like, you just run out of options. And at that point, you kind of risk the move of losing Luis Prowales at some point this season or some point next season. Let's say if his Tommy John recovery doesn't go up to subpar or whatever it could be. But the Nationals had patience in this. And I think that with where we are today, this is the move that you should be making. You should be trying to hit that home run. And I think Paul Tabone, like again, this is just a sign of the times that this is a new regime. And I do want to get into that because the way that this regime views baseball is different. And we have been with Mike Rizzo since 2009. And their philosophies of how they view the game, of how they build a team, it's different. I want to talk more about that and why this is the way to build a team moving forward. We'll tell you all about that and more after this. And today's episode is yes, brought to you by game uh FanDuel and the NFL Sundays. Move fast in one big play and suddenly everything feels different. That's what makes live betting with FanDuel so much fun. With FanDuel, you can place live bets as the action unfolds. Every drive, every momentum swing at every highlight moment. And if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanduel.com. And yes, live betting is best when the game starts to shift, a receiver gets hot, a defense tightens up for the momentum flips after a turnover like last night. Dolphins, Steelers. I saw that the Dolphins, they had that early lead, but I saw Aaron Rogers and the Steelers, they look pretty good. I bet the Steelers on the money line just when they got down early on in that game, and they ended up winning and covering the spread. I got to watch that Monday Night Football game while making money with our friends at FanDuel. So, you can do that with player props and update it as guys heat up. You can bet next touchdown scores like I did with John Smith yesterday. So, if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanuel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. FanDuel, the game moves fast and so can you. We're back here on Locked on Nationals as we will have a rough draft of the national starting rotation and if Luis Pales fits in that foundation for the Nationals. But I do want to get into this new regime kind of switch and the new philosophy in town that I have been begging for for the Nationals for years now at this point. And I think that this is off to a great start so far. If you look at this off seasonason, the Nationals have added, while not adding any major league talent, the Nationals are one of three teams, I believe, that has still yet to sign a major league player to their roster, no MLB contracts at this point. And it's kind of like, okay, Paul Tabone, do something, which he will eventually, but right now it's kind of like, okay, well, what's going on? But you say that and you look at it this way. You have added Harry Ford who might be the catcher of your future. A top 50 prospect, a top 10 catching prospect according to MLV.com and someone who is a first round pick a few years ago. He has been represented at the Futures game each of the past three seasons. And that is someone that I think will easily be in the foundation moving forward and someone who could be a very good offensive talent. And you got that for Jose A. FRA, a reliever who is obviously very talented who in my opinion actually kind of feels similar to what Luis Parales is, but you get that on a really good deal. So, check the box there. You might have the catcher of your dreams that we have been waiting for for years at this point when it comes to Harry Ford. And then second off, you now get a flamethrowing 6 foot2 right-handed pitcher who could be a starting pitcher, but also could be a very good bullpen piece down the road. In my mind, Parales will be a big-time major leager eventually. Where will he be, a bullpen piece or a starter? That's a different discussion for a different day. Lo and behold, you got yourself a very talented pitcher. I have wanted this for years. This is something that Mike Grizzo was not willing to do. Now, is it that he wasn't willing to do it or was he just not willing to take that chance? Mike Grizzo as a GM was known for taking chances. I mean, he is the one GM who probably would have pulled off a Janoto trade when he did and sure as heck he did a pretty good job in that deal. So that is something I think you can say that he was a risktaker in that department. But the analytics and how they get to these decisions is different. And this is how the Nationals will be run moving forward. You can see now and I think the proof is in the pudding with these moves. They are thinking about everything. They are thinking about 2026. They're thinking about 2029. They are thinking about 2032 with some of these moves and that is how it should be. The Nationals are now thinking with data and analytics and they are using these things and trying to find different ways to create wins and create value which by the way with just this Luis Pales trade, the MLB trade value, it shows that the Nationals crushed the Red Sox in this deal. And I like Jake Bennett a lot, but it shows you the ceiling of Parales and what he brings. It's not a knock on Jake Bennett. Jake Bennett is a very good pitcher who I think could be a three four starter at his peak with a major league roster. But Parales could be a 100 mile per hour flamethrowing starting pitcher or I think at worst could be an eighth inning setup guy that's really good and may have all-star potential down the road. That's kind of the guy that I think the Nationals are getting in this trade. And this decision has come with data and analytics and quote unquote good stuff. The good stuff is his secondary pitches, is his fast ball velocity, is his extension, the elite extension for a 6'2 pitcher. And Jake Bennett is 6'6. Like that is again a pretty big difference. and they are using these pieces and using the data and say, "Well, we know that Parales has really good stuff. He's got a good cutter. He's got a fast ball that runs up into the hundreds even post TomTommy John surgery and right after it, by the way. And this is someone that we could easily use in this foundation and trying to build this next Nationals postseason team. and someone who yes, while he only has one option your left, he is someone that could easily be in this rotation or the bullpen. Like you are seeing that the Nationals are not just saying, "Well, that guy's a top prospect and let's trade for him and let's give up one of our top prospects." Like, no, there's more that goes into these decisions. There's more that goes into these rather than being like, "Well, we saw him pitch at the Arizona Fall League. He's good and I think we should get him. And I'm not saying that's how Mike Rizzo got to these decisions. I think Rizzo obviously had Debarlo who's into analytics with him making some of these moves. But this just feels like an organizational shift. And I think we talked about it like when you first move off Mike Rizzo, you talk about like what went wrong and what was his ultimate downfall. And his ultimate downfall was not being able to adjust when it came to developing prospects. Developing prospects is a way more just nuanced thing. Now, if you look at it, like people say like it's not rocket science. It kind of is now. You are using data and analytics and you're forgetting what they are doing with their walk rate down in low way. You're forgetting what they do with their strikeout rate down in low way. You're not looking at his ZRA or his whip. You are looking at his extension and how he gets the velocity and how he's a north south pitcher that may throw off pitchers. you were looking at these different things that kind of gave you that competitive advantage and that is what data and analytics are about. you are now seeing that used by the Nationals. And I think this is a great case study in that facet because with this said, we kind of hit on this in the first segment when it comes to data and analytics. It's like trying to it's like signing a home run hitter. Like that is what Paul Tabone is. And I think that's what he probably will be moving forward. Paul Tabone is gonna point that bat Sandlot style, point it dead center field, and he's hoping to hit a home run. But also, when it comes to home run hitters, they might strike out sometimes, but when they connect, they hit that ball 450 dead center. And I think that this is going to be a prime example of what could be coming down the road. I don't think this is going to be the last move. I mean, we've talked about a Mackenzie Gore trade all off season. If they do trade him, I'd be fascinated to see the trade because I think in some cases it may be a little bit of an underwhelming return, but also obviously this is a very hands-on team. This is a very hands-on organization with Devin Pearson and his player development background, Paul Tabo Tabone, his player development background, even the manager Blake Buter coming from the Tampa Bay Rays and how they evaluate players. This is someone that the Nationals and Tabone and Pearson and maybe even Butra, maybe Debardlo, they have had their eyes sets on this guy and the way that they got to this decision is different. [clears throat] And if you asked me back in July when the Nationals moved off of Mike Rizzo, how should they approach these things? It's by making a change and the Nationals did that. You are seeing the philosophy shift right in front of your eyes. And that is the difference between the Mike Rizzo era and now the Paul Tabone era and the Nationals. It finally feels as if they are catching up into the 2020s. You're using data. You're using analytics. You're getting the correct technology in the building. So kudos to this team. I'm just happy to see a trade that really makes sense and I think that a lot of people can get behind this move as we've seen a lot of prospect reports being like the Nationals got what? Luis Parales like okay let's get it going. Let's let's do this thing. So Luis Pales is a Washington National. Jake Bennett is a Boston Red Sox and yes losing him sucks. I think he would be a very good pitcher in this team, but they obviously had their eyes sets on hitting that home run and who knows, we'll talk more about that and really what could be happening. But next, I want to get into this. What could the National starting rotation look like heading into 2026? I've got my rough draft. Does Luis Parales make it? That's a big question we'll tackle after this. Let me tell you about our friends at uh game time. And the World Cup is coming back to North America for the first time since 1994. And with 48 teams for the first time ever, it's going to be massive. You can make it even better with our friends at Game Time. 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Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Hers eventually who is coming back from Tommy John surgery as well. And now you've got Luis Pales. That is one, two, three, four, five, six, seven guys including Pales who without McKenzie Gore who could be making a push for this rotation. So here are the locks that I've got. I've got Kade Kavali as a lock for now. I think Kade Kavali is coming off a really impressive comeback from Tommy John when he had it back in 2022 or in 2023 rather. And I think that Kavali will definitely be in the rotation on opening day barring any injury. Josiah Gray, I think he will also be in this starting rotation barring any injury. And then I'm going to go with Jake Irvin as well. I think Jake Irvin, we've talked about potentially the Nationals non-tendering him. They did tender him a contract. No surprises there at this point. I would expect for him to be in this rotation as well. And then you've got the land of maybe misfit toys with Trevor Williams and Mitchell Parker. I don't know what the Nationals are going to do with Trevor Williams. I could see the Nationals saying it's your last year of your contract. You're coming off two pretty real injuries with this team and that kind of hindered your performance this past year. So, I think Trevor Williams will be in that Brad Lord role. And even then, we didn't even mention Brad Lord. I think he is someone who could be in this rotation mix. And that's eight guys without McKenzie Gore. DJ Hers. DJ Hers will be in this starting rotation. He will be. If he's not, then I don't know what's happening because I think DJ Hers is a very interesting guy to watch down the road. And we'll have more on that as the week goes on, as the days go on. But I really like what DJ Hurst can do. I think he's got an elite elite change up that is well above average of major league standards. I think that that pitch alone could easily get him in the starting rotation that's paired with a very high-risising fastball that's really interesting that does generate a lot of swings and misses as well. And then we get to Luis Pales. The outlook on him is we've touched on it a little bit at this point. Parales long term may be a bullpen piece but a good one but I think in the short term the Nationals have to try him as a starter and I think that's what they should be doing because that is what he has been brought up as. No one has ever made him an official bullpen piece. The Red Sox had really good results early on in his career before Tommy John as a starting pitcher. He had good strikeout numbers. He had some command issues. You saw a high walk rate, but I think that's something that as we have seen with the minors. There's a lot of tighter strike zones there with the automatic the ABS system that's already in place there. That kind of changes once you get up into the majors. But nowadays with baseball, who knows what the walk rates could look at. But I think that Prowace will be brought up as a starter, but will not be on the opening day roster. This is someone who's going to get like four, five starts down in Triple A, maybe even less, and work his way up into this rotation by June. Kind of similar to, this is going to be a deep throwback, but like to Craig Stamon back in the day. Craig Stamon the first year and a half was brought up with the Nationals as a starter was a starter in Major League Baseball for the Nationals on a pretty poor team that was rebuilding at that point. And then they moved him to the back end of the bullpen and that is when he had a decadel long career of being a incredible backend bullpen piece. That is kind of the way that I view Luis Pales. I'm not saying he's going to be a Craig Stamon. Like I don't know what kind of career that he has. I can tell you this though, just looking at it and kind of reading things, he's got better stuff than Craig Stamon. But I think that he is going to have that same kind of career where he starts off as a starter. Won't be on this opening day roster by the way. But then as you get deeper into his career, you're going to see the devastating splitter that will have a lot of work on that I think that a lot of people talked about in the Arizona Fall League. There have been reports like Keith Long last Keith Law from the Athletic who covers MLB prospects. He talked about his slider a little bit as well down in the fall league. And I think that these are pitches that kind of scream a bullpen piece down the road. A 100 plus mile per hour fastball sits 98 to 99. That is a really good piece that you're going to have in the back end of this bullpen, but will be a starter at first. So just looking at it right now, my rough draft without McKenzie Gore is this. Cade Kabali, Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin, and I do believe it's going to be uh uh what's his face? Trevor Trevor Williams at first, and then Mitchell Parker might just be your long-term relief, and then at the five spot will more than likely be Brad Lord, unless they see a bullpen arm from him as well. So, that's kind of your rough draft. Luis Pales will work his way into the rotation eventually. Let me know what you think about this. Let me know what you think about the trade. As the Nationals, they have traded off Jake Bennett, one of their second round picks a few years ago for Luis Pales, a flamethrowing right-handed pitcher at 22 years old who has worked his way up through AAA and will be making his major league debut at some point this season. So, let me know what you think about the trade. I really like this move. This shows a philosophy switch with the Nationals and I love it. So, we will catch you guys on the flip side. We'll talk more about this move and also more of the impacts from leaving Jake Bennett because again I really liked him and I thought that he could be a really good starting pitcher. So we'll get into the impact of that but also what could be coming down the road for the Washington Nationals. I'll catch you guys on the flip side. Have a good one. Go Nats.

Washington Nationals shake up their pitching future with a bold swap: top prospect Jake Bennett heads to the Boston Red Sox, while flame-throwing right-hander Luis Perales joins DC’s rotation mix. Is this high-upside gamble the spark the Nationals need for a rebuild under Paul Toboni’s new data-driven regime? Ryan Clary breaks down the implications of the Nationals’ evolving player development approach, the contrast with the Mike Rizzo era, and how analytics and player options now shape roster moves. Key topics include Harry Ford’s potential at catcher, Perales’ electric arsenal post-Tommy John surgery, and a rough draft of the Nationals’ projected 2026 starting rotation. The conversation explores whether Perales can emerge as a frontline starter or dynamic bullpen weapon, and how these changes might impact future playoff hopes. Will the Nationals’ shift to analytics pay off in the long run?

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00:00 “Nats Trade: Jake Bennett for Luis Perales”

04:48 “Perales Trade: High-Ceiling Move”

08:06 “Surprising Prospect Move Analyzed”

11:38 Nationals’ Pitching Prospects Dilemma

14:16 Nationals’ Rebuilding Progress Analyzed

20:26 “Data-Driven Pitching Strategy”

22:04 Nationals Embrace Analytics Revolution

25:26 Nationals 2026 Rotation Preview

29:31 “Starter to Bullpen Success Story”