The Denver Nuggets Are Actually Insane

The Denver Nuggets Are Actually Insane

After winning a championship in 2023, the Denver Nuggets spent the following two seasons actively getting worse. First, they lost their sixth man on a team that only ran like six and a half players deep. Then the following off season, they lost their starting shooting guard and replaced him with Russell Westbrook. While they did see internal improvement from some of their young guys and even gave OKC a run for their money in round two, they needed to shake things up big time if they wanted to compete for the 2026 championship. Luckily, they did shake things up. And so far, it's really working. Working so well, in fact, that I'd go as far as to say that this Nuggets team is notably better than the title team from a few years ago. So, let's discuss what Denver did to improve this team so drastically, as well as what their odds look like against OKC in their likely inevitable rematch. Hello everybody, welcome to Rusty Bucket. Subscribe to the channel and drop a like on this video. Trying to hit 50K subs, so that subscription would be much appreciated. We are very close to that mark. So, seriously, if you're trying to get that, get me to that finish line. I would really appreciate it. And if you are on mobile, go ahead and hype the video. It is the best way to make the video do better in the algorithm. First, let's talk about the Cam Johnson/ Michael Porter Jr. trade. First of all, it is wild the amount of people that I have seen saying that Denver lost this trade. Yeah, Michael Porter Jr. is playing better in Brooklyn, but that's because he's in Brooklyn. There was never a world where Cam Johnson was going to put up better numbers than Michael Porter Jr. this year. It's a difference of opportunity. And it's wild to me that people think just because MPJ's averaging 26, that means this is an automatic failure. Cam started the season really rough. He was missing a lot of shots. And it was concerning to me because not only was he missing shots, it seemed like his aggressiveness and his approach, like he was just out of place and out of character. His first 11 games, he averaged 7.2 points per game, shooting 21% on three and a half three-point attempts per game. In his last couple of games, he is at 15.2. 2 points per game, shooting 48.5% on 5.5 three-point attempts. A lot more similar to like what he looked like on the Phoenix Suns, which was more or less what I was expecting from him this year. It took him some time to get comfortable, but he's right back as the player that he was supposed to be. Is he as good as Michael Porter Jr.? Probably not. You probably got me there. But it was not just about Cam Johnson. This trade was not just a oneforone swap, especially given that the Nuggets included a pick. It was to clear salary cap room so they could sign Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., as well as trade for Yonis Valenunis. And all three of them have been massive additions. As much as depth is king in the NBA in recent years, in 2023, Denver only had six rotation pieces playing more than 18 minutes a game. Bruce was a very important sixth man for them as he would basically tag in for any of the five starters to breathe for a second. Like he would play anywhere from point guard to small forward and when Joic was on the floor it would be Aaron Gordon at the center position and like Michael Porter Jr. at the four or he would sub in for one of the guards like whatever it was. He was basically letting one of the starters breathe and then old man Jeff Green as well as a young Christian Brown got some minutes and sometimes it went okay but for the most part Denver was really only trying to play those six guys more than 30 minutes, more than 20 minutes even. I believe Jeff Green averaged like 17 in that playoff run. But that wasn't ideal for a team approach, especially after losing Bruce Brown. Bruce has not been as good as he was in Denver in 2023, which I was kind of curious about because I wasn't sure if he had actually fallen off or if there was just a different context because players who play with Jokic just kind of inherently look better. So, he's not been as good as he was then, but he's still been pretty good. less minutes and therefore less production and his efficiency could be better, but he is still passing the eye test as an at least 80% as good version of him as he was in 2023 and he's doing it for no [ __ ] money. So, it's quite a bargain. Tim Hardaway Jr. was a perfect minimum contract addition. He has been the real sixman for them thus far. He is putting up 12.2 2 points, shooting a careerhigh 54.7% on his two-pointers, as well as a career-high 41.4% on his threes on 5.83 point attempts per game. There probably will be somewhat of a dip in the numbers department because he likes to take some kind of bad shots, but he's getting really clean looks in this offense. And like I just mentioned with Joic, a lot of players have their best efficiency seasons when they are playing with Joic. So, if he ended up putting up these exact numbers throughout the entirety of the season, I wouldn't be surprised at all. And for $3 million, again, that is an absolute bargain. Now, Yonas Malachunis I was skeptical of because first of all, I just didn't really like him as a player. And then second of all, he's making $11 million to play essentially like 12 minutes a game. But so far, I've been very wrong because as he only plays 12.8 8 minutes, but he's about as effective in those minutes as any player getting such a limited minutes is. Like he is a superstar in the 13 minutes or under category. He is putting up 8 and a half points, 4.7 rebounds with 1.3 of those being offensive rebounds. And he is shooting 61% on 5.52-point attempts per game. When Nicoola Joic sits, Yonas Valenunis scores really damn well in his limited time. his per 36 numbers are 24 and 13. That's absolutely bonkers. So when Joic is sitting out, they still have a very good scoring presence out of their big man. Obviously, he's not bringing the same level of playmaking, but at least having a guy who you can just dump the ball to and he's probably going to get a pretty good look on a hook shot or a short fadeaway. That is a really nice thing and convenient team for this team to have when they haven't had a good backup center for Nola Joic since before they won a championship. And speaking of Joic sitting, a big issue with this team, even when they won the title, was that the offense would plummet without him. In the 2023 playoffs, Denver was 7 and 12 points worse without Joic. And in the regular season, they were 18.8 points worse without him. In last year's playoffs, the issue got even worse as Denver was 10.4 points worse offensively without Jokic in the playoffs and 20.1 points worse in the regular season. This year, the regular season difference is just 13, which for it being 18 and 20 before that is pretty damn good. So that means the ceiling for that team is being raised rather substantially. the floor for the team without Jokic has been raised pretty substantially. And I think the difference is actually better than the 13-point swing would indicate as Jokic has just been so ridiculous this year that their offensive rating without him is still good. Like Jokic, they have a 130.1 offensive rating, which would just be by far and away the biggest in the league. And without him, they have a 116.8 eight offensive rating, which is still.9 points better than a league average offense. So being average without him as opposed to dog [ __ ] Yeah, average still ain't great, but it's a lot better than dog [ __ ] As for our boy Jokic, he is having the best season of his career so far, at least purely statistically speaking. He's averaging 29 and a half points per game, which is the fifth most in the league. He's averaging 12.3 rebounds, which is number one in the league. 10.9 assists, which is number one in the league. He is shooting 70% on his two-pointers and 42 1.5% on his threes, taking nearly five per game, which is a careerhigh. He also, and this is something that I think has gone under mentioned with Denver this year, has a careerhigh 7.2 free throw attempts per game. He has been trying to generate fouls more. He has done a couple of foul baits. I know it's a nasty, nasty sin, but even Nola Jokic does it sometimes. And as a result, he is getting the easiest offense in the game more frequently, and that is a victory. While he is only fifth in the league in points per game, A, we're in a league where four players are averaging 30 plus, and B, he is the most efficient near 30 point per game scorer in the league. So, he's the most efficient high volume scorer in the league. He's number one in rebounds, number one in assists. It's ridiculous. He is He is shooting like 60, 40, and whatever his free throw percentages. Like, it it's it's really crazy. Jokic putting up ridiculous stats is nothing new. What has really caught my eye this year is Denver's second and third best guys for the past few years now, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. Let's start with Aaron. He is at a point where I fully believe in his three-point shot. He was shooting 44.4% on careerhigh volume before he got hurt, taking 4.8 threes a game. Last year, he shot 43% in the regular season and 38% in the playoffs. However, I was still skeptical of his overall three-point shot because his volume was low. Teams were still persistently leaving him open. But at the start of the year, he looked like a damn sniper. And his shooting mechanics are different. His confidence is different. Like shooting can actually be more of a vibes thing than you would think because there's a bunch of stats for it, but simultaneously like the way the shots are given, the way that they are taken, like it contextualizes the percentage. So the fact he's shooting 44 12% on wide open threes or more likely than not open threes makes me think if the defense starts paying more attention to him, won't shoot 44%, but he'll still be at like a respectable 37% on high volume. And for the first time, defenses will not be leaving him wide open as a strategy. If his three ball is real, their starting lineup basically has no weaknesses offensively. Helping off of him was the goto move in the last three playoff runs for Denver. That might be out of the equation now. Jamal Murray might make his first Allstar appearance this year. His numbers are bumped a little bit by his 52-point game where he shot 10 for 11 from three. Honestly, that game may be the most impressive shooting performance I ever saw because not only did he go 10 for 11 from three, like over half of them were pull up three-pointers with a defender in his face. Like actually wild [ __ ] You can also say the same for Aaron Gordon's numbers because he had a 50 piece to start the season. But one way or the other, both of these guys have been better beyond those games individually. And for Jamal Murray, he has career highs across the board. This is the highest points per game he's ever averaged at 24.4. Highest assist he's ever averaged at 6.9. Nice. Highest free throw attempts, three-point attempts, three-point percentage he is shooting 44%. And his highest two-point percentage. If he keeps this up and Denver remains the two seed or even like a top four seed in the Western Conference, I think he has a really good case for being an all-star. But the praise does not stop there as in Aaron Gordon's absence, Payton Watson has stepped up and shown that he has come further along offensively. I've not been a big fan of Pton Watson because while he is a very good defensive player, his offense has persistently been kind of ass, specifically his three-point shooting. But as a starter, he is averaging 14.9 points per game, and he is shooting 42 and a half% on 3.8 three-point attempts per game. I also want to highlight a guy that I called out as someone to look out for in the summer league because he was balling alongside Dron Holmes, who has unfortunately only played two games. I don't know if he got hurt or if he's just not getting the opportunity, but whatever it is, Spencer Jones was a guy who was balling alongside him, and he has been doing really good in his limited time. He's shooting 45% from three and 72% from two-point range. And he's playing some pretty damn good defense, too. He even started nine games and put up eight points and four rebounds in 24 minutes, shooting 44% on 2.7 three-point attempts per game. I don't necessarily think that that means that he's going to be like a 25 minute per game role player come playoff time, but the fact that they have him as an option, he'll probably still be a somewhat prominent rotation piece in the playoffs, this team is just going so much deeper. The only player that I don't have great things to say about is Christian Brown, as he has only played 11 games and his three-point shooting has been abysmal. His percentages last year were okay, but it's one of those cases of like, yeah, you can shoot an okay percentage in the regular season, but are you actually a good three-point shooter? Last year's playoffs proved no. No, he's not. But they have more options now if he's throwing up bricks. Like the Denver Nuggets were regularly throwing out lineups with Russell Westbrook and Christian Brown and Aaron Gordon. And now they do not have to have Russ or Brown. They can have Tim Hardaway Jr. or Spencer Jones, some lights out three-point shooter. Still Aaron Gordon, who is now kind of a lights out three-point shooter. As a whole, Denver has the number one offensive rating in the NBA. And here's a really impressive stat for you. They are third in assists while being 27th in turnovers. This is one of the most efficient passing offenses the NBA has ever seen thus far this year. They are 23rd in three-point attempts, which is actually kind of high for them. They have been in the bottom two or three for the past couple of years, and they are second in three-point percentage. So, they've increased their volume and become one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in all of basketball. They are overall third in net rating behind obviously OKC as well as the Houston Rockets. This is the most well-rounded, best shooting, and deepest Denver Nuggets roster that there has been in the Nicola Joic era. They legit run 10 players deep when again they ran 6 and 12 players deep in 2023. Their biggest weak link offensively, Aaron Gordon has entirely revitalized his jump shot. Now, Christian Brown is really their biggest weak link offensively, at least in the spacing department. But with all that said, is that enough to beat OKC this year? Yeah, they are better than they were when they won a championship, but when they won a championship, they did not run into any team even remotely as good as this year's OKC Thunder. The Nuggets are unfortunately also 18th in defensive rating. Though, it is worth mentioning that they were 15th in defensive rating in the regular season and in 2023, and then they stepped it up in the playoffs. So, it's not necessarily like some damning stat, but it's noteworthy. And Aaron Gordon has been out and he is their best defender. So, I do think they're better than 18th. Of course, last year they did push OKC to seven games, but I think OKC will be a lot tougher this time around. Like, as dominant as the Thunder were, they did have a pretty long period in the playoffs in general, a pretty decent amount of time where they looked pretty rough around the edges. I think those rough edges are going to be rather refined for their second run. Chat will almost certainly be better. They have AJ Mitchell now and usually for a budding dynasty, the first one is harder than the second one. Obviously, the last time that we saw a dynasty on the comeup, they blew it for the second one. So, take that for what you will, but historically speaking, like the second one comes easier. Jokic had one of his worst ever playoff series versus OKC. So that is also a concern. Bear in mind for Joic worst playoff series is still 2814 and six because he's one of the best players who's ever played the game. But his efficiency was down. He didn't close the series super strong. He was taking too many threes. It felt like either he did not have the stamina to deal with the bruising inside the paint or rather simply he was trying to make up for the fact that the team was not very good at shooting threes so he was like I guess I'll [ __ ] do it. But he had a game where he went like 0 for 10 from outside. Last year Denver relied on Russell Westbrook as a three-point shooter. Do you understand me? He shot really well in the first round series against the Clippers but only shot 21% on 4.6 six attempts per game in the playoffs last year. This time around, instead of Russ taking those shots, it's going to be Tim Hardaway Jr. who is a really damn good shooter. After that, in the rotation for them that year, it was Payton Watson and Julian Strawther. They have better options now. Payton is better, and I personally buy him as well as Aaron Gordon having at least noteworthy offensive leaps. Cam Johnson looks as good as he ever has on a contender lately. and Jamal. Jamal seems like he won't be sleepwalking, at least in the regular season anymore. I picked them to beat OKC going into the year, which was definitely contradictory to most people predicted OKC to repeat. Part of the reason I went against it is that I just I haven't seen a team repeat in the 2020s. So, I'm kind of just like I'm not going to bet on it until I see it happen. However, OKC has been so absurd this year that I don't know if I still feel that way. But I still think that if anyone would topple this team, it will probably be the Nuggets. Their game against the Spurs the other day was definitely a kind of positive indicator in that direction as well. But I don't and the Spurs maybe Spurs maybe as well. But I will ultimately choose OKC to beat Denver. However, I like I am taking that take back. I don't I don't actually believe that as much because yeah, Denver got better, but OKC got even better, but it's probably still going to be very close. It's still going to be a hell of a series and it's still going to be one that is very much winnable for the Denver Nuggets because they are the best they have ever been. This is the most deep team that Nicola Joic has ever been on. And that was their number one weakness through years and years and years of still being a really good ass team because they have Nola Joic. So now that he has legitimate help both on the higher end, but also on the lower end, I really feel strongly that Denver is as good as ever. With that said, that is the end of this video. Thank you so much for watching and goodbye.

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0:00 Intro
1:10 Trade Regrets?
6:26 Nokic
9:57 Shots
13:54 Big Picture

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