BREAKING NEWS: Cincinnati Reds Sign Caleb Ferguson: Reaction, Fit in the Bullpen & What It Means

BREAKING NEWS: Cincinnati Reds Sign Caleb Ferguson: Reaction, Fit in the Bullpen & What It Means

The Reds have addressed a position of need. 
They've done it with a local guy. No, not that one. It's Caleb Ferguson, the left-handed pitcher, 
signs with the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday. Welcome in everybody. Chatterbox Reds, Craig Sandlin, 
joined by Nick Kirby. Nick, the Reds checked at least one item off their wish list this holiday 
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omahastak.com promo code chatterbox. Awesome. Well, we mentioned it before, but the uh the wish 
list for the Reds is uh slowly being addressed, Nick. I mean, obviously a lot of fans would 
have liked uh some bigger splashes and maybe some some announcements earlier on, but here we 
are nonetheless. And announced today on Tuesday, the Reds and Caleb Ferguson agreed to a one-year 
deal. Their left-handed reliever spent last year uh split between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the 
Seattle Mariners. Uh let's just start with your initial reaction to the to the signing. Obviously, 
this was a position of the need of need for the Reds. Yeah, I mean uh this was a a underrated 
position. I think everyone's bat bat bat bat bat. We need the bat. Well, the Reds desperately needed 
a lefty that nothing points better than last year. Reds were facing the Padres's. They pretty 
much led and controlled the game the whole game. Padres's left-handed batter Gavin Sheets comes 
up. He can't hit a lefty to save his life. One of the worst hitters in baseball. Left on left. 
Rez just had no one that could could get lefties out. And he hits a three-run home run. completely 
flipped that game. And I'm sure you could find multiple other examples where the Reds got burned 
just because they didn't have a good lefty. Um, this this guy Caleb Ferguson checks every single 
box. There's a lot of good things to like about him. There's a few things that are concerning, but 
you're always going to have that with a reliever unless you're you're going out and um, you know, 
signing Josh her or one of the the absolute top relievers that the Reds are just never going to 
get. Um, you're always going to have that. And I I I like this move a lot for the Reds. Yeah, I 
think obviously the the most obvious uh outside of a power hitter, the biggest need obviously 
for this Reds team was bullpen and specifically a left-hander. Uh Graham Ashcraft last year 
and and Brent Sudter kind of filled that role, but uh beyond that, they didn't really have a 
whole lot of depth options. Sam Maul spent a lot of the season in in Louisville. I would imagine, 
Nick, that they'll still um whether it be through a a signing or or just somebody that they have in 
the organization. I don't think that they're just going to rock with Caleb Ferguson and Graham 
Ashcraft as their lone left-handed options, but we'll have to see how uh Sam Maul or others. 
What you mean Sam? You said you said rock with Caleb Ferguson and Graham Ashcraft as their 
lone left-hand. Yeah, Sam Maul. Um I well they brought in Graeme Ashcraft last year so much 
to face lefties. Um he almost is a lefty. Yes, exactly. So um yeah, I don't think that they're 
going to rock with that, but uh nonetheless uh obviously a position of need and and knock 
that out. All right, so let's talk about Caleb Ferguson first. Let's start with the good Nick. 
Obviously there's a lot here to talk about uh that intrigues the Reds. What stood out to you as uh 
as uh when you were looking into Caleb Ferguson after the announcement here today? Well, he's 
a very balanced pitcher. I mean, he throws four different pitches and throws them all over 22 uh% 
of the time. Throws his four seam fast ball 32%, the cutter 23%, the sinker 23%, and the slurve 
22%. Uh four seam fast averages 94 miles per hour. So, not not a super soft tossing lefty. you 
might think um when you look at kind of some of his other attributes does throw decently hard for 
especially for a lefty. Uh his cutter and his sink are graded as his two best pitches um by stuff 
plus but all of his pitches graded about average um overall which for average pitches is a good 
thing you know um and he's absolutely elite at soft contact. He ranked in the 99th percentile 
in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and in the 100th percentile in hard hit 
percentage. Uh, and how about this stat, Craig? He has an elite home run rate. 0.55 home 
runs per nine since 2022. That is third best among 280 pitchers in baseball that have thrown 
200 plus innings only behind the now former MLB pitcher Emanuel Class A and Devin Williams. So 
um absolutely elite at keeping the ball in the ballpark which when you pitch your home games at 
Great America ballpark that's certainly something good and he dominated absolutely dominated lefties 
which is the most encouraging thing. Lefties hit just a buck 84 465 OPS in 2025 against him. Zero 
home runs in 103 at bats against lefties. And his career numbers against lefties have been 
pretty good. 220 average, 654 OPS in over 500 uh career uh plate appearances. Yeah, zero 
home runs obviously stands out amongst that and certainly something that I would imagine the 
Reds were extremely interested in when they were going through and kind of looking at who made 
sense from a bullpen composition perspective. And you mentioned the home run rate. You talked 
about his average exit VO, the barrel percentage, hard hit percentage, and all of those stood out 
to me and to many others on social media that are kind of talking about this signing. And I did 
was doing some research and came across a unique comparison that I thought was interesting. When 
you're talking about percent uh those percentiles and uh for those that are watching on YouTube, 
you'll be able to see this. For those that are listening uh in the podcast version, I'll I'll go 
through some of them, but none other than Brent Sudter. If you look at Brent Sudter's 2023, which 
is the year before the Cincinnati Reds signed him, and compare that to Caleb Ferguson's 2025, they 
are very, very similar, both of them, with elite barrel percentages and with hard hit percentages. 
Uh they're uh essentially the exact same uh picture in terms of the results on the page. So, 
it was interesting to me going through this and and identifying some unique areas that they kind 
of stood out. Brent Sudter back in 2023 was in the 100th percentile at average exit VLOO at just 84 
miles per hour. You mentioned Caleb Ferguson, he's at 84.8. Barrel percentage for Brent Sudter back 
in 2023, 97th percentile. Hard hit percentage, 99th percentile. Extension and ground ball 
rate, both very good as well. Um, look, I I I think that obviously in 2025, Brent Sudter 
was left in a position a lot of times where maybe uh he wasn't put in a position to have those 
numbers ultimately be positive because he was in mop-up roles a lot or whatever, but in 2024, 
the year that the Reds signed him, he was really good for the Reds. And I think that Caleb Ferguson 
can bring something very similar to this bullpen as well. Yeah, that's a great kind of comp, 
Craig. He does things a little bit, you know, differently. I think he probably has more upside 
just because he throws a little bit harder. And he also actually is better against lefties where 
Sudter was just kind of this this weird pitcher that was better against righties or close to even. 
You really didn't couldn't really use him as a lefty specialist. Um Ferguson, you can use him 
in strategic roles that can really help you win that individual game where Sudter deserves all the 
credit in the world for what he did the last two years for the Reds. I mean, he constantly saved 
the the the bullpen. Um, was a valuable pitcher for the Reds. Um, but Z last year, I don't I don't 
know what to make of his overall numbers. Like you said, they they were very skewed, but he also is 
going to be 36 years old as well, where Ferguson's 30 years old. So, um, I'm not I wouldn't again I 
wouldn't be against bringing Brett Sudter back, but I think it would probably have to be almost 
on a minor league deal for me at this point. Um, and if someone wants to give a major league 
deal, you know, hey, that that that more power to them. Um, yeah, that that's that's a good 
comp. I I do think Fergus has a higher upside, but if you're expecting better than what Sudter 
gave you in 2024, that's probably unrealistic as well. Yeah. Now, let's let's transition now to 
the to the bad, Nick. And obviously some concerns um with Ferguson's 2025. Uh let's talk about kind 
of the trends that maybe people were seeing and why there maybe could be some concern for Ferguson 
going into 2026. Yeah, he had a career low uh strikeout rate and it was uh by a mile, Greg. He 
was at 7.0 in 2025. It's a guy that was over 11 in 2024, pitched a full season in 2024, and he had 
never been below 9.6. So, it's kind of strange to have a pitcher uh his strikeout rate plummet that 
bad, but he was still incredibly effective. So, that's kind of a reason where you go, okay, maybe 
there's a red flag. Also, there's been pitchers though that have had weird seasons where they 
didn't strike a lot of guys out. I believe Ailio Pagan, the year before he came to the Reds, had 
a really bad strikeout rate or a career um what's the word I'm looking for? outlier year right 
before he came to the Reds if I remember correctly and it it corrected itself. So that's something 
to keep in in note. Probably thing that's more concerning in my opinion than the strikeout 
rate would be that his batting average and balls in play and his home runs per fly ball were 
by far the lowest of his career. Those are things that traditionally I think you see more kind of 
come up to bite someone. But again, relievers, as I've said a million times, and I'll say it a 
million more times, they're always a crapshoot. Um, that's why I don't really want to ever go out 
and spend $20 million on a reliever unless it's a bonafide superstar. Um, and if not, you kind of 
want to probably dip into the pool of about the 5 million range. We don't know how much the signing 
is for yet. I'm sure by the time I release this video, it'll be out. Uh, but this is kind of the 
the the pool I think the Reds want to swim in the most. Deep South Commodities is a proud supporter 
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get help. It's okay not to be okay. All right, so they've got their left-handed reliever. Now, 
Nick, question obviously turns now to what's next? And there's conversations of course about is 
there a need to continue to add to this bullpen. Obviously a bat is still something that the Reds 
seem inclined to be going after. Um but again, we don't know what the number is. The budget for 
2026 could be dwindling and dwindling fast. Yeah, I think so. I think that this signing here 
with Ferguson probably just had more to do with the lefty market exploding really. On uh on 
Tuesday, Gregory Sodto signs with the Pirates. Uh Caleb Thiar signs with the Cubs. Um so you're 
really running out of left-handed options and I felt kind of felt like the Reds said, "Hey, 
we better try to strike now with the guy that probably wants to come to the Reds." Home not 
hometown guy, but played in Columbus. I'm sure that coming back to Ohio was attractive to him. 
Um, and so yeah, I think that probably had more to do with it than anything. But yeah, the Red's 
budget at this point is is is pretty much at least close to spent unless they're going to have 
an 11th hour um increase, which I don't think any of us see coming. Now, there's creative 
ways, Craig, to get around that. Obviously, you have Singer that basically you could add at 
12 million to at any point if you trade him. Um, Gavin Lux you can add 5 million to. Um, and 
Spencer Steer four and a half, Tyler Stevenson over six. I mean, there's $25 million right there. 
I don't think you want to trade all those guys, but uh you could you could trade Lux and Singer 
and have a $17 million to basically go spend. So, I think that's probably the option. I I'm hesitant 
to trade Singer. I'm I'm very hesitant. I know we had some fun discussions in our our Discord. Um 
I I personally I would rather trade like Leolo and Lux and use that like 10 12ish million to 
get a bat and also know I'm getting some really good prospects possibly back for Lolo as a trading 
singer where you're not getting much of anything back. Gavin Lux you're not getting anything 
of real value back. Um so the Reds will have to be creative and I think they will. I think 
they're going to get a bat. I just don't know how how intense of a bat it's going to be or how 
happy it's happy it's going to make this fan base. My assumption is uh whatever bat the Reds get is 
probably not going to excite 90% of this fan base. A couple a couple names that I know you have been 
eyeing uh recently signed with other teams. Josh Bell, Adoulles Garcia, both off the off the block. 
So certainly going to have to try and be creative here. Obviously, there are still names out there 
that are intriguing. Ryan O'Harn amongst them. Uh but nonetheless, the Reds are going to have 
to make a move sooner than later. It feels like uh I don't know about you, but it just doesn't 
feel like guys are going to be hanging around in the free agent market as long as they have maybe 
in years past. I don't know why that is. Maybe it's due to a potential impending lockout. Maybe 
it's something else related to the market overall. But it doesn't feel like this is a year where 
you're going to be able to wait till February to add an impact bat um to the roster. At least 
not somebody that you know will excite the fan base per se. And so uh they're certainly going to 
need to make a move sooner than later. And whether that's in the free agent market or via trade like 
you said is certainly to be seen. I think a lot of people on social wanted to argue with me. I put 
it out a couple days ago asking the question about the Catel Marte trade and what a package might 
look like. And you know, so some people in the Discord agreed with me, but maybe some people 
on social didn't. And the question is, what do other teams look at from a value perspective for 
guys like Nick Looo or Andrew Abbott who could potentially be on the trade block for the Reds? 
And you mentioned you'd rather trade Looo than Brady Singer. And one of the talking points, 
of course, is Brady Singer's consistency and availability. And Lil Doolo obviously has probably 
a higher ceiling than Brady Singer, but has obviously missed time historically over the course 
of his career uh basically every year. And so how much do teams devalue his overall value based on 
that? And if we as fans are constantly knocking him for missing time, certainly other teams are 
doing the same. And so what does a package look like in order to go out and get a Catel Marte 
if he is truly available or somebody else yet to be seen but um certainly you would think that it 
has to start around starting pitching and either Brady Singer or Nicolo seems to be the answer 
there. It's just a matter of value, I think. And um I don't know, you've got Brady Singer with a 
one-year remaining on uh availability or in his uh team control or you've got Nick Lola who has 
multiple but may miss time for you. So, I don't know. Um I'm with you though. I think, you know, 
I'd rather potentially sell high on a guy like Nicolola who had a pretty good year last year uh 
with the understanding that he's probably going to miss time and uh and keep Brady Singer. But I also 
understand the attractiveness of Nicoladillo's team control uh and keeping him around. So I'm I'm 
okay either way. Just go get a bat. I think that's the really the moral of the story, Nick, is go get 
a bat one way or another. You got to get a bat. Within reason, in my opin I don't think the Red 
should do something crazy. I I I don't subscribe to the idea the Red should be going all in in 
2026. I I had that mindset for for years here. I just the Brewers don't ever go all in and 
everyone wants to be the Brewers, but no one wants to actually do what the Brewers does. The includes 
I think this fan base and it includes the Red's ownership. I don't know about the front office. 
I don't know if it's because of ownership that they don't go full Brewers. Uh but that's what 
the Red should be. I don't understand why anyone doesn't want to follow the Brewers mold. I really 
uh don't don't get it at all. Uh the Marte rumors kind of I guess got squashed a little bit. There 
was a report I think that came out last night that basically it was just the Diamondbacks trying to 
drum up interest. The more that I've heard and kind of looked into Marte, it just seems like the 
Diamondbacks are going to think that Noel Marte should or not Marte Cel Marte uh should bring back 
more than Hunter Green. Like I think they think they should get Hunter Green and someone else. And 
I think the Reds think that if they traded Hunter Green to the Diamondbacks, this could tell Marte 
and someone else, which is why I just don't think either side's ever going to go far enough to make 
that deal happen. Um, I think that that one of the sides would have to have one of those players uh 
that they've reportedly have some sort of turmoil with in some capacity really just it sour so bad 
that they have to really cave. And I don't I just don't think either one of those sides are going to 
do that with two players that are both superstars at their respective positions. Yeah. Well, and 
so much of it is is price, right? I mean, Catel Marte is under contract for um I think even longer 
than Hunter Green, but at a much higher rate. And um age obviously plays into it. Catel Marte 
older than Hunter Green. Um, Hunter Green's value compared to similar pitchers is just unreal with 
the contract that he's under right now. And so, um, certainly agree with the Reds that he should 
be valued unbelievably high and it's going to take an absolute killer offer to to pry him away. Um, I 
don't know that the Diamondbacks are viewing those two in the same way as the Reds. And so certainly 
would be shocked to see that deal get done, but would certainly be a deal that would intrigue 
uh the Reds as it pertains to improving to for 2026. But nonetheless, there's no doubt they need 
an outfielder, Nick. I I know there's there's uh there's plenty of conversation to be had 
around Will Benson and around Noelvie Marte and around DJ Fredel and all these guys, but 
like I don't think there's any way in 2026 that you can go into the season with guys like Gavin 
Lux pencled into being a DH at any point in the year. Um Spencer Steer will have an opportunity. 
Sal Stewart will probably have an opportunity, but you have to add at bat. Can we at least agree 
on that? I agree with that. at bat. I don't think it has to be an outfielder, especially if you're 
moving Spencer Seir to the outfield. Spencer Sears is going to be playing left field. Uh I don't 
think it has to be an outfielder. Uh, I think I agree they have to add a bat, but I think the I 
think it makes more sense to add a bat that's a DH because I think that a bat that's a first base 
DH, you can get a much better value for a guy than a guy that can play outfield defense at the level 
that Terry Francona demands, which is my favorite quality about Terry Francona is that he demands 
high level of defense because his team has not prioritized that for years and I love that they've 
done that. But I I do think I think you can get a a much better hitter like uh like the low the low 
LA not brothers the LWE uh one's low one's low. Either one of those guys are basically just pure 
hitters. That to me is better than going out and getting a guy that's an outfielder that is not a 
better hitter but can play defense. I just think that that's kind of the way to do it. And then you 
kind of mix and match with the outfield options um that you have. Now, if there's an outfielder 
that just kind of falls in the Red's lap and it it fits, yeah, that's fine. More than fine. 
That would be great. But me personally, I'd rather get the guy that I know is has a much 
higher upside as a as a bat than a guy that just can be a actual legitimate outfielder, if that 
makes sense. Yeah. No, that's that's totally fair. I don't know that I'm really sold on Spencer 
Steer playing left field every day. I'm just gonna be brutally honest with you. I understand that I 
don't want him playing first base every day. Um, I don't necessarily know that I'm ready to move 
him to left field every day either, though. So, that's like part of this conversation in terms of 
I'm not playing him every day. Well, I know you're you're not playing anybody every day really. I 
think there's probably like three guys that you're playing every day and that's it. But, no, I get 
I get what you're saying. Um, I I don't know that I'm ready to rely on him to be my right-handed 
platoon bat in left field. Um, if that's what it ends up being, but uh we'll see what the Reds 
decide to do. And as always, Chatterbox Reds will be your home of breaking news. Anytime it does, we 
will uh make sure we have you covered with content as soon as we can, both on YouTube and wherever 
you find your podcast. Of course, follow us on social media, CBOS Sports across all platforms. 
And uh we got you covered there. Nick, what's coming up on the uh old YouTube rundown? We're 
going to do uh we're going to record with Mike Hart here uh in the near future, maybe tonight, 
and probably be out, what is today? Tuesday, I think Thursday morning. put out a little video 
on the Red's Hall of Fame announcement. Shout out Reggie Sanders. Uh I'm going to save it, but 
I'm going to save my excitement for uh for that podcast because I'm uh really excited about 
that. And then obviously any other breaking news, we got all kinds of content here on on on 
Chatterbox Sports. I know Off the Bench and the Stone Shield shows have been uh uh flying uh 
this week. They've been a lot of interest uh uh with the Cincinnati Bengals and uh uh the non I 
guess uh movement with the uh coaching staff. So, be sure to check those guys out. They do great 
work. 10 a.m. to noon, Monday through Friday, available everywhere you get podcast. Chatterbox 
Bearcats, Flying Lion podcast for SC Cincinnati fans. We got it all here on Chatterbox Sports 
in your episode notes below in podcast form. If you're on YouTube, brothers and sisters, just 
start clicking around. Plenty of content to be had for sure. And uh Nick and I will be back anytime 
there's any breaking news, hopefully with a with a hitter sometime soon. Make sure you have those 
notifications turned on. Click the little bell in the corner if you haven't already and uh subscribe 
to the channel. We certainly appreciate it. Until next time for Nick Kirby, I'm Craig Sailing. This 
has been Chatterbox Reds. We'll see you next time. [Applause] [Music] Hey, hey, hey. [Applause] [Music]

The Cincinnati Reds have signed left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson, and in this video we break down everything Reds fans need to know. We give our initial reaction to the signing, discuss why the Reds targeted Ferguson, and evaluate how he fits into the 2025 bullpen under Nick Krall and Terry Francona.

Ferguson brings experience as a left-handed bullpen arm with strong underlying numbers, including his ability to limit home runs and handle high-leverage situations. We dive into his recent performance, usage trends, and what the Reds are betting on moving forward. Is he a reliable matchup lefty? Can he be trusted late in games? And how does he compare to other bullpen options already on the roster?

We also take an honest look at the concerns with Ferguson’s profile, including command inconsistency, platoon splits, and whether his results will translate to Great American Ball Park. Plus, we discuss best-case and worst-case scenarios, potential bullpen roles, and how this signing impacts the Reds’ overall offseason strategy.

If you’re looking for a balanced breakdown of the good and the bad of the Caleb Ferguson signing — with context, analytics, and roster fit — this is the video for you.

Topics Covered:

Caleb Ferguson signing reaction

Why the Reds targeted Ferguson

Bullpen fit and potential role

Strengths: home run suppression & experience

Concerns: command, consistency, ballpark fit

What this means for the Reds bullpen in 2025

🔔 Subscribe for more Cincinnati Reds offseason coverage, roster breakdowns, and in-depth analysis all year long.