TUCKER DEAL LIKE OHTANI? | SLOW BREGMAN MARKET | Cubs Baseball Rumors
There really hasn’t been one time through this Kyle Tucker free agency where I felt like the Cubs were serious about signing him, but something could change with a report that came out from Jeff Pass. Is he okay deferring his contract? And would the Cubs consider that? They didn’t with Show Otani, but moving forward, we’re going to talk about that. Also, Alex Bregman, the market isn’t as good as he thought. Could that help the Cubs sign him? We’re going to talk about two of the most coveted free agents on the market right now on the Cubs baseball channel. Like, subscribe, thumbs up. Don’t forget about Avenue D. That’s our QR code right there to join Mick Nation. Let’s get this party started. Great to see you guys. And uh as I say every day, go Cubs go. [music] [music] What do you say everybody? Mick Gillespie Cubs baseball channel. And here we are, one day closer to Christmas. Happy Hanukkah to all of our uh Jewish watchers. And thank you guys for hanging out no matter where you might be across the world right now. Hope you’re having a great holiday season. All right, let’s get into this right now because I never thought from the minute that this started that the Cubs had a chance to get Kyle Tucker. I really didn’t. You know, we we talk about Kelshi, which is the prediction market. Kelchi doesn’t have the Cubs listed anywhere near the top of where he could potentially be picked up, right? They got the Blue Jays and the Dodgers. And you keep hearing about all these other teams. Cub’s way down on the list. And it’s because of the deal that he’s projected to get, right? And and what is that deal? I mean, you’re talking about 350 to$425 million. Now, that blows the Jason Hayward deal out of the water, which was the Cubs biggest deal of all time. The difference is is that Kyle Tucker is not just a little bit better than Jason Hayward, he’s a lot better than Jason Hayward. Uh Theo Epstein when he made that deal made an an epic miss because Hayward never lived up to the contract. I feel like Kyle Tucker is a guy who will live up to the contract. I think he’s going to be a good player. Now, I don’t know if he’s going to be good for what uh Kylie McDaniel of ESPN says is going to be 11 years and $418 million, but I think at least for the next foreseeable future, just the way that his game works, how good he is at plate discipline, and what we saw at the, you know, when he was with Houston in the beginning of his Cubs tenure tells me that he is someone who uh could really, really be special for the Cubs. Now, Shoi Otani did the $700 million contract and the Dodgers only pay him $2 million per year for the next 10 years, right? So, they deferred $680 million of this contract, which means that um you know, a contract should cost about 46 million a year and they’re paying two million a year, right? As far as the luxury tax goes. So, when you talk about this contract and what it could be worth for the Cubs, the fact that they’re starting to say that maybe there’d be interest in deferring part of the contract tells me that maybe the Cubs might be a little bit more interested in 11 years, $400 million, $400 million if it wasn’t sucking the life out of what their uh, you know, money available would be, right? um the Cubs would have to pay, you know, if if you said, “Okay, 11 years, $418 million like the ESPN projection, then that would mean you’d pay 19 per year over 11 years as opposed to 38 million if you were able defer to to defer some of the money.” Now, the problem with the deferment of the money is you don’t want to be like the Cincinnati Reds. And what was it a couple of years ago? The Red’s highest paid player was Ken Griffy Jr. and he’d been out of baseball in like a lifetime, you know? So, I mean, you you you mortgage the future when you do a deal like this. But then again, if you’re the Dodgers, you’ve won backtoback World Series, you’re selling more merch than anybody else, you’re the hottest brand in sports, you know, it it becomes worth it, you know. And when you talk about the international market with what they did with Otani, you know, they’ve given themselves an an an entirely new revenue source with all of the people from uh you know, the J Japan and surrounding countries that are in love with Show Otani. Now, I don’t know that this is the same type of thing with Tucker. Matter of fact, I don’t think he’s as good as Show Otani batting and he can’t pitch, right? So, we’re not talking about the same guy. But what I am saying is if the Cubs want to win a World Series, there’s only a handful of these guys who are super elite players. And I saw it with Tucker and I saw how bad he was when he was hurt, but when he was healthy, he was so good. And I really believe in what he could potentially do for a team. He may end up in Toronto. I don’t know. But the deferment idea makes a lot more sense to me if I’m the Cubs because, you know, maybe you can you can kick the can down the road a little bit, win now, make up that money later. Just interesting. Some of you guys are going to say, “What do you think?” I still don’t think we’re in on this guy. I don’t think we’re in on this guy. Um, I I part of the reason is and I don’t think that Marquee Sports Network’s failure has to do with this particular deal, but they’re not making any money. So, they don’t have the money that they would have gotten off of that, which the Dodgers can say they do have from their TV network to throw in for contracts like this. But at at the same time, uh, when the Cubs win, the world’s great. [laughter] So, you know, you win a World Series, look, 2016, biggest parade uh in the history of baseball, right? Sixth biggest parade in in world history. That’s what Cubs fans are all about. That’s why you got to consider winning here. And I think that when I read the comments, you guys feel like the Cubs aren’t serious about winning, that they are just trying to be a team that contends, but they’re not trying to be a World Series champion. That’s just your comments. I’m not saying that’s my opinion. But having a Kyle Tucker come back would certainly be one of those areas where you’d probably feel pretty good about the future. Now, this is another one. Um, I saw the headline and I’m like, whoa. Uh, the headline was Alex Bregman signs with the Cubs, and four other landing spots in a slow market, right? Um, that’s from Austin Konowski. Okay. Um, I I just saw it on Yahoo Sports. So, my initial like when I saw this like, oh, wait a second. I got I got a new show. We just get Bragman. I don’t I didn’t I don’t know about this. No, we didn’t. A little bit clickbaitish, but I’m fine with that. Look, I’m not holding Alex or anybody at Yahoo um hostage for hitting us with the clickbait. I think it’s part of the job now. But when you talk about Bregman, you’re talking about the best third baseman that I feel like that’s been on the market like this in a long time. He was with Houston last year. We went through the same thing. He signed with the Red Sox. He had an opt out. He took the opt out and now here we go. Now, do you consider Bo Buchette a third baseman? You know, we I’ve heard in the past that maybe the Cubs were interested in trading for him. Um, I don’t know. I I I feel like the Cubs from the reports that I get and and and my you the people that I talk to that the Cubs are serious about Bregman if they got the right deal, but they’re not going to overpay and they refuse to overpay for anybody, let alone Bregman. And I think part of that is some of these deals that they’ve had in the past. And when I look around the team and I’m like, okay, so Ian Hap’s making $20 million. Um, you know, come on, you know, maybe you overpaid for some positions there. Dansby Swanson. I know shortstop’s a tough position to fill, you know, but he guy’s making a ton of money. Are you willing to go out and take the risk for Bregman? Well, Bregman’s a 31-year-old guy. When he was healthy last year, the Red Sox got going. I mean, they really did. The other thing is that the Cubs are left-handed heavy, and we, you know, we keep talking about that. They need another right-handed bat. They need somebody from that side of the plate. Could it be uh Yeno Suarez who was with the Diamondbacks and then went to Seattle? He’s someone else, but you know, he’s just not as attractive as Bregman because of Bregman’s entire game. When you mix in the defense, when you you mix in the the clutch hitting, you know, uh I feel like that, you know, they feel like I feel like they feel like Breman would be the best guy for that particular situation. So, I I don’t know. But what I will say is the free agent market isn’t as robust as it was in the past. Now it was for Otani, but there’s one show Otani. There’s only one guy that can come in and pitch like he can and then and then obviously hit and be an MVP from the DH position without even pitching. Right. Looking at this situation, the Cubs are going to continue to be patient. They’re not going to jump the gun and try to make a deal until they feel like they’re getting the best for their for their buck. I I wish that they would have kind of had the same concept with Ian Hap because I look at that contract with a no trade clause and I’m like I I’m not I’m just not satisfied with $20 million to a left fielder. No offense to him and I know he’s a gold glover and all that, but just it just never was to me a deal that I would have made. Um, and then you got Seiya Suzuki who I thought last year was Mr. Clutch in the big games and and I that’s fine. That’s what I want. And I thought he he was a lot better defensively down the stretch than he was in the past. I hope that continues. You’re going to have Owen Casey. You’re going to have Moyes Bisteros unless something drastically changes, but you got to have that right-handed bat to kind of even everything out. I just feel like this is a guy to take to take seriously to the Cubs. I I just that’s just a gut feeling of mine. They they know that there is a magic about knowing how to win big games and you can’t take that away from Houston and that’s where Kyle Tucker came from and that’s where Alex Bregman came from. And it’s not a surprise to me that both of those guys helped their teams get to the postseason last year and that’s why the Cubs want those kind of guys around the locker room next year. All right. Anyway, look, thank you for being here. Avenue D. Hit our Qo Q QR code right there, Mick Nation, and be a part of what we’re doing. Um, we’re And again, it’s college football time. We’re putting our our money down on this Alabama versus uh Oklahoma College Football Playoff game. Bears games are on there. 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This Episode:
– Tucker Contract Projection Points To Ohtani Deal Possibility
– Reading The Alex Bregman Market
– Tucker Predicted to…Kalshi.com
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Mick Gillispie has covered the Chicago Cubs since 2007 and has been a fan of the team since the 1984 season. He has broadcasted spring training games or been heard on Cubs.com, MLB.com, 670 The Score, WGN, CSN-Chicago and Marquee Sports Network. He is an award winning play-by-play voice for the Tennessee Smokies Cubs Double-A Affiliate. He has also hosted many forums over the years at Cubs Convention including Down on The Farm
22 comments
The Cubs won't do anything. All the Ricketts care about is lining their pockets with cash and the fans don't care.
Is Tucker a 400M player? I do not believe so.
Tucker is a good but not a great player. He’s extremely overrated. He’s not worth 300 or even 400 million but I know one team will wind up paying him that and I’m sure he’ll be on the DL the very first season. The first of many DL stints with that new contract.
Tucker isn’t worth the asking price or else he would’ve have been signed by now. Dodgers offered him three years. He isn’t Soto, Guerrero, or Ohtani, so he might want to bring that asking price down.
Hey Mick. Matt Shaw is righ handed lol. He's only going to get better. I already think he's better than Bregman on defense
I feel like the Cubs want to let the kids play and hope a couple of them break out and play over their projections. I see them letting the veterans play out their contracts and move on. Kids and veterans who have bounced around the bigs are cheap and that is obviously appealing to the small market minded Cubs. Has Tom Ricketts been having dinner with Jerry Reinsdorf? They seem to forget they are in Chicago not Cleveland.
This team isnt gonna do shit. Theyll use Bellastarios, Cassie, and Shaw as reasons not to spend on offensive upgrades and they refuse to spend on a big pitcher FA
As far as Bregman goes, the chime in geniuses 😂😂 already have Shaw in the Hall of Fame! 😮 Over the past year I've seen some of the most unbelievable comparisons of Shaw to Santo, Schmidt, Robinson, Rose and Brock! 😮😮😂😂. So let's break down what the geniuses are saying. 😮 He has more power than Santo and Schmidt, the foot work of Brooks Robinson, the batting 👁🗨 eye of Pete Rose with his unbelievable solid 220 some batting average all year! 😮😂. Just recently I saw him mentioned with Lou Brock with his blinding speed! 😮😂. WHAT????? So the geniuses have him as the greatest third baseman ever! 😮😮 So why the Bregman conversation at all? 😮😮😂
If they don't get Bregman. They should at least get Suarez I hope
Fans don't want Tucker. His feels got hurt being booed as well. Mick keeps saying he is greatest ever. 50HR a year Great? He was Avg at best. Bellinger was a better fit for Cubs.
We don't want Bregman either. I love Shaw at 3rd. A trash can Astro not needed. The pitchers the Cubs didnt go all in on like Cease is the crazy part. Need Pitching!
Cubs have stadium upgrades to payoff. Be another decade before we pay the noney Tucker asking for. Kashi has him to Blue Jays.
Mick, Seriously, I don't want either Tucker or Bregman! I want Caissie & Shaw and Mo Baller too!!!
Not interested at all in overpaying for an aging veteran that want superstar money in Bregman no way stick with Shaw spend that money upgrading the rotation and bullpen and let the kids play.
How much does Cubs TV and streaming revenues and merch increase if they pony up for Tatsuya Imai
If the expectation is that Shaw hits .240+ with 24ish HR. Which, isn't an unrealistic expectation, then the Cubs shouldn't sign Bregman. They should sign Eugenio Suárez. Less money, more power. As far as Deferred money, that's a slippery slope especially since I believe MLB will address Deferred contract amounts vs CBT total contract. If I'm an MLB Owner, I'd be very cautious with the amount of Deferred contracts I have.
Seiya Suzuki: AB 571, H140, HR 32, BA .245 WAR 2.6
Kyle Tucker: AB 500, H133, HR 22, BA .266 WAR 4.6
Are these Kyle Tucker stats, enough better than Suzuki to justify the teams largest salary in history? Are those stats good enough to justify NOT signing a #1, #2 SP? Because ya can't have both. Or…at least you won't get both.
1) Bregman is a cheater and should be banned for life. Pass 2) Tucker was only ok, and is the most boring ball player I've ever seen in my life. Pass. 3) Bellinger is better than both of them offensively, significantly better defensively, is versatile enough to give other guys a rest, already a crowd favorite, and just a fun ball player to watch…why isn't he already a Cub?
My brother and I were talking about Bregman. The discussion was about Bregman has hit in Boston and Houston, which are both right hand friendly ballparks. Wrigley hasn't been a great hitters ballpark the last few years. I'm not sure he has enough power to put up great numbers at Wrigley. He could be another Swanson, which isn't bad but might not be worth a large contract.
Tucker for 400 million hard pass.
Tucker Reminds me a lot of Kris Bryant. Do you take that chance? The Cubs didn’t so that should answer that question.
The Cubs are not smart enough to sign a guy who can do it all, including stealing bases. Thats Tucker. Had they made him an solid offer at the all-star break, he wouldn't have shut it down. THAT GUY IS NOT STUPID! They better sign Bellinger, cause Tucker ain't coming here.
That is not how the luxury tax works. Team payroll for luxury tax calculation is based on the present day value, which is $46M. Not the $2M/year he's paid right now, not the fictitious $70M/year from the headlines. The "I don't want to be paying this guy 20 years from now" mentality if also flawed. That "present day value" is also critical in how you view things, and it is straight, simple math. Using Ohtani as an example. $46M isn't arbitrary, you really can use it to see how the numbers work. Each year, you could pay Shohei $2M and invest the other $44M, where it sits for 10 years. To turn that $44M into the $68M to owe in 10 years, you only need 4.45% return! Do you know how much money that $44M becomes after 10 years if the return is 8% (which is conservative in the history of the US stock market)? $95M. In other words, 10 years from now you pay Shohei his $68M and the Dodgers pockets the other $27M. And then that happens 9 more times.