A Big Night For Chet Holmgren vs Minnesota Timberwolves? | NBA Player Props & Best Bets (12/19/25)
Welcome to the NBA Coast to Coast podcast brought to you by lineups.com. Nate and Josh coming to you on a Friday. Closing out this work week with five NBA games on the slate tonight before a big one tomorrow. Once again, another 10 gamer. But we’re looking at best bets in this one with also player props as well. Bringing both of those to you in one episode moving forward, even each and every weekday. So, make sure you are subscribed to the channel. Continue to follow along with us all season. Let’s go ahead and get into the first game we’re talking about here. First game on the slate. We got the Celtics. We got the Heat. And you do like the Heat to cover on a backtoback here. >> Yeah, I don’t think they really gave a full go necessarily at Brooklyn. Uh, by the way, Josh went five five and one yesterday. G giving the people an extra pick uh with with you out. So, uh, just wanted to pat myself on the back there. But, >> yeah, the Heat Celtics, it it tends to be kind of a slobber knocker. Uh, they did sit Hero last night. Ple Larson as well. I I could see Hero coming back for this one. They don’t necessarily need him uh to keep this one close because they just defend what the Celtics want to do. Well, what this iteration of the Celtics want to do. They’ve gotten smacked the last couple of years uh with with the Jason Tatum Celtics and all that, but this year with the Jaylen Brown Celtics, uh the Heat, I mean, they’re number two against isolation. Uh they’re number one against mid-range in terms of percentage and number two and above the break three percentage. So absolutely tailor made to defend the Celtics. Um as as underdogs this year, they’ve done very well against the spread. They’ve done well with the rest disadvantage as well. And they have slowed it down a little bit lately and and and their defense has been very good on the road. So I was actually leaning under. I know you’re you’re thinking the other way on the total, but either way, I think we can agree that Boston maybe hit a peak of their in their market a couple weeks ago and they’ve started to show some cracks in terms of just not catching teams by surprise as much. Um, and then that Miami with with Spolstra at the controls will have some things in store for them both offensively and defensively. Boston in the last six is is the worst team in the league defending the rim and they defensively try to limit threes but the the heat I mean they can’t even really hit threes right now. So they want to get to the rim and if Boston’s not defending the rim that’s that’s really the key for me on that side of the ball as far as Norman Powell and company attacking the rim. >> Yeah, I I’m I’m with it because of of how Miami played yesterday. Um giving guys a bit of a break in the second half when they finally started to pull away from the Nets. Um and and we’ll see like you said about Hero. I I don’t know if they need him or not cuz I truly don’t know the impact he has on this team yet um since he’s been back. It just kind of seems like they’re kind of the same bunch with or without him honestly and maybe a little bit better at times without him. But um the the key to me for this one is actually going to be the total and and I know that this actually moved down from 235 to I’m sorry 233 I believe to 231. So it’s moved slightly. I don’t think that’s like a ton of action necessarily, but I like I can’t get away from the Heat’s pace. And when I also look at the way that the Celtics play against teams that play with pace, those those games tend they tend to to match that stuff and and really they’re not necessarily matching the pace all the time, but they are matching or they are playing really well on offense. And that might be what you’re referring to as like a peak that they’ve hit at some point recently, which was like how do you get that much better at offense when you don’t play that fast anyway and you don’t have quite the shooters on the floor that you have when you have Chris Staps and Drew and Jason Tatum on the floor with you. Uh, but you still have plenty of it for sure. And and I think against the Heat the key is just go just they’re they’re gonna be they’re gonna have an imbalanced defense at times because the Heat are going to push the tempo on offense enough that that does leave them susceptible. Like this the Heat are still a top five defense in the NBA. They’re just tough to go under against because they’re also playing faster than any team in the NBA by two points per 100. That’s how much faster they are than the second place team in in Chicago in terms of pace. So, like they’re going to keep that thing moving and it hasn’t mattered who’s on the floor from Drew Smith all the way to DaVon Mitchell who you might think slows things down, but that’s just not the uh the directive now from on high. Uh and and I do like uh like some some uh Jaylen Brown stuff tonight, too. I do like it’s all high, so I’m not going to go ahead and like play these thin margins of like him to get 30 points or whatever all the time, but he’s doing it consistently. This would be a team you do it against when you look at the uh the transition stuff for them. They are bottom 10 in the last seven. Uh and on the season bottom 12 in terms of the Heat’s transition defense. Something that I know that uh definitely does not help when Tyler Hero is in. So Hero being in would mean like less Yo uh Yoic. Yoic I don’t think is playing more less Hakez. And Hakez is that guy that can play defense in the uh in transition for you. And if there’s a little bit less Kell Wear because of Tyler Herro too. Less rim protection, less rebounding uh and a lot more offense and pace I think in this one. So I still just like points. Yeah, hero playing would would be key for this for sure. Um, I mean, just a a weak link for the Celtics to pick at as well defensively and maybe you want to think about White or Pritchard props if we do have Hero in there. Moving to the other East game though, also like the dog here. I mean, holy rest advantage. This is like this is like so outsiz you have to like adjust everything. uh when the Sixers have been off since December 14th. The Knicks have played thrice since the 13th, including last night in a tough one, and we could still be without Cat and Hart and Mitch. We’ll see. Um OG and Brunson have now played 75 minutes in the last three nights. U this is the fourth backto-back of the season for the Knicks. They were able to beat like a really weak Washington and Charlotte team. Uh but they also got smacked by Orlando on the other backto-back. So, in the new Tibs era, we’ll see how they respond to this short rest spot. But the Sixers, especially Maxi, who’s been off since December 7th since he had a little illness. So, he is extremely rested. And I’ll remind you, he dropped 40 on a 150 offensive rating the one time he got two days rest this year. Obviously came out like a bat out of hell to start the season. So, I think this is a nice way to play it is like you can adjust the lineup and and take Maxi to get 25 points, which is below his prop. He has averaged 31 and a half his last two against Knicks despite really awful shooting splits. 39 10% and he’s playing much better at this point this year. Um I I mean I don’t know what the matchup is for him. Mikuel I guess gives it a shot. Um he’s he’s he is one of those guys who OG one of the few guys OG cannot deal with, right? Uh OG pretty much guard everybody in the NBA. Um and then you look at Paul George pretty good. still pretty good uh last time we saw him and now he gets like a full week arrest. Um he’s he’s playing really well on both ends of the floor. Uh gonna be an issue for a tired OG or Muel Bridges. Um just flagging that Sixers are number one in fourth quarter points per game allowed for whatever reason. And they’re also 8-2 ATS on the road. Just just some things that fit into this as far as them giving the Knicks a good game here at the Garden. >> Yeah, I think they probably win. Uh I the only thing that that might help the Knicks is like they also play really well with rest and now Hart uh it would be coming back with a bunch of rest. Cat would be coming back with a bunch of rest and those are two guys that benefit a ton from having at least two days of rest and now they haven’t played since Tuesday. So um obviously they also probably went out to the clubs on Tuesday after the win. So we’ll give them legitimately two days of rest. Wednesday doesn’t count. They were just nursing hangovers those days. Uh most likely. But for for Hart also like the the big difference like he goes up at like two in everything essentially on his props when he has two plus days of rest especially when you compare it to to one or fewer days of rest for him. It’s just not even the same player and that’s why they went out. So I do fully expect hard in there. I also think that Cat plays and I could see Mitch Rob not playing or being dependent on if Joel plays that kind of stuff. A little bit cat and mouse with the the injury reports. But I do think Maxi is going to go absolutely off and we know Bridges is going to play. Um, and I do think Brunson does too. So, like I don’t think OG is going to be the one sitting. But yeah, the two guys OG can’t guard in the NBA. Tyresese Maxi, TJ McConnell. Can’t do it. Just for some reason can’t do it. Uh, but for Josh Hart, like I said, I I do think I’m just going to go in on his prop on this one on the boards. Uh, I would love the boards for him when he’s playing the the 76ers. Also, keep an eye out whenever he’s playing the Pacers. Love those two matchups for him all the time. Uh, the Pacers because they they’re just a a team full of wings that he can rebound against this squad because you got to box out Joel. Um, and you you’ve got to focus on making sure he’s not getting offensive boards, which he started doing in the last couple games. And I actually like the fact that Joel started boarding as a sort of uh, yeah, a feather in the cap of this over for Hart because of the fact that it means that we need to worry about him. And I say we because I’m a Knicks fan. Uh, but they they need to worry about uh, Joel Embiid on the offensive boards. They also need to worry about Dominic Barlo on the offensive boards. That’s something that he’s really just all he’s there for on offense is to do that, set screens, and be the, you know, off ball guy from that standpoint. So, I think Josh Hart comes in and has a really good game rebounding and I do think he plays. I wouldn’t be upset with anything like P for him as a whole as well. I just like this one uh the most and like a double double type of night for him. >> Yeah, I mean that’d be an interesting way to to play it is is is juicing up um with with the points and the rebounds and and maybe um yeah, playing around with the spread as well, saying this is going to be a competitive game. Therefore, Josh Hart’s going to play his his normal load minutes and and with the extra rest, like you said, he his his stats do tend to spike. Player props, we got Chet at Minnesota, right? And he’s he’s a hometown kid who loves stepping up in Minnesota. He’s m former Mr. Basketball in Minnesota. So, that’s part of the narrative. But really, I I what I found is that he’s just been playing a lot better since JDub has gotten in the lineup um all season. I mean, 115 offensive rating before JDub returns. is now a 133 offensive rating. Moved up to 20.8 points, eight rebounds, shooting 54% from deep in fewer minutes per game because they’ve been blowing teams out, right? But I know it’s trending plus seven and a half for the Wolves right now. Um if certainly if Ant Edwards goes, this is going to look like another war between the the Wolves and the Thunder. Um the Wolves though, last 10 have been kind of weird, weirdly awful defending the rim. We don’t know if Goar is going to be able to hang in this matchup. Um so I mean they’ve been bad against and and inconsistent guarding the above the break three and Chad yeah I mean he’s just been getting it done. You look at the last eight um here averaging 21 and8 and that includes you know one of the rare unders was against WMY in the Spurs in the cup game. uh also went under against Minnesota, but that was without JDub. And I think it’s just kind of opens things up a little bit more in terms of not having to be that number two in terms of the spacing that the Thunder able to to develop with with JDub out there. That really helps Chad. And I’ll also say interesting plus 145 here at at DraftKings for him to get three stocks. Uh which is something he does pretty frequently and and an aggressive Minnesota team and guys like Randall and Nas that have struggled against this Thunder defense. I could definitely see him getting some stocks out of that. >> Yeah. No, it makes sense. Uh we’ll see if iHeart’s out there. Definitely frees him up for even more stocks if he’s not one-on-one with a guy like Rudy out there or even Jay Will. Like I I just know that they’ll they’ll probably turn to the two big lineup even if it’s Jay Jaylin Williams starting at the five and Chad at the four or iHeart if he’s available uh in this one. But I don’t think we have that injury report yet. And yeah, I still love Chad. I I like the points mostly, especially if he is playing center and it’s just him versus Rudy, then yeah, Rudy’s not trying to come out there and Chad’s just going to be spraying, which was a good look last night against Zubach, who also does not want to come out of his hideyhole next to the rim. But Ant was seen at shootaround, and that’s partly why this went from seven and a half so quickly to seven and probably six and a half in a minute uh because he’s really good at basketball, so he’s going to impact that. Uh, but I think the assists are low in a matchup where like when I’m looking at the primary ball handler against OKC. Um, Ant is not a guy that you can be like, Alex Cruso, you got this. Kesan, you got this. Like Kesan’s gonna do great. Lud Dor, if he’s the guy, he’s going to do great. They’re all awesome. This is Ant Edwards, dude. There’s like five guys, six guys in the league that you’re like, I don’t care that he’s playing the Thunder. Uh, he’s still going to need to be double teamed, in which case he’s going to find guys open in the corner against a bottom three corner defense, which is purposeful. That’s what Dag Dags does is keep that corner a little bit open because he knows that that’s where probably the worst shooter is. So, some Jaden McDaniels uh threes in the corner. If Nas gets the minutes, I do like Nas points. Even though we’ve talked about him struggling uh with the if he gets the minutes, the PR, but if he’s at like 24, I can’t get there with it. And Ant being in kind of just makes me go, I don’t know why I would bet on anybody else. This is truly the sun in the universe and the touches are going to be so high for him that the the the likelihood of him getting the points is great. It’s 24 and a half. Uh which is probably a bit of the thunder and maybe another point depressing it uh down because of uh the the injury tag for him, right? So all that stuff goes well if he is healthy, which it seems like he is because I think he legitimately could have played last game and they were like why would we why would we do this right now with him? Uh let’s keep him off the floor. Bad loss. Really bad loss ended up being for them. Uh but doesn’t matter. Like they were like that’s fine. We want to try to beat the Thunder. And that’s what Ants can be out there for. He has averaged about 12 potentials against them in the last five regular season games, not including those those um th those playoff matchups. Uh so I think you’re not going to see this type of plus 112 for him at four and a half. He’s consistently at five and a half when everyone expects him to play full minutes and he’s healthy. >> Love this look. Yeah, this is an absolute data mine right here in a in a game that’s otherwise hard to find value against the Thunder. Uh because yeah, they they limit the ball handlers so much and they what do they give up? they give up threes because because of how they limit. So, I mean, Ant’s going to be kicking it out to to JDM and Nas and guys who can hit these threes. U, he’s also trying to fix his biggest issue in the playoffs, which was the the read and react stuff, right, and making the right decisions as a playmaker. So, I definitely could see him playmaking and I could I could see him going six or seven dimes here if you do want to get even juicier with it. Atlanta on a backto-back hosting the Spurs uh on Kanu. And I I originally was thinking 16 and a half points uh straight up for him. If if WBY is out or or you hear that WBY has a very strict minutes limit here on a is the Spurs on a back toback, then I think you’d take the points and rebounds or maybe the whole P. Uh but it’s just a situation where Kongu is going to play probably like 35 minutes a game, which is where he’s at with Zinger. When Zinger is out, um he’s also 25 years old, so he’s played more on backto-backs this year on five back tobacks. He’s averaged 199 and four. um and has not shot particularly well from three to get those points. But in the matchup against Wemby or Cornet, you know, whoever it is, I like to take a center that can shoot threes that steps out and be like, well, I’m not going to go in there and challenge these these giant stalks. Uh I’m going to I’m going to take it from the perimeter. And I mean, limited minutes for Trey Young that will set him up more, right? Uh he has more three-point attempts when Trey has uh been out there in in his career. Um Jaylen Johnson obviously creating for him as well. He went three for five in just 25 minutes against the Spurs last time out and got 15 points with WBY active. So it just lines up I think I think for him to do some damage from three and then he probably gets over the points anyway um in in just a situation where that it should be pretty high scoring. >> Yeah, I think it it will be. I I I can’t imagine WBY is not on a minutes. I know he played 17 last night but like so what? like he he was he was coming off of the the cup and he’s already been on a minutes limit. He shouldn’t have played last night really and then they still but whatever. Uh he played 17 and now he’s uh he’s probably going to be out there at most for 20 tonight. Uh yeah, he’s he’s there’s no question tag next to him. Yeah, I don’t care. I still like Okongu especially on the points as well like and and the three should be there if uh especially if Cornett is that guy. We doesn’t really want to come out either, but definitely Cornette doesn’t want to come out. Um speaking of uh the Hawks though, I’m just going to close out with Trey under. Uh it’s a similar situation like it’s a it’s a backto-back. He was on a minutes limit last night a strict 20 minutes came out did not play more than 20 and that’s why it was dangerous if anyone was like oh Trey’s back let me go under on Jaylen Johnson. I was like Jaylen Johnson is still going to go off on the Hornets. Uh which he did with 43 plus points 43 points I believe. Yeah he he’s very good at basketball. But Trey is uh not going to be there to sort of get in his way I’ll say as he has this season. 26 and a half Pra. I mean look he had 10 dimes against the Hornets last night in 20 minutes. That’s absurd. Uh but he he’s also not necessarily going to be able to get his shot off. I I think he will either get Stefon Castle more likely he gets uh like Devin Vel I would imagine uh who also is a plus defender on the wing there. Definitely uh Rangy is is basically a forward size is going to be good enough to to deal with Trey and go over the screens. They’re just going to hedge the crap out of that with him which is another reason to like Okongu. The Spurs do give up a lot more to the role man. If you wanted to leave assists out of this and just go like under 17 and a half points, under like one and a half boards that to that degree, you know, 18 19 and a half PR, I’m okay with it because obviously at at the end of the day, if Trey’s got the ball in his hands for 20 minutes, he’s going to probably have like 15 potential assists if he knows that he’s not going to be back in. But this is a good defense, much much better defense than the uh than the Hornets. And it’s also a team that’s going to play a lot slower than the Hornets. So, I just don’t think it’s going to be there for Trey like that in this one. >> And they have really good defensive guards. they don’t necessarily have the big wings to deal with Jaylen Johnson, right? So, I I could continue to see him be like try to work his way back into what is now maybe Jaylen Johnson’s team, not Trey Young’s team. And and that may might mean the potential assists are not as high as we’ve seen in the past. If you go on the streets of Atlanta and poll them about whose team this is, who do you think they’re going to say? They want Jaylen Johnson for sure. So, that’s all the time we got here in this one. We will be back on Monday with more action for you. We got plenty of NFL looks for you as well for this weekend. So, make sure you are subscribed to the channel.
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Today, Josh and Nate break down the Miami Heat vs Boston Celtic game with some other top NBA player prop picks and best bets for December 19th, giving you expert insights and up-to-date betting advice backed by injury news and trends.
0:00 – Intro
0:25 – Heat vs Celtics Preview
4:54 – Tyrese Maxey Prop
7:57 – Josh Hart Prop
9:14 – Chet Holmgren Prop
11:32 – Anthony Edwards Prop
13:47 – Onyeka Okongwu Prop
15:42 – Trae Young Prop
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