Can someone with more experience/understanding then me explain to me how we are so unlikely to win tomorrow after we handed their asses back to them, twice?
I'm not trying to say we are going to win, not even likely to win, but this? Like, really? 26%?
That should be 45% easly!

35 comments

  1. The game is in Oklahoma and as good as Oklahoma is you would figure they should win the game on their home court. If the Spurs beat them tomorrow then Oklahoma is probably got to really look at some stuff.

  2. Home court for OKC and I think they’ll ref it like a playoff game. So they can probably kill Luke Kornet at center court and the refs will swallow their whistle.

  3. Keep in mind we had a 10% chance to win on a neutral floor in the cup. Now we are at a 25% in enemy territory. I’d say that’s somewhat fair. Factor in that we already won 2 and it’s hard to beat any team 3 in a row.

  4. If I had to guess;

    1. Skepticism that OKC will lose 3 straight to SA
    2. Home game for OKC (more whistles, bench should play better)
    3. OKC will have had a full days rest (yesterday they were on the second of a B2B)

    All that said, I really don’t mind being the underdog, would make a win even sweeter.

  5. It’s at okc… who haven’t lost there this season. It’s fair. A 25% chance to win means it’s actually possible which is a good thing

  7. It’s based on ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index), which is a conservative backwards-looking model that isn’t moved a lot by individual games or recent streaks. BPI still thinks that the Rockets are the 2nd best team in the NBA based on history and point differential. It still thinks the Rockets are slightly more like than the Spurs to win the division. It still thinks the Thunder are far and away the best team in the NBA. Two games, one a nailbiter, doesn’t mean much in the dataset.

    This kind of model will take a lot of convincing that the Spurs are for real. To this point, it will have marked down the Spurs for a lot of close calls against weak teams. And while I think the Spurs are a lot better now than they were 15 games ago, the model will need to see a lot more blowouts to give the Spurs the respect I think they deserve.

  11. Thunder are 10 point favorites. They’re also the best team in the NBA and are playing at home.

    If I were a gambler and someone offered me even odds on this game I would take OKC hard and hope to lose the bet. 

  12. The thunder are really really good. Even with us beating them twice. I don’t think there are many people even in this sub. That would say the Spurs are a straight up better team than them.

    So off of that alone they should be favorites

    Then you factor in that they haven’t lost at home and are generally really good at home. And that makes them even more favorites

    Than you throw in the narrative, coming off two losses in a row to the Spurs and people expecting them to be motivated isn’t surprising

  14. This was made way before the 2 wins but even then OKC are the best team rn so regardless of being up 2-0. Spurs are still the underdog

  15. Wemby is going to drop 40 Pts, 14 Rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks with only 2 TO. We get a W. Come on Santa, I still believe in you

  16. There’s levels to this. We gotta take it step by step.
    1) They are defending champs.
    2) They have the reigning MVP.
    3) They are home. Their fans are gonna be amped.
    4) They lost to the Spurs, twice now. They’re gonna be fired up to play. It’ll mean more to them because their pride is on the line.

    I think there’s a significant (~30%) chance that we might get blown out. Think of it like this: the Spurs were hyped for the semifinal cup game against them. It’s basically the inverse now they’ve lost two. Even Vegas thinks so: bettering line is at -9.5 Thunder. BUT…if we win, we definitely start living in their heads.

  17. Yeah to assume we will beat the defending champs 3x in a row with less than 2 weeks time is pretty bold to believe. It’s just too bad we have a bold group.

  20. OKC is undefeated at home currently. We about to break their streak. Let’s put $10 on the spurs lol

  28. You just know every whistle will be in their favor it will be one of those games unfortunately

  35. Honestly, you don’t need to worry about those prediction posts. The Christmas Day games are one of the NBA’s biggest showcases of the year, and the league scheduling **Spurs vs. Thunder** already tells you they see these two teams as being on the same level.
    The league won’t mess around with ratings (or money).

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