The largest dropoff in total production between a player’s age 20-29 seasons and age 30-39 seasons
January 7, 2026
The largest dropoff in total production between a player’s age 20-29 seasons and age 30-39 seasons
27 comments
If I included active players in this table, Mike Trout (75.4 WAR in his 20s vs. 11.6 WAR in his 30s) would be the overall leader.
But he’s only 34. He has plenty of time to add to the latter total.
Very interesting. Would love to see the reverse.
I love this. I would love to see a graph of players biggest leaps from 20-29 and 30-39 too
Insane that there are players on here with 25+ WAR in their 30s
That mickey mantle guy was pretty good huh
Christy Matthewson had that whole mustard gas thing that derailed him. He doesnt get talked about near enough as one of the best of all time
Impressive. Let’s see Anthony Rendon’s drop off.
30-something Walter Johnson with a the 5th biggest “drop off” where his drop off is by itself a borderline HOF career is wiiiiiild. Big train, indeed.
Over 30 Ken Griffy Jr. was just sad to watch. After he had that long string of injuries he was just never the same. Micky Mantle was playing 2 legs without knees and could barely walk let alone play baseball. Puljos last few years were so bad it makes the numbers look worse than they are I think. Kershaw is the same, he was a 3WAR player on average in his 30’s he just had 3 low WAR seasons and had 7 seasons over 30.
One thing to note about this list is some of these guys played WELL into their 30’s and were still servicable.
I’m impressed by 30s Felix ending with exactly 0.0 WAR. He was The Replacement Level Pitcher.
Of course Addie Joss had a huge dropoff, he fucking died!
Listen motherfucker, I’ve had a lot of reminders already today that I’m fucking old, including noticing that my son is now taller than me (and I ain’t short), so you need to just fuck off with this shit.
Well, Pujols’ numbers aren’t exactly accurate, he was 20-29 for 20 years.
Did not expect to see a Nap Rucker reference this morning. Nap sustained some kind of injury when he was 29, managed to have one serviceable year when he was 30 by relying solely on this changeup/knuckleball that he developed when he was 28, but was out of the league by age 32. One of my favorite players, but played for some really bad Dodgers teams (and then threw a couple pitchers in the 1916 World Series)
Putting Addie Joss on here is pretty disingenuous…
Micky Mantle retired at 36 and was still posting 2-3 WAR seasons. A lot of this group retired before they turned 39 so we’re looking at a 10 year sample vs a 6 year sample and WAR being a volume stat, I feel like this isn’t really apples to apples.
Felix Hernandez was pretty much totally healthy for a decade and then fell off a cliff. I never watched much Seattle baseball nor followed his career all that closely, so what the heck happened with him?
I had no idea Jim Fregosi was this good in his 20s. Always thought about him as the manager of the Phillies way back when.
Wild Aaron Judge has accumulated 35.9 bWar since his age 30 season (4 seasons). Good for 58% of his career war.
Walter Johnson was bringing the ruckus.
Walter Johnson holy hell.
First ballot HOF to borderline HOF ages 30-39 is insane
Would be nice to see something like this but as a average WAR/year.
Seems like it this could be skewed heavily by players that retired early or battled injuries in their 30’s. On the flip side it could also be skewed by players that came into the league a little later.
Walter Johnson and Rogers Hornsby– kings of precipitous declines yet still being better than anyone else on the field
Man, I knew before looking I was going to see Griffey and Felix on there. I’m so grateful I got to watch them for their full primes.
Andruw Jones is the wildest to me still.
Like, guy was a MONSTER and then just fell off a cliff.
Felix Hernandez I kinda understand, as he had tons of injuries and threw himself into a decline.
Is this sort of analysis even statistically relevant? Jimmie Foxx only played in 3 full seasons and parts of 5 others in his 30s. So…of course his WAR totals fall off. He wasn’t on the field.
Kershaw is another. He only had two full seasons beyond age 27.
Mickey Mantle played in nearly 1550 games before age 30 and 850 after.
Interesting I suppose, but these data do not so much capture drop off or decline as much as they capture time playing.
Can you do the opposite? Biggest gain between 20-29 and 30-39? Interested to know if there might be any that have done so.
27 comments
If I included active players in this table, Mike Trout (75.4 WAR in his 20s vs. 11.6 WAR in his 30s) would be the overall leader.
But he’s only 34. He has plenty of time to add to the latter total.
Very interesting. Would love to see the reverse.
I love this. I would love to see a graph of players biggest leaps from 20-29 and 30-39 too
Insane that there are players on here with 25+ WAR in their 30s
That mickey mantle guy was pretty good huh
Christy Matthewson had that whole mustard gas thing that derailed him. He doesnt get talked about near enough as one of the best of all time
Impressive. Let’s see Anthony Rendon’s drop off.
30-something Walter Johnson with a the 5th biggest “drop off” where his drop off is by itself a borderline HOF career is wiiiiiild. Big train, indeed.
Over 30 Ken Griffy Jr. was just sad to watch. After he had that long string of injuries he was just never the same. Micky Mantle was playing 2 legs without knees and could barely walk let alone play baseball. Puljos last few years were so bad it makes the numbers look worse than they are I think. Kershaw is the same, he was a 3WAR player on average in his 30’s he just had 3 low WAR seasons and had 7 seasons over 30.
One thing to note about this list is some of these guys played WELL into their 30’s and were still servicable.
I’m impressed by 30s Felix ending with exactly 0.0 WAR. He was The Replacement Level Pitcher.
Of course Addie Joss had a huge dropoff, he fucking died!
Listen motherfucker, I’ve had a lot of reminders already today that I’m fucking old, including noticing that my son is now taller than me (and I ain’t short), so you need to just fuck off with this shit.
Well, Pujols’ numbers aren’t exactly accurate, he was 20-29 for 20 years.
Did not expect to see a Nap Rucker reference this morning. Nap sustained some kind of injury when he was 29, managed to have one serviceable year when he was 30 by relying solely on this changeup/knuckleball that he developed when he was 28, but was out of the league by age 32. One of my favorite players, but played for some really bad Dodgers teams (and then threw a couple pitchers in the 1916 World Series)
Putting Addie Joss on here is pretty disingenuous…
Micky Mantle retired at 36 and was still posting 2-3 WAR seasons. A lot of this group retired before they turned 39 so we’re looking at a 10 year sample vs a 6 year sample and WAR being a volume stat, I feel like this isn’t really apples to apples.
Felix Hernandez was pretty much totally healthy for a decade and then fell off a cliff. I never watched much Seattle baseball nor followed his career all that closely, so what the heck happened with him?
I had no idea Jim Fregosi was this good in his 20s. Always thought about him as the manager of the Phillies way back when.
Wild Aaron Judge has accumulated 35.9 bWar since his age 30 season (4 seasons). Good for 58% of his career war.
Walter Johnson was bringing the ruckus.
Walter Johnson holy hell.
First ballot HOF to borderline HOF ages 30-39 is insane
Would be nice to see something like this but as a average WAR/year.
Seems like it this could be skewed heavily by players that retired early or battled injuries in their 30’s. On the flip side it could also be skewed by players that came into the league a little later.
Walter Johnson and Rogers Hornsby– kings of precipitous declines yet still being better than anyone else on the field
Man, I knew before looking I was going to see Griffey and Felix on there. I’m so grateful I got to watch them for their full primes.
Andruw Jones is the wildest to me still.
Like, guy was a MONSTER and then just fell off a cliff.
Felix Hernandez I kinda understand, as he had tons of injuries and threw himself into a decline.
Is this sort of analysis even statistically relevant? Jimmie Foxx only played in 3 full seasons and parts of 5 others in his 30s. So…of course his WAR totals fall off. He wasn’t on the field.
Kershaw is another. He only had two full seasons beyond age 27.
Mickey Mantle played in nearly 1550 games before age 30 and 850 after.
Interesting I suppose, but these data do not so much capture drop off or decline as much as they capture time playing.
Can you do the opposite? Biggest gain between 20-29 and 30-39? Interested to know if there might be any that have done so.