REALITY: Cleveland Guardians SUCCESS Always Depended on Internal Development Despite Their Needs

16 comments

1. IMO, given the apparent reticence to make trades or dip into free agency, internal development and improvement has to be the driver whether we like it or not.

2. You explained how this team has and needs to operate to be successful, which they have been, and it flys over the head of most fans.

   I brought up the same point on Covering the Corner and the editor, commenters all pretty much went rubble rubble rubble Dolanz cheap

   They point at the run in ‘16 and ‘17 and how they brought in X players, but the horse before that cart was the core we developed first. I’m convinced the MO of this FO is to determine if we have a World Series caliber rotation first then they proceed accordingly. That rotation has been a work in progress since our last run. It looks close leading up to this season

3. The Guardians/Indians have been leading innovations in MLB for 25 years. Diamond Vision was revolutionary for its era. They have continued to use scouting, coaching to become bettter. You mentioned some of the key trades they made. They want win/win trades. Those trades facilitate trade value for their trade partners. They want coaches and executives to succeed elsewhere. The more they raise the level competetion the longer they can stay at the top of the heap. When other teams get better by following Cleveland's lead, they will always be a follower not an innovator.

   There are 3 ways to build a team. The Royals of 2014, 2015 put together 2 exciting teams. They have been bad ever since. They have not been able to repeat that success.

   The 2nd way to build an elite team is to buy the best talent in the free agent market. They are expensive. Very few teams can win a WS using that approach. They have to build from within and splurge when they are in the top 5. Most every team in MLB fits into this category. There are only 3 teams that have consistently won using this approach.

   The Guardians consider the 1st approach foolish. The 2nd approach a waste of time and money.

   They have built an organization that is elite in every aspect. They put financial pressure on that talented staff to get better. They give them the tools to get better. They are the best innovators in MLB. They are moving away from any free agents for any reason. They are driving down payroll to get better. They have learned they are better at winning than any team that uses the first two strategies. Other teams are decades behind them. They can't compete. There record speaks for itself. They are not victims. They are dominant.

4. Another good pod

5. And you know who is moving up (Billy Joel Style) in your rankings and you don't even know it yet? Riley Flippin Nelson.

6. Remember when they drafted Carson Tucker and he became a franchise cornerstone!

7. I've used the Trajekt Sports pitching machine once. It's absolutely bonkers. Such a cool tool

8. Mentioning that Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli played key roles is already proving that internal development isn't enough to put together a complete ballclub. Is development where we seek out our star power 99.9% of the time? Absolutely. But we need the KEY free agent acquisitions to SUPPLEMENT our development. The Dodgers supplement their free agency with internal development in the exact opposite manner. The problem is that the members we've tasked lately to be those KEY members have largely faltered since 2018. It seems that the extra $5-10M invested over a $5M bat really pays dividends for production and consistency and it seems like such a silly place to cut costs and not understand the importance of what those roster spots mean. As much as Lane Thomas was a "bust" he provided KEY moments that were literally necessary for our playoff run. Cesar Hernandez came in super clutch in 2020 and early 2021 when we needed to supplement our development because Yu Chang and Mike Freeman weren't going to get it done and Arias, Freeman, Miller and Rocchio hadn't yet graduated. Even when they did, they supplemented the middle infield with Amed Rosario even as they graduated those guys and Ernie Clement. Our bullpen depth is thinned out enough to understand that we cannot graduate a lot of our prospects yet, so they just SUPPLEMENTED the bullpen with all kinds of arms to compensate.

   It's certainly foolish to believe the Guardians will sign anyone north of $15M AAV more than once or twice a decade. That's fine. I'm just ready for one of those occurrences. We're never going to have another José. We have the most home-grown rostered players in all of baseball. Our strategy isn't a secret. But we're also not utilizing it to its full potential. We are too risk-averse, which is hilarious because internal development is already a huge gamble. How many star players actually graduate in a year across the league? 4? 5? Not many stay relevant three years after, either.

   That being said, give me Luis Arraez please for around $12M rather than any Refsnyder or Hays or whoever. I know his xWOBA is in crazy decline or something, that's fine. That just means we might get a discount on someone who is banking on a turnaround for a longer deal into his early 30s. He's still the best pure hitter on the market below $22M AAV. Keep Arraez around to SUPPLEMENT the offense and infield and stop playing guys like Angel Martinez and Gabriel Arias whose flaws are overexposed in daily roles. Rocchio is the shortstop until Genao can take it away, as much as people don't want to admit that Rocchio is a pretty good ballplayer because he doesn't have a visible outlier skill in one area or another. And if Arraez is a bust or if Bazzana/Brito/whoever forces their way into the infield, ship Arraez off for some prospects at the deadline! You have to make an initial investment to get a return…

9. Thanks Justin, how you gents come up with decent content considering the lack of news is impressive. Thanks again, very enjoyable 👍

10. I’m not sure why most fans simply don’t get it, but internal, organic growth is how this team MUST improve if they want to continuously contend. The good thing about that is that this FO has been one of the best in the business when it comes to acquiring talent and slowly building complete rosters with very few years suffering true rebuilds. The bad bits about needing to lean on organic growth are that 1) it’s a slow burn, and the team is good at contending for the division most years but it takes a long time to build a title contender (but they DO every decade or so), and 2) there will be FOMO. Fans will see other teams (albeit typically only 5-6) signing the available superstars while we sit back and wait for our stars to slowly become pro ball players.
    Some fans simply cannot get past that FOMO, but the truth is, when small market teams spend huge on superstars it very rarely works. In fact, it often sets a team back years- sometimes a decade. We don’t want that, but many fans think they do. So many people simply don’t understand the economics of baseball and the idea that there are multiple ways to successfully build long term contending rosters. Free agency is the most well-known because it impacts the biggest stars and it’s the easiest to understand. Fans don’t want to do the homework necessary to truly appreciate this owner, FO, culture, and ingenuity that we luckily see every year with our favorite team. There will come a day that Dolan no longer owns the team. 3-4 years from that day, fans will be pining for the good old days with the most under-appreciated owner in the sport.

11. While it would be really nice to improve our success in the LA market, you yourself have often pointed out that these acquisitions are so often just the luck of a bunch of 16-17 yr old lottery tickets. These kids aren’t even close to being finished physically developing. You think the Dodgers would’ve traded Yordan Alvarez for a box of rocks if he was the giant human back then that he is now? International position players just so rarely become what you hope because those guys are just too hard to predict. The best international strategy is the shotgun approach where you spray your money across a ton of prospects. Jose Ramirez, Juneiker Cecares, and even Angel Genao were all afterthoughts when it came to how the team spent its money. For every Jaison Dominguez who work out and become MLB caliber players, there are 3-4 Robert Pauson’s, who dominate the international signing headlines but never ever make the show.

12. I agree with you that regulating technology is a good thing for us. I have faith in our people and their ability to be innovative.

13. Quick Q- if Bichette has trouble getting a long term deal, would you be interested in handing him a 1yr, $22-24m deal? I think that’s an extremely interesting proposition. It would put all other signings in the trash bin, and likely would limit mid-season trade acquisitions to zero, but I love the thought of a J-Ram, Bichette, Bazzana, Manzardo/akayfus infield (Bo at 2B and Rocchio at SS until Bazz is ready is almost as intriguing).

14. Great stuff, LoG!

    With regard to the technology topic: I remember during the discussion of banning the defensive shifts, it was pointed out that such a ban would redound to the benefit of the big market teams, because equalizing ANY segment of the game outside of the salaries means the salaries are the only item the teams can compete on.

    Its key to note that the Guardians were at the forefront of the use of technology. That's why I'd worry about any "leveling" of the playing field there, when the elephant in the room that NEEDS to be leveled keeps getting ignored.

15. Thanks for the podcast. I hope you are wrong about Chourio. I am hoping that he is our future cf'er.

16. How soon we forget that Rajai lead the league in steals in 2016…..sad haha