In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
Exclusive Look At Nick’s Updated 2026 SP Rankings:
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Garrett Crochet (LHP)
2025 Stats: 205.1 IP | 2.59 ERA | 1.03 WHIP | 31.3 K% | 5.7 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
The discussion last off-season revolved around the shift to Boston and if Crochet was capable of volume worth the label of workhorse. 205.1 IP later and yeah, I think he’s capable. Among the three musketeers at the top of the SP ladder, you can place Crochet wherever you like, and given his combination of volume, strikeouts, and Win potential, I have Crochet as my #1 SP for 2026. Even without the elite extension of 2024 (that made me more concerned that I obviously should have in April last year!), Crochet’s skillset was pristine. Sinkers, cutters, and sweepers overwhelmed LHB, while the four-seamer/cutter combo earned a ton of strikes, whiffs, and…worse contact that you’d expect. There were times he wasn’t able to locate either effectively and despite the sweeper acting as a vicious two-strike offering, there were moments he needed an extra weapon earlier in counts.
That’s it. That’s the “flaw”. Expect an ERA well under 3.00, a WHIP around 1.00, a 30% strikeout rate, at least six frames per inning, and flirtation with the most Wins in the bigs. But there’s another flaw! FINE. Crochet pitched into the playoffs and was pushed more than ever in 2025, which could spell injury for the year ahead. I’ve heard this argument plenty over the years and generally, pitching over 200 IP in a season means the pitcher is capable of surviving a season, just like he did across 2024. I’m not concerned more than any other SP.
If you’re aiming to draft an SP early (I personally go for hitters, but that’s me), I’d take the third of Crochet/Skenes/Skubal. If you have to choose one first, chase the pitcher with the highest chance of Wins – Crochet.
Quick Take: He’s a stud. He’s been built up to withstand a 200+ inning workload while providing elite ratios, strikeouts, and Win totals. He’s it.
Sonny Gray (RHP)
2025 Stats: 180.2 IP | 4.28 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 26.7 K% | 5.0 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
See! I KNEW he wasn’t going to keep up the 30% strikeout rate! Sure, his sinker’s 40% putaway rate to RHB was destined to regress, but it fell to…31%. That’s 14 points higher than average. His sweeper’s ability to land down-and-glove side to both LHB and RHB stuck around, too, and Gray still had a 27% strikeout rate. That’s pretty dang cool.
You know what isn’t? A 40%+ ICR across all of his pitches to LHB and a 50%+ on both his four-seamer and curveball to RHB. Yikes. It’s alarming to see two straight seasons of a sub 70% LOB rate from Gray, paired with his elevated BABIP in St. Louis, and there has to be more at play here (struggles from the stretch? Defense letting him down? Stressful moments? Simply bad luck?) and I’m going to throw up my hands and play the odds that the BABIP and LOB extremes are going to positively regress in Boston.
Oh right. The whole moving to Boston thing. He’ll lose the benefit of a great home park + a strong team behind him (not to say it’s destined for the Red Sox to have a poor team backing him up), and he’ll gain a boon in Win chance (fourteen from last year can be repeated!), while the deep right field in Fenway will help him limit HRs. Most importantly, I believe the coaching staff will aid him more than in St. Louis, preventing seasons like 2025’s 9.2 hits-per-nine rooted in the aforementioned inflated ICR marks.
The best news? He still locates well and has generally the same velocity of old, with a wider array. I’d be shocked if he repeated the same poor ratios of 2025, and I’d love to draft him as my SP #5, starting him out of the gate with confidence. Maybe he’s my SP #4 as ADP settles in March, and that should be fine as well. It’s highly unlikely Sonny will be dropped from your teams this season.
Quick Take: Sonny had a few major blowups in 2025 that anchored his ratios as he attempted to sail the seas of excellence, though there was an underlying issue of hard contact to both LHB and RHB that needs to be addressed. I’m banking on the Red Sox to bring the necessary tweaks, while his ability to strike batters out and go deep into games remains. Sign me up.
Brayan Bello (RHP)
2025 Stats: 166.2 IP | 3.35 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 17.7 K% | 8.4 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Bello had a late start to the season, debuting on April 22nd due to shoulder soreness, and it didn’t take until the middle of May for him to get his footing after two significant changes. The sweeper? Nah, the slider and sweeper are the same pitch in my book, just a change in Savant designation. The actual changes: He attacked with his sinker far more than before, jumping from a sub 40% zone rate to 45-50% clip following his first four games, then adding a cutter 10-20% of the time to deal with LHB, which expanded to RHB as the season progressed, jumping toward a 25%+ overall usage.
He came into form with his new approach in the middle of June, sparking a fourteen-game run beginning June 15th through the end of August with a 2.42 ERA and 1.01 WHIP across 89.1 IP (averaging over six innings per game!) before he ran out of steam in September. But he had just a 20% strikeout rate during that time. Yeah, that’s the downside. Bello is a sinker/sweeper arm to RHB with all the grounders off the sinker, with a mixed bag of offerings between the sinker, cutter, four-seamer, and changeup to LHB. His four-seamer can be an effective surprise pitch upstairs, but fails to earn whiffs, and his changeup used to be the best part of his arsenal, but fell to an atrocious 51% strike rate to LHB last year. Ouch.
If Bello can continue to attack with sinkers and maintain his success against RHB, there’s hope he can get the feel back for his changeup to LHB and be good enough to be a decent ratio arm for a winning club. That means…He’s a Toby with a sliver of hope he can form into a Holly were he able to perfect the changeup and find more than 14% SwStr on his breaker to RHB. I’m okay drafting a Toby in drafts, but only those carry realistic potential along with their stable floor. Bello doesn’t look to be that guy for 12-teamers.
Quick Take: Bello’s shift toward cutters and attacking more in the zone with his sinker is a positive trend, but for him to be more than a 12-team Toby, he has to flex more whiffability with his changeup to LHB and breaking ball to RHB. I have my doubts he can do that, creating a player I’d consider adding off the wire, not snagging in my drafts.
On The Fringe
Johan Oviedo (RHP)
2025 Stats: 40.1 IP | 3.57 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 24.7 K% | 13.5 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
The Red Sox aggressively traded for Oviedo this off-season and despite the past results that so many Boston fans want to shout and ignore (“I DON’T CARE ABOUT ANALYTICS!1!!!”), Oviedo is as straightforward of a “one tweak and he’s awesome” pitcher. That tweak? Locating his four-seamer at the top of the zone for strikes. The pitch has all the qualities you want: 95/96 mph velocity, 99th percentile extension, 99th percentile HAVAA, and surprise above average iVB relative to his super flat arm angle. It truly can be one of the better four-seamers around if he’s able to boast a strike rate above 65% of the pitch. That doesn’t seem so hard, right? Well…Oh no. The pitch had a 1st percentile strike rate last season under 55%. Oh jeez. It’s a product of his cross-body mechanics, and he’s struggled with control throughout his entire career. This is a BIG if.
Oviedo has more than just the four-seamer, though. His slider and curve have been the backbone of his approach during his career, each acting as the reliable strike pitches he so desperately wants his four-seamer to be, and have returned solid whiff rates, if not elite at times. There’s a world he retains their feel and gains the four-seamer command, in which Oviedo will be the talk of Beantown. For now, it remains to be seen and I have my doubts it’ll happen overnight.
Quick Take: Oviedo is a dart throw in Boston, hoping he can harness his rebellious four-seamer to command it at the top of the zone reliably for strikes, instead of its horrific 53.7% strike rate of 2025. The pitch’s ceiling is absurd, though, and paired with his strong breakers, would propel Oviedo into Top 50 SP discussion were he to figure it out. It’s a major IF, sadly.
Patrick Sandoval (LHP)
2024 Stats: 79.2 IP | 5.08 ERA | 1.51 WHIP | 22.9 K% | 9.9 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
There’s a chance The Irish Panda is in the starting rotation for the Red Sox to begin the year, even though he won’t be their best option. Why? Well, it’s because the Red Sox signed him for a two-year, $18 Million dollar contract, including Sandoval’s 2025 season of TJS rehab. Oh no. Yeaaaah. Personally, I see it as sunk cost, but the Red Sox could easily view this as found money, where Sandoval gives them a few starts in April and if it’s simply not going well, they move on. They are committed at this point, so why not give it a shot, right?
The counterpoint is simple: Because he’s been terrible. Sandoval has been a SWATCH across his career, but without the necessary element of a good fastball he can rely upon for strikes. The slider has been a weapon in the past to LHB, but it fell off dramatically in 2023 and 2024 and I do not expect it to return instantly after returning from surgery.
Fenway’s offensive boost comes in the form of baserunners, with the Green Monster and their deep right field limiting the long ball in favor of far more doubles. In other words, Sandoval’s historically ghastly WHIP does not have fortune on its side to return the first sub 1.20 mark of his career. In fact, Sandoval has held a sub 1.34 WHIP just once in six seasons. Good ole high walk rate + elevated BABIP due to a hittable sinker.
It’s clear that I’m out on Sandoval, though I have an open mind. I’m ready to witness the new Irish Panda in the spring and across his first starts and I’ll report back if we should forget everything we know about mattresses Patrick. Maybe the Red Sox will push a cutter as they have with so many others and it’ll be everything Sandoval needed. I may even be convincing myself now that sinker/slider to LHB + cutter/change is all Sandoval needs to do – the sinker has done well to LHB in the past, even without the best command – but the question of control and command haunts.
Quick Take: With the Red Sox on the hook for $18 million, Sandoval will likely get an early chance to impress in the rotation. Opportunity is one of the most valuable assets of a fantasy starter and who knows, maybe the Irish Panda can seize the moment and show us two great secondaries with a serviceable fastball and new cutter for strikes.
Connelly Early (RHP)
2025 Stats: 19.1 IP | 2.33 ERA | 1.09 WHIP | 36.7 K% | 5.1 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
I really like Connelly and I’m doing everything I can not to make the obvious pun, but…I…can’t…hold–IT’S A YEAR TOO EARLY. I really wish it weren’t and for many teams, Early would be penciled into the rotation from the get-go. However, the Red Sox have Sandoval and Crawford as options for the #5, the former without options and the latter with more volume in the majors. Meanwhile, Early tossed roughly 120 IP last season and I can understand if Boston wants to limit him a little in April and save him for a call up. Sigh. This is why I’ve lowered Early massively since my October rankings and I’d raise him up near the Top 50 if he finds a way to avoid the minors.
Why am I excited? Because he’s a wide six pitch arsenal southpaw, features 94+ mph heaters with above-average extension and attack angle, held a 91st percentile PLV, throws strikes, and somehow has whiffability across everything. Not one of his six offerings featured a SwStr rate under 14% (!) and all but one returned at least a 60% strike rate (59% on the curveball he features either 0-0 for called strikes or a strikeout pitch. So close.). In other words, he gets strikes. He gets whiffs. He has the toolset to survive third-time through the lineup. He’s dope. Eventually.
There are still some areas of polish left to add, let alone the dangerous beast of temptation we call Small Sample Size. There’s a possibility for Early to be a SWATCH with far more, but said changeup was arguably his worst offering of the bunch as the slowball failed to land down-and-away as it should. We also didn’t see him toss more than five frames in any of the four games he pitched, nor did he face a slew of LHB. Yeah, but what happened when he did? He spotted sinkers inside and breakers away beautifully. YEAH HE DID.
I’m a huge believer in Early long term and I’d add him the moment he arrives in Beantown. He’ll likely fail to hit the absurd strikeout rate above 30% from last season, but he’s Max Fried in a younger body. Great fastball command on the inside edge to both LHB and RHB, whiffable secondaries, and enough velocity to take full advantage of his situation, even if he falls to 92/93 mph as we saw in his brief time in Triple-A last year, albeit mostly in August. This works. I’m so in when he gets a proper shot. Maybe not as a true SP #1, but as a Holly you won’t drop after picking him up.
Quick Take: I’m a huge fan of Connelly’s wide arsenal from the left side. I’m not a fan of the high likelihood he starts the season in the minors. When he does arrive, expect an arsenal that misses bats, throws strikes, and can live through the sixth frame once allowed to go 90 pitches. I just hate stashing players in my draft, making him a waiver wire pickup. Sigh.
Kutter Crawford (RHP)
2024 Stats: 183.2 IP | 4.36 ERA | 1.12 WHIP | 23.1 K% | 6.7 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Initially missing time at the start of the season due to a knee injury, Crawford later received wrist surgery in July, and now hopes to return straight to the majors as he competes for a rotation spot this spring. The last time we saw him, his four-seamer sat 92/93 mph and carried elite vert without the traditional steep attack angle, but it didn’t get the expected results: Batters on both sides of the plate held a near 50% ICR against the pitch, with a low 10% SwStr rate between them. His poor six feet of extension may be part of the problem, though he was destined from birth to find the right complement to the heater – a Kutter cutter. It was a stellar offering he could feature over the plate for strikes and whiffs while returning poor contact consistently, and there’s little reason to believe it won’t be just as effective in the year ahead.
The sweeper was fine and saved him in some moments, but it wasn’t as devastating as he needed it to be to prevent batters from hunting the four-seamer. The splitter and curve appear against LHB, too, though they are far from the main characters of his tale.
If Kutter is healthy and looking like his 2024 self, the Red Sox could give him another shot in the rotation. If he’s capable of pushing 93/94 mph and leans more in the eponymous cutter, I could be interested, though I see Crawford as susceptible to longballs via the fastball and infrequently finding the sixth. He’s not the SP #5 I’d circle for drafts.
Quick Take: Separate knee and wrist injuries removed Crawford from the 2025 season and I hope he’s not the same arm from 2024 when he arrives in camp. The fastball was too hittable despite its stellar vert and his kutter needs to do more to keep batters at bay. If he snags a rotation spot and showcases a new skill (velocity, improved breaker, etc.), there’s some interest, though he has massive HIPSTER risk. We don’t like those.
Payton Tolle (RHP)
2025 Stats: 16.1 IP | 6.06 ERA | 1.59 WHIP | 25.7 K% | 10.8 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
If you told me Tolle was locked into a rotation spot and worked with Garrett Crochet on his cutter, I’d be ecstatic and all in. His four-seamer from the left side is as legit as it gets, even without the greatest command inside the zone. Its 96/97 mph with a flat attack angle and 7.5 feet of extension, which is elite across the board (that LHB velocity is ridiculous!) and he’s already comfortable hurling it into the zone without fear, carrying a 91st percentile zone rate on the pitch near 60%. But there’s little else. The cutter is still a work in progress, even if it came with positive results last season, and not another pitch was thrown 10% of the time to either LHB or RHB. With many other players available for the rotation and multiple minor league options available with Tolle, consider him in the minors to begin the year with a slight chance at a reliever role out of camp. I’d hate the latter as it would prevent him from stretching out as a starter and working on a wider arsenal. I’m hoping for a spot in the minors where I’d be following closely via our PL Pro MiLB app to see if he’s getting a feel for secondaries. Tolle could be a fantastic snag off your wire when the time comes later this season.
Quick Take: With a low chance of a rotation spot + a shallow arsenal, Tolle’s time as a fantasy SP is on the horizon, not in our backyard.
Kyle Harrison (RHP)
2025 Stats: 35.2 IP | 4.04 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 24.4 K% | 9.0 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
The “prize” of the Devers trade, Harrison is fighting to make an impression in Boston and I’m hesitant to jump in, despite the addition of a 86/87 mph cutter (labeled as a slider often). The issues on the west coast stemmed from volatility inside the zone, while the curve and changeup were in-and-out on a given night. A cutter theoretically solves that issue, but in the three games we saw in September came with an unreliable cutter. The Triple-A data does look a bit better than the small sample under the stadium lights, though I’m skeptical he has found the stabilizer for a chaotic arm.
We also saw a dip in velocity to 93 mph (not 94/95 mph) and similar command volatility across his full pitch mix. And yet, I can still understand the hype. If Harrison can locate his heater upstairs, its 1.7 HAVAA will do the work for a high SwStr, and if he can confidently land changeups, curveballs, and hopefully a cutter in the zone at roughly 50% usage between them, well, there’s a pitcher that should work. But will it be at 94+? Will we ever be able to trust Harrison? It remains to be seen. I encourage caution with a HIPSTER label for now and hopefully proven wrong by May.
Quick Take: Harrison’s four-seamer has potential if he can wield it properly in the zone, while the new cutter remains to be seen as the final piece of the puzzle. It’s unclear when he’ll get a chance to regularly start for the Red Sox among their high volume of qualified arms, and when the time arrives, trust will be difficult to earn. Harrison comes with too much anxiety for me in most situations.
Names To Know
Tanner Houck (RHP)
Houck underwent TJS in August and there’s no expectation for him to return in 2026. But let’s say he happens to make the speediest of recoveries – he’d still need to be stretched out and there would have to be a ton of turmoil in the Boston rotation for Houck to be considered as an option. When he does return, it’s imperative he has feel for his splitter to LHB, while keeping the phenomenal slider/sweeper and precision on his sinker. Hopefully a cutter appears in time to help with LHB.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
David Sandlin (RHP, AAA, Age 24) – Watch Video
I’m a little annoyed the Red Sox converted Sandlin into a reliever when he arrived at Triple-A, possibly setting him back from a possible call-up early in the year and maybe setting him behind Bennett as a result. That isn’t to say Sandlin is a stud – his 94 mph four-seamer lacks vert, and while the wide array of sliders, cutters, curves, sinkers, and changeups can make up for it, I wouldn’t classify him as a strong arm to spec add the moment he arrives. There’s a chance his heater improves, or his secondaries are simply good enough to turn into a reliable six-inning arm with a fair number of punchouts, though it’s not a profile of an arm to demand attention right away.
Jake Bennett (LHP, AA, Age 25) – Watch Video
Bennett is one to pay attention to. He’s a slinging southpaw with a 94 mph heater and about seven feet of extension, who spots his fastball upstairs and carries a legit mid-80s changeup, turning him into a potential SWATCH in tandem with his low walk rates. As long as his slider is good enough to deal with LHB (with the sinker diving inside), he’s set up to be a steady innings eater for the Red Sox. There are a fair number of viable options for the Red Sox before Bennett, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he got a chance this season, as he’ll likely head to Triple-A shortly into the year, if not following spring camp.
Yordanny Monegro (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
He lacks a strong four-seamer, favoring 93/94 mph sinkers with a power changeup, and a mid-to-upper 80s slider/cutter that has become his go-to offering. There’s a great low-80s curveball as well that he can backdoor to LHB and get under their nitro zone, too (see video above), though I wonder if the fastballs are enough when traveling past Double-A. At the very least, Monegro’s control gives him a chance to churn outs with the sinker and putaway batters, evidenced by a 49-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 33.2 IP of Double-A last season. The bad news? He underwent TJS in July, so we’ll have to wait until 2027 at the very earliest. Bummer.
Kyson Witherspoon (RHP, ROK, Age 21) – Watch Video
Drafted in 2025, we haven’t seen Witherspoon pitch yet, and we should not expect to see him until 2027 at the very earliest. The scouting reports love him, touting a mid-to-upper 90s heater with a mid-80s slider and high-80s cutter (you know I dig that), while working on a curve and changeup. He could quickly rise up the system and have us excited for next season if he displays stellar control with his electric stuff.