2024 is the only season Jarren Duran played CF primarily. He put up 17 DRS in 810.1 innings in CF – 21 per 1,000 innings. That is an even better rate than Rafaela this past 2025 season (20 DRS in 1,167.1 innings – 17.1 per 1,000 innings). Duran was an elite CF defender this season, and his Savant page from 2024 backs this up as well.
I'm not saying he is a better defensive player than Rafaela. I know Duran's defense in LF was only OK last year (although I think it was a lot better than people give him credit for). But my point is just that – on most teams Jarren Duran would be an everyday CF, and he'd likely be one of the best CF in baseball. Even if his offense never returns to its 2024 form – he'd still be a 5+ WAR CF if he played everyday and replicated his 2025 offensive numbers (he had a .774 OPS last season). But he just so happens to play on the Boston Red Sox, who have one of the few players in baseball (Rafaela) who is an even better defensive center fielder than Duran. Rafaela is also a player who doesn't really provide much value when he isn't playing CF, whereas Duran can be a contributor from LF.
And this is how I think the Boston Red Sox FO views Jarren Duran – one of the best center fielders in all of baseball. His value is suppressed because he plays a lot in the smallest/easiest LF in the league. It's like having Alex Bregman and Matt Chapman on the same team and having one of them play 1B – whichever play 1B is going to have his value suppressed simply because he is playing a less valuable position. A lot of fans/media view Duran as just a solid left fielder, but the reality is any team looking to acquire him will almost certainly plug him in as their everyday center fielder and get more value out of him than the Red Sox do. The Red Sox know this, and they typically operate like a team that doesn't want to sell guys for pennies on the dollar. Maybe some team will pony up and give a huge return for Duran, and the Red Sox will bite. But I can't see them treating Duarn like a throw-in for a trade – I think Breslow will want a huge return for a guy like Duran, which makes it less likely he gets dealt at all.
Is this the best strategy for the Red Sox? I'm not sure, a lot of people hate how much redundancy this team has. But I do know this fanbase would be livid if they trade him for a modest return and he turns around to become one of the best CF in the league for another team. It's kind of a lose-lose scenario for the Red Sox FO unless they can find a trade partner that is willing to sell the farm for him.
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“he turns around to become one of the best CF in the league for another team”
Is he planning on developing some more tools to make up for when his legs go? The second he loses a step it’s got a disproportionate impact on his game. His routes in the outfield aren’t the greatest but he can somewhat mitigate that by covering ground with speed. He’s not a good enough hitter to make up for it in a corner position and he doesn’t hit for enough power to DH.
I agree he has more worth to another team in CF. I just don’t see his game ageing well, the Ellsbury similarities are very clear.
Half this sub thinks Duran can’t field despite being one of the fastest players in the league and having that dominant season. Specifically not being in CF limits how much value his defense can bring you, then throwing in that he was playing next to Cedanne who is arguably a better defender in CF is obviously going to tank Duran’s range and limit his defensive metrics. He was also in left, where we’ve put Manny and other guys that straight up can’t play the outfield because the wall limits how much you can do there anyways.
He’s an elite CFer as well, and I think that’s why Cedanne sees time in the infield this year and why the Sox have been so adamant about getting appropriate value for Duran, because he is a monster. Nobody hits triples like Duran and Fenway is built for that with the way the outfield wall is set up. Guy is a tone setter that gives 110% every-time he’s running
They’re hesitant to trade him because he’s very good
Honestly, their plan right now is likely CR at 2B w Duran in CF. I don’t hate it. I know losing Rafaela’s glove in center would hurt, but if he stabilizes 2B it could help this team dramatically.
1. Roman LF
2. Duran CF
3. Contreras 1B
4. Abreu RF
5. Story SS
6. Masa DH
7. Rafaela 2B
8. Meyer 3B
9. Narvaez C
Switch 7&9 if you want, but that could still be a good lineup. It would also give lineup opportunities against lefties to Romy and maybe Campbell if he makes the team as a 4th OF.
Duran is a good player. But this reminds me of when I wanted to trade my 1978 Nolan Ryan for a Johnny Bench rookie as a kid.
You and Breslow can think Duran is worth whatever you want, but if nobody agrees with you then congratulations on remaining in the Jarren Duran business.
The idea of trading Duran is ridiculous at this point IMO. We need run producers; that’s his best skill. Ideally they pick up a 2nd or 3rd baseman who can hit, but they really need to move Yoshida so the four outfielders can get regular at bats. The Yoshida thing is ridiculous at this point.
I’ll be sure to let John Henry know
Thank you maybe you have convinced those that want him traded. He is a cornerstone of this teams success . There is a reason he’s in trade conversation Everyone wants him!! Giving him and Early or Tolle for Marte is not a good deal for us to the point that I would take Hamilton at second( and I know how we all feel about that) before trading him. Get E Suarez who had 49 dingers last year put Mayer at second and with Contreras and Anthony it’s not the Killer lineup if we got Bichette but with the pitching we have it’s not so bad
No trading him. I love him and his level of play.
I think some people on this sub have confused “Duran is the most likely of our outfielders to get traded” with “Duran isn’t very good”.
Obviously it was always going to be tough to follow his 2024 season, but he is still a very good player that isn’t very expensive. Yet ironically among our surplus of outfielders he has the least control and is surrounded by two gold glovers at their respective positions, so it made sense going into the offseason that he was top of that list.
The good news is, with the additions of Suarez, Gray and Oviedo I expect our rotation is set and the odds of Duran getting traded are much smaller.
The bad news is we have to find at bats for our 4 outfielders and Yoshida is still on the roster blocking DH.
I don’t think they’re hesitant to trade him because he’s a CF. Centerfield is a better fit for his abilities because his primary tool as an outfielder is his speed, not his routes or ability to read the ball. Balls to left are more likely to be right at a player and or to have weird spin; almost all balls to center are to one side or another which allows him to engage his speed immediately, not panic about exactly where the ball was going. He would be a daily center fielder on basically any other team.
I think they’re hesitant to trade him because he had a seven war season, which according to their Excel sheet means he’s worth x amount. Using only my old-timer gut check test, he’s going to remain an impact player, but he’s really unlikely to put up seven war: he’s a really intense guy who strikes out a lot, can get in his head at times, and seems have some issues making adjustments, and the seven war season put a target on his back for pitchers who I think have him a little bit figured out.
Also, a lot of his war comes from stretching doubles into triples and singles into doubles, it’s incredible to watch. However, as soon as he loses a step, and he’s 29 years old, is under control till he’s 31, that four war is going to go to 2-1.5 war, and there’s a lot of outfielders out there. So no one will be trading with the idea that he’s going to put up four to seven war the whole time. Assuming 2025s offensive output is about the normal output we can expect from him, which is likely, he’s a nagging injury away from being a 1.5-2 war guy. The question is how long till he gets a nagging injury?
fWar 2023 – 2025
Tucker 13.6 (18th)
Duran 13.2 (21st)
War is a counting stat and Tucker missed time and his RC+ is higher than Duran’s but why is everyone so eager to trade Duran?
I feel like Abreu should have been the one they tried to move instead of Duran personally.
I’ll never understand how with parts of 5 seasons in the big leagues, people look at 3 bad defensive seasons, one slightly above average, and one really good crazy season where everything (except being a dumbass who can’t control his emotions) went right and say “well clearly he’s an elite defender.”
I really am not trying to be rude but who cares? We need another bat that will likely be a 3rd baseman. That fills the infield, meaning Rafaela plays center. Duran is barely a solid LF. You’re completely right about his value being diminished but it doesn’t change the reality that he needs to be traded.
Have you been watching baseball? People with their weird ass stats… Duran sucks out there in the “smallest easiest” LF!