The Los Angeles Rams are favored by 3.5 points at Chicago in the divisional round of the playoffs. That’s extraordinarily rare.
Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, there have been 224 divisional round games. Only twice has a road team been favored by more than the 3.5 points that the Rams are favored by.
The biggest road favorites in the divisional round were the 1979 Eagles, who were favored by 4.5 points at Tampa Bay. (The home Buccaneers pulled off the upset, 24-17). The second-biggest road favorites in the divisional round were the 1971 Baltimore Colts, who were favored by 4 points at Cleveland. (The Colts covered the spread, beating the Browns 20-3.)
And then there’s this year’s Rams, who are tied for the third-biggest spread for a road favorite with that 3.5-point line at Chicago on Sunday. A few other teams have been favored by exactly 3.5 points on the road in the divisional round, but only two have been favored by four or more.
Overall only 17 of 224 road teams have been favored in the divisional round. With the better teams getting home-field advantage, and often coming off a first-round playoff bye, a road favorite in the divisional round is a rarity in the NFL.
Bears coach Ben Johnson, who likes to fire up his team by talking about “noise” from their opponents, may use this information to give his players a “Nobody believes in us” speech, as his team is a rare home underdog.