Based on DraftTek's trade value chart. This chart is current through the divisional round results*
Background: What am I talking about? Back in the 1990's Jimmy Johnson and the Dallas cowboys developed a trade value chart that approximates value for draft picks independently from the players that are drafted. The number 1 overall pick being the best, has an assigned value of 3,000. The 2nd has a value of 2,600. And the values decrease from there till you get to a value of 1 and the picks become less important/valuable. You can use these values retroactively as well to determine if a player was taken above or below value.
Looking independently of the players themselves, we can use this chart to determine how Jimmy Stones did in his trade to move up to claim Travis Hunter from the Cleveland Browns.
In 2025:
Cleveland gave up the #2 (1st rd), #104 (4th rd), and #200 (6th rd) picks. These picks carry a value of 2697 points that went to the Jags
The Jags gave up the #5 (1st rd), #36 (2nd rd), and #126 (4th rd) picks. These picks carry a value of 2286 points that went to the browns.
But the real value from this trade came from the Jags 2026 1st rd pick that we gave up. At the time, the value of this pick was unknown. Based on the chart, we know this pick is worth anywhere from the 3000 if Jags finished worst in the league and 590 if the Jags won the superbowl. This means regardless of outcome, the Jags were always going to "lose" value in the trade. The question was how much?
As we now know, the Jags have finished with the 24th overall pick in the draft. The 24th pick is worth a value of 740 points. This brings the Brown's acquired value from 2286 all the way to 3026.
3026-2697 means the Jags trade deficit was 329 points. What this means is that to make the move we did, we gave up the draft equivalent of the 25th pick of the 2nd round.
The move certainly took some balls from GM James Gladstone as at best, had the Jags won the superbowl, we would have been in a deficit of 179 points, or about the equivalent of the 18th pick in the 3rd round. But if disaster had struck, and we had been the worst team in the league? The Browns acquisitions would have skyrocketed to 5286 points in value. The difference would have been 2589 points, the equivalent of pick #2 in the first round.
Curious what y'all's thoughts are on the move now seeing the overall value now complete. Obviously this is completely independent of the actual players taken at those positions and we wont know the full scope of that till this draft is complete and how those players have performed after a few years. Overall, this shows me a willingness to accept risk to go for big reward by the GM and a trust in the team to win now to minimize damage.
13 comments
Don’t care I’d rather have Travis Hunter
Travis Hunter playing two ways makes it hard to determine because he’s giving you a WR and a CB with a single selection
I think both teams won on the trade. We can dissect the value into points like this, but Cleveland “won” on player performance this year, but Hunter was injured for a significant portion of the season.
Although Hunter was injured, that injury paved the way for the Meyers trade which ironically makes our WR room insane next season.
The trade also renewed fans’ interest in the team, gave hype to the team nationally, and gave many confidence in the new GM.
I think after 2 years, the Browns lose the trade because it didn’t have nearly the positive effect on the team and fans. They’re also the Browns, so…
I think we paid a lot for Hunter, though he did have flashes of being special on both sides of the ball. Im looking forward to what year 2 will bring.
I thought we had more than 9 picks? I was wrong I guess
It was a huge gamble that this team was *very* talented, and that Trevor *is* the guy. However the team was disjointed, undisciplined, and the players didn’t trust A N Y T H I N G. Essentially just massively underperforming as a result.
I said before the season started that it felt like we could go 4-13 again or 13-4 and neither result would surprise me, well, here we are. I really think the Boselli-Gladstone-Coen combo is the difference.
Mason Graham and Quinshon Judkins both had great rookie years, Browns definitely won the trade but I’d do it again
Those charts really only work in the abstract. It’s the hypothetical value of a #2 overall pick. In reality, they traded for a specific player- Travis Hunter, not the #2 pick.
Almost a year after the trade I feel the same but I am at peace with it. The sting is much less due to it being a late 1st rounder instead of a top 5 for example.
I think it’s a fair trade for both sides. It gave the Jags a bolt of energy, we got some time in the media limelight. And you pretty much area always going to lose the value proposition when trading up for “your guy”, so most teams would weight that aspect heavier than just pure value.
Jakobi/Washington with 3rd down WR Hunter is a great group. Tim Patrick is a solid 4th. It’s possible BTJ gets traded.
The make up of talent in that draft made it a worthwhile risk. It wasn’t a draft filled with elite talent after a certain point and we managed to trade for an elite guy. Maybe we stay put and found the right combination of guys to make it worth it but it was a good risk given that it wasn’t perceived as a talent rich draft from top to bottom. That draft looked watery after halfway through the third round.
First day of the draft is going to be boring. Mendoza taken 1st and then who cares about the rest. Oh well.