I'm sure we've all noticed the uptick in the Blues' recent play (even if the wins aren't regularly coming), and I'm sure that some of you have noticed that it coincides with Thomas' placement on IR and wondered if the two were related. I did too, so I decided too look at three players we all expected more from this year (Schenn, Kyrou and Buch) and compared their numbers with Thomas being in (Y) or out of (N) the lineup.
The math is easy. I just took the stat, divided it by the number of games Thomas was in or out of the lineup (indicated in parenthesis) to get the per game average, then multiplied by 82 to project it over a full season. Clearly Schenn and Kyrou have drastically better numbers without Thomas, but somehow Palpatine returned Buch's numbers get even worse.
Now, a few disclaimers:
I am not a professional statistician. I am not a professional analyst. I do know that the game of hockey is much more nuanced than three surface level stats.
This is not an attempt to dunk on Robert Thomas or a call to have him moved/benched. This is not a statement that he makes this team less than the sum of its parts. I'm just a guy providing very basic data in regards to something I'm a lot of you have wondered here lately.
Anyways, argue amongst yourselves down below, and Let's Go Blues!
1 comment
Cool on you for this breakdown. I personally believe that this has quite a bit to do with Thomas’s lack of shooting. He’s an amazing playmaker yes. But everyone knows
that. Everyone knows tha he’s going to look to pass. Especially the other teams D. So when he’s carrying the puck, the other team never really treats him as a shot threat. And they make sure to cover the passing lanes. And then most everyone else on the team, including everyone you analyzed is also not a shot first player. But they have to be because Thomas kind of forces that role on to them. But the D was never worried about Thomas in the first place, so they’re right there to block the shot lane for the new puck handler.
In general/TLDR, our offense is almost too structured when he’s on the ice. It’s ultra predictable because we don’t have anyone willing to try and take the puck to the net or shoot before we get set up. We need to embrace the chaos a quick shot can create. Thomas is the qb and he’s always trying to make the pretty perfect passing play. Just my two cents