FanGraphs has released their playoff odds and posted an article on "Six Takeaways From Our Playoff Odds Release".
Here's the NL Central's relevant hopium OD:
It’ll be a two-team race unless the Pirates butt in, that is! Our model thinks Pittsburgh is nearly as good as Milwaukee this year, and while I’ve already explained why I think we’re too low on the Brewers, that doesn’t mean we’re too high on the Pirates. Sure, they lost 91 games last year, but a lineup overhaul has them looking like a meaningfully better team. Three new offensive starters should provide more spark. Paul Skenes and a solid pitching staff give those hitters a cushion; you don’t have to score as much to win when the best pitcher in baseball is on the mound. This is the most wins we’ve projected the Pirates for since 2016, though fair warning: They missed the playoffs that year too.
The prediction for the Pirates (and everyone else), using their models….82.
2 comments
I wouldn’t call this hopium, this is actually a legit org making a legit projection that says we might have a chance. You could actually use this to justify excitement and not sound like you’re reaching for something to stick.
82 wins feels about right. This isn’t a World Series team, but too many projections I’ve seen show this offseason as not having moved the needle, and I don’t think that’s accurate. We have this season to make us look legit, maybe squeeze into a Wild Card, and then next offseason we might even be taken seriously by free agents. A man can dream.