Skubal will make $32M in ’26 after arbitration hearing goes his way (source)
February 5, 2026
Paul Skenes might have his last year in Pittsburgh this season. Enjoy it.
14 comments
This is now most likely the last year of Skenes as a Pirate and they are going to max out at .500 because they didn’t feel like legitimately trying to build towards anything the last 2-3 years until last month. Absolutely despicable stuff.
Lmao just 28 days ago I argued with multiple pirates fans who used TIM LINCECUM as an arb comparative to Paul Skenes that Skenes would only be getting something around $13 mil during his arbitration hearing. There is literally no finite dollar amount set for Skenes. He may reset the first arb market.
Skubal absolutely deserves this. Skenes will deserve this when his time comes. This is just a kick in the nuts for this fanbase though because we just know they will not pay him what he deserves and keep him here long-term.
[deleted]
That was in Skubal’s arb-3 year, Skenes won’t be getting that yet. My guess is that he’ll come in at about $15 million in his arb-1, $25 million in his arb-2 and $35 million in his arb-3 seasons. That would still be a record for Skenes though, the current record for arb-1 salary is $11.5 million from Bellinger in 2020.
Assuming the economics of baseball aren’t reset in the lockout, I’m expecting that the Pirates will have Skenes for 2 more years and will trade him before his arb-2 season.
Welp, thats bad for us (Skenes). Unless the 2027 labor agreement changes things up a bit. I guess we’ll see.
What the average Yinzer bucco fan doesn’t understand is that the Pirates are known to not want to pay their players. Players don’t want to have to deal with Fin arbitration. Coupled with the fact that we never win, why would any decent FA want to come here?
Skenes will be gone soon and the mental acrobats displayed here will be worth the read. Complete insanity.
The record amount for a ARB-1 pitcher is Dallas Kuchel who got $7.25-million who got that directly after a Cy Young year. The highest ever for an Arb-1 player is Bellinger who got $11 million.
I’d expect Skenes to be in the $12-14 million range, with the Pirates and him avoiding arbitration all together for PR purposes.
All this tells me is the lockout is happening after this season. You, me, Skenes, and everybody else can’t predict how things will shake out after that, but my best guess is Skenes will still remain a Pirate until his final year of arbitration.
Relax a tiny bit. Skubal won in large part due to the rule that a player with 5+ years service should be valued against the *entire market*, and not just other arbitration cases. This does not apply to first-time arb cases.
We could probably get a 3rd basemen for Skenes today
I think much of the analysis of this is underrating the importance of how pants-shittingly stupid it was for the Tigers to file at $19M. It’s a big deal and will impact future arb awards for sure, but it’s also not a 1:1 unless the Pirates are also that stupid. (Hmm.)
This probably wont have any impact on Skenes. The entire arbitration process will likely be overhauled in the next CBA.
14 comments
This is now most likely the last year of Skenes as a Pirate and they are going to max out at .500 because they didn’t feel like legitimately trying to build towards anything the last 2-3 years until last month. Absolutely despicable stuff.
Lmao just 28 days ago I argued with multiple pirates fans who used TIM LINCECUM as an arb comparative to Paul Skenes that Skenes would only be getting something around $13 mil during his arbitration hearing. There is literally no finite dollar amount set for Skenes. He may reset the first arb market.
Skubal absolutely deserves this. Skenes will deserve this when his time comes. This is just a kick in the nuts for this fanbase though because we just know they will not pay him what he deserves and keep him here long-term.
[deleted]
That was in Skubal’s arb-3 year, Skenes won’t be getting that yet. My guess is that he’ll come in at about $15 million in his arb-1, $25 million in his arb-2 and $35 million in his arb-3 seasons. That would still be a record for Skenes though, the current record for arb-1 salary is $11.5 million from Bellinger in 2020.
Assuming the economics of baseball aren’t reset in the lockout, I’m expecting that the Pirates will have Skenes for 2 more years and will trade him before his arb-2 season.
Welp, thats bad for us (Skenes). Unless the 2027 labor agreement changes things up a bit. I guess we’ll see.
What the average Yinzer bucco fan doesn’t understand is that the Pirates are known to not want to pay their players. Players don’t want to have to deal with Fin arbitration. Coupled with the fact that we never win, why would any decent FA want to come here?
Skenes will be gone soon and the mental acrobats displayed here will be worth the read. Complete insanity.
The record amount for a ARB-1 pitcher is Dallas Kuchel who got $7.25-million who got that directly after a Cy Young year. The highest ever for an Arb-1 player is Bellinger who got $11 million.
I’d expect Skenes to be in the $12-14 million range, with the Pirates and him avoiding arbitration all together for PR purposes.
All this tells me is the lockout is happening after this season. You, me, Skenes, and everybody else can’t predict how things will shake out after that, but my best guess is Skenes will still remain a Pirate until his final year of arbitration.
Relax a tiny bit. Skubal won in large part due to the rule that a player with 5+ years service should be valued against the *entire market*, and not just other arbitration cases. This does not apply to first-time arb cases.
We could probably get a 3rd basemen for Skenes today
I think much of the analysis of this is underrating the importance of how pants-shittingly stupid it was for the Tigers to file at $19M. It’s a big deal and will impact future arb awards for sure, but it’s also not a 1:1 unless the Pirates are also that stupid. (Hmm.)
This probably wont have any impact on Skenes. The entire arbitration process will likely be overhauled in the next CBA.
Not relevant to the pirates