Even though starting pitching is one of our few strengths, FanGraphs isn’t very high on our rotation. I’m confident their projections are way off. If we’re going to contend for the AL Central this year, it’s fair to expect a Top 10 rotation—with a realistic ceiling of Top 5. Gavin with CY Young votes.
17 comments
I dont get the Red Sox or Detroit at all. 3-5 pitchers are blah on each.
fangraphs predictions are always off
fangraphs pitching model is heavily based on FIP and xFIP and most of our pitchers outperform theirs every year.
Not sure I can trust anything from the site that had the Twins at 20% to win the division and the Guardians at 7%
Gavin and Bibee had FIPs above 4 last year, their stocks are both kinda low and projection systems should reflect that. Our defense is probably not going to be as good as it has been either. Health is also a big risk. I would he happy if they could sign a proven vet to eat innings reasonably like a Zack Littell or Chris Bassitt.
They are never high on anything to do with our team. They are starting to feel like the PFF of baseball. Metrics that overly rely on their formulas and system and can’t adjust to anything but the model they have in place. I am getting older and see why generations before analytics don’t care to over analyze stuff created by people that’s never played the sport.
Doesn’t matter. We will win the division
Sounds about right to me.
It’s kinda hard to argue with the projection. They rarely let their starters go deep. Particularly early in the season. They have a solid first three in Williams, Bibee, and Cecconi, but after that, if you’re saying “Yeah, but Messick and Cantillo were good in September!” Sure. It’s a one-month sample. Cantillo has had a lot of ups and downs. Messick has a small sample. There’s depth with Allen and Nikhazy, but it’s hard to be infinitely confident in this group.
I can’t wait to see them play the games.
Thats just a clown analysis. We are top 10 easily.
such strong opinions, i haven’t even seen who is in our rotation this year yet, lol.
I think they gave us winning 74 games as well coming of a division win. I don’t know why people give these jokers traffic on their site. They get it wrong consistently every year.
ahhh let ’em underestimate us
Wont be a problem with our run production
No way!!
We are young, talented and deep. Big dudes. Nikhazy and Stephen would make most opening day rosters but will be starting in Cbus. We are eight deep.
The 75 top pitchers in the league (including relievers) were the only ones with a 2025 fangraphs war over 2. So it’s not surprising. Cade smith was out only pitcher with a fangraph war >2 in 2025.
I agree w the defensive commentary made in this thread as well. If rocchio is SS that’s a downgrade from arias. Jose Bo and Kwan are our only above average defenders if the move Arias into the utility ether. (That doesn’t make sense to me, but that’s what Vogt and the FO have hinted at). Britto and Bazanna aren’t even 50v defenders at 2b. CDL isn’t a true CF. And the revolving door in right has noonewith above a 50v defense in Jones/kyfus/valera/jrod/schnee/amart/watson. Manzo was one of the worst defenders in theMLb at 1b last year. Could be a rough year on the pitching staff just bc of the defensive alignment behind them. We will see.