
When the Ozuna signing was announced, I was a bit confused at the fit. I figured we had several guys on the roster who could use some time at DH, which likely will not be happening now with Ozuna presumable being the everyday DH. So I spent some time today breaking down our starting offense and how I envision starts will be allotted. Last season we faced 126 RHP and 36 LHP, so I assumed the same ratio in 2026.
O'Hearn: Impacted the most by the Ozuna signing. Roughly should receive the same amount of starts as he did last year with BAL/SD, but his position breakdown will look a lot different. Against RHP, I see him getting 30-40 starts in each of the corner OF spots, and picking up ~20 DH starts on Ozuna rest days. This is going to be a big change for him, as last year he only got ~20 starts in the OF. Against LHP, he will be Horwitz's platoon partner, as although he is also a lefty bat, he handles LHP much better than Horwitz.
Horwitz: Should receive around ~20 more starts than he did last year, which he likely would have gotten anyway if not for his wrist injury to start the 2025 season. He only started 2 games against LHP last year, and I see that being the same in 2026. If a RHP is on the mound, Horwitz is set and forget at 1B. If a LHP is on the mound, he is on the bench.
Lowe: Originally a guy who you would have loved to give 20 DH starts to keep him fresh. With Ozuna, that's now much less of an option. He's a guy who has dealt with injury history in the past, so I don't see him starting 130+ games in the field this year. In terms of splits, the Rays started him quite often against LHP last year, where he struggled. I have him as a pure platoon with Gonzales at 2B, but unlike Horwitz/Cruz he is capable of starting against a lefty now and then if that's how it works out.
Gonzales: As it stands, Triolo is the only player on the roster capable of playing 3B, and you aren't going to give him 162 starts. If our roster is set, Nick is going to have to learn how to play a passable 3B. I see him getting all the Lowe day off starts at 2B, all the Triolo day off starts at 3B, and all the starts at SS that Griffin does not get.
Triolo: As mentioned, Triolo is the only MLB 3B on the roster. His role is going to look a lot like it did last year post Hayes trade. If we were to acquire a more permanent 3B, I see him shifting more into the above Gonzales role, not really having a defined position but still getting 100+ starts. Triolo also had very stark splits last year, where he was great against lefties but horrible against righties. To get the most out of him, he should be in the lineup every game we face a left handed starter, even if we get an upgrade at 3B.
Cruz: Despite the down year, he will be the everyday CF against RHP. Continues to really struggle with LHP. Mangum will make for a better platoon partner than what we had last year. With O'Hearn and Reynolds being forced into more corner OF time, it's going to be even more imperative that Cruz learns how to play a strong CF.
Reynolds: Last year, Reynolds played 117 games in RF and 35 at DH. This year, I see his time in RF staying about the same while cutting his DH time in half. We still want to keep him fresh for the end of the year, so I don't think giving him 140 starts instead of his usual 150+ will necessarily be a bad thing.
Mangum: His versatility and solid glove here is going to be very valuable in an OF with everyone else being a negative defensively. I see his playing time being nearly identical to his 2025 season with the Rays: About 60 starts in LF, 40 in CF, and a handful of spot starts in RF.
Ozuna: Very easy to project, as he can only play DH. Last season with the Braves he started every game he could against LHP, and he should do the same here. I'd give him another ~80 starts against RHP for a total of around 120 on the year, which would be a drop off of around 15 games compared to 2025, which is a fair projection for a 35 year old coming off a hip injury.
Bart/Davis: They were pretty much 50/50 last season, and I'd imagine that will look similar in 2026. There have been rumors about moving on from Bart, and in that case I see Flores/Endy getting the opportunity to be the 1B to Henry's 1A.
Griffin: The wildcard of our season. Obviously he has no MLB experience, so I used rookie Bobbie Witt Jr. as a stand in. As a 21 year old, Bobby came in and essentially was the Royals everyday SS/3B. It sounds crazy to say, but I really think a 20 year old Griffin can give you 130 games of good SS play this year.
Garcia: I'm not sure if he will be on the opening day roster, but by the end of the season I do envision him as being the 5th most played OF. The OF is pretty left hand heavy, so having a righty power bat as an option is useful. He's a solid option to start when facing a LHP and wanting to give O'hearn rest.
3 comments
Regarding Griffin and the Bobby Witt Jr. comparison, BWJ wish he could have had this lineup protection in his rookie season. He’s going to have former All-Stars all around him to give him advice and help him out. The perfect situation for him.
This is excellent. Thank you for putting this all together.
When was the last time we had a lineup where the bench was so deep we were concerned about playing time? Probably ’92. Usually we’re just happy to have 9 competent guys out there.
Ronny Mauricio would be a very good complement to Triolo at 3B and maybe even start the season at SS. Maybe trade Yorke + a lottery pick to Mets to get him.