PECOTA Predicts Brewers to Finish Second in NL Central with 81-81 Record
February 10, 2026
Cubs are also projected to finish 91-71.
Feel like we've been down this road far too many times…
26 comments
It’s an every single year occurrence. And every year theyre shocked when we “exceed expectations”
I will say, though not unexpectedly, having only the Cubs be the only team above .500 for this season does feel a *tad* surprising, at least to me.
Pirates are still gonna be at the bottom, and the Cards are likely not gonna be much better, but the Reds, I think, have a solid shot of being above .500 at the end of the season.
And, of course, I expect the Brewers to be above .500, too.
Wouldn’t be surprised if we finished 2nd – that Bregman signing was big time for the cubs.
History tells us we will be better than 81 wins tho!
Some dude 95% of us have never even heard of will be a consistent key bat in our lineup that we got tor a Bo Jackson rookie card by game 60.
81 seems low but 85 is probably what I would guess. The brewers are relying a lot on unknown players right now. If guys like Harrison, Jett, and Sproat are all good they could be great. If guys regress then 81 is possible. Last year the brewers were worse than their record, they won over half of their games in a 2 month stretch
Can’t expect them to over achieve forever. But keeping expectations low makes for a fun experience beating the odds, and sets up post season awards!
81-81 feels like the “I don’t feel like doing any research into the Brewers, so how about 81 -81?”. But, I’m fine with low expectations.
Everyone should read the discussion on methods, they explained exactly why this is an issue using the Brewers specifically: they eschew veteran players and har a fungible roster, so they can mix and match quickly and at low cost, and on top of that Mke relies heavily on players with limited track record. When you add in the data limitations they have from A+ and AA ball, it makes a lot of sense there are projection issues.
Also, the Brewers did just trade away 8 WAR (Durbin and Peralta) for unproven prospects, so the club kind of proves the point.
When I see these I always wonder where the 16 losses are going to come from. A few from Freddy. A couple form Durbin. Was Taylor much more than replacement level?
100 win season incoming
How many times do I need to teach you this lesson old man?
Same ole nonesense for a new year
We shock them every year they just said fuck it. .500
If the Cubs don’t win the division this year Counsells head is going to roll
Neat. The power of friendship compels you.
Bet the over babyyy
Aight bet.
I’ll take the over.
What a relief! I was worried the experts were going to finally stop overlooking us.
Bet.
Good for fuckin them
I’ve been predicting 89 wins annually for several years.
81-81 feels like quite the stretch for second place in a division that had 3 playoff teams last year
What did kek quota predict their record to be last year?
26 comments
It’s an every single year occurrence. And every year theyre shocked when we “exceed expectations”
I will say, though not unexpectedly, having only the Cubs be the only team above .500 for this season does feel a *tad* surprising, at least to me.
Pirates are still gonna be at the bottom, and the Cards are likely not gonna be much better, but the Reds, I think, have a solid shot of being above .500 at the end of the season.
And, of course, I expect the Brewers to be above .500, too.
Wouldn’t be surprised if we finished 2nd – that Bregman signing was big time for the cubs.
History tells us we will be better than 81 wins tho!
Some dude 95% of us have never even heard of will be a consistent key bat in our lineup that we got tor a Bo Jackson rookie card by game 60.
81 seems low but 85 is probably what I would guess. The brewers are relying a lot on unknown players right now. If guys like Harrison, Jett, and Sproat are all good they could be great. If guys regress then 81 is possible. Last year the brewers were worse than their record, they won over half of their games in a 2 month stretch
Can’t expect them to over achieve forever. But keeping expectations low makes for a fun experience beating the odds, and sets up post season awards!
81-81 feels like the “I don’t feel like doing any research into the Brewers, so how about 81 -81?”. But, I’m fine with low expectations.
Everyone should read the discussion on methods, they explained exactly why this is an issue using the Brewers specifically: they eschew veteran players and har a fungible roster, so they can mix and match quickly and at low cost, and on top of that Mke relies heavily on players with limited track record. When you add in the data limitations they have from A+ and AA ball, it makes a lot of sense there are projection issues.
Also, the Brewers did just trade away 8 WAR (Durbin and Peralta) for unproven prospects, so the club kind of proves the point.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/104636/pecota-2026-updates-and-ongoing-challenges/
When I see these I always wonder where the 16 losses are going to come from. A few from Freddy. A couple form Durbin. Was Taylor much more than replacement level?
100 win season incoming
How many times do I need to teach you this lesson old man?
Same ole nonesense for a new year
We shock them every year they just said fuck it. .500
If the Cubs don’t win the division this year Counsells head is going to roll
Neat. The power of friendship compels you.
Bet the over babyyy
Aight bet.
I’ll take the over.
What a relief! I was worried the experts were going to finally stop overlooking us.
Bet.
Good for fuckin them
I’ve been predicting 89 wins annually for several years.
81-81 feels like quite the stretch for second place in a division that had 3 playoff teams last year
What did kek quota predict their record to be last year?
Sounds like 1st place to me