Last year, Justin Fields and Sam Darnold starred in this column. The former won two games across nine starts and was essentially benched for Tyrod Taylor. The latter won the Super Bowl. That’s about as boom-or-bust as you can get in this industry.
This year’s sole QB selection is Malik Willis, whose rookie contract is expiring. Unlike Darnold or Fields, Willis doesn’t have years of starting experience under his belt. He’s made just six starts across four seasons, going 3-3 while throwing for 202 or fewer passing yards in five of those six starts — but he also rushed for 40 or more yards in five of six. Among the 73 QBs with at least five starts since 2022, his 141 pass yards per game as a starter ranks dead last, but his 44.8 rush yards per game as a starter ranks as the fourth-most.
The concern, and the floor, is that Willis will be another Fields. Among the small handful of QBs who average 40-plus rush YPG, Willis’ passer rating (88.9) is much closer to Fields’ (87.7) than it is to Lamar Jackson’s (105.6) or even Jayden Daniels’ (96.7). The hope, and the ceiling, is that with a full shot as a starter, Willis could see a breakout that puts him in that Jackson/Daniels echelon. It will be up to QB-needy teams like the Dolphins, Jets, Cardinals, Vikings or possibly Steelers to determine how much risk to take on this March.