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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7069480/2026/03/02/nhl-best-worst-first-lines/

Goal differential in red on the chart.

"We’ll begin by identifying each team’s No. 1 center as a proxy for the first line, then examine the results when that player is on the ice. There will be exceptions for teams whose top center has moved up and down the lineup rather than staying fixed on the first line, or has missed significant time due to injury. In those cases, we chose a winger to represent his team’s top-line minutes (eg: Clayton Keller, David Pastrnak, Nikita Kucherov, Travis Konecny, etc)."

Jesper Bratt was chosen as the proxy for Jersey.

"To measure performance, we’ll look at the goals for and against differential when that first line is deployed at five-on-five. As an example, it means we’re looking at how many goals Edmonton scores and how many it allows with Connor McDavid on the ice at even strength. We’re using that as our measure instead of points because points can’t account for defense."

"New Jersey Devils

With the elite forward talent they boast, I don’t think anybody would have guessed that the Devils’ first line would be struggling this mightily.

Jack Hughes’ injury had a devastating impact as he was out of commission for 21 games. Nico Hischier had to fill in as the 1C at times and has had a down year. He also hasn’t been fully healthy — he played through an illness that caused him to lose 10 pounds — which is a contributing factor. Jesper Bratt, who was coming off an 88-point campaign, has had a disappointing year and hasn’t been able to step up, either.

There’s also an element of brutal finishing luck involved: New Jersey’s top line has the third-best expected goal differential among all first lines, but they’ve scored on just 5.8 percent of their shots and have a PDO of just 93.5. So yes, the Devils’ top players unquestionably need to play better (and hopefully stay healthier), but they’re also the unluckiest top line in the league."

All data courtesy Natural Stat Trick

6 comments

  2. Very confusing choice on Bratt here. He’s not a center and certainly not our 1c. Should be Nico.

    If I were to guess off the info they did state, they wanted to use Jack as our 1c (and by extension his line) but couldn’t because he didn’t play enough games. So instead of using our 1c while Jack was out (and arguably our 1c at all times), Nico, they just plugged in one of Jack’s wingers. I feel like it kinda makes the analysis lose some rigor, but it’s a league wide article so I don’t expect too much.

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