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Sleeper Picks

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Golfbet Roundtable: Best bets to make at THE PLAYERS

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Written by Rob Bolton

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Aaron Rai (+10000) … It feels like stealing when you can grab these odds for one of the world’s best ball-strikers on a test that rewards the skill set as strongly as the Pete Dye Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. The Englishman who just turned 31 also is a veteran here with a pair of top 20s contributing to a three-for-three slate. And he’s only four months removed from his most recent victory worldwide when he defeated Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship with Rory McIlroy and Nicolai Højgaard both one stroke back. Ergo, Rai can hang in the deep end. As far as his odds relative to this field, because of everything the course demands, THE PLAYERS Championship is at the top of the list among all PGA TOUR stops that encourage a reach. Also consider that J.J. Spaun was +11000 to prevail pre-tournament when he pushed McIlroy, the eventual champion, into a playoff here a year ago.

Brooks Koepka (+750) … Now that the rubber met the road at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches where he tied for ninth, it’s time to open the throttle. While there’s a proven narrative that TPC Sawgrass forces guys into defensive positions, the magic about the place is that it also properly rewards guys who are flushing it. Because that’s something that professional golfers do quite well and often, the variable between being in total control and constantly on one’s heels is between the ears. Well, the five-time major champion doesn’t lack for self-confidence, and with his transition of returning to the PGA TOUR behind him, the focus is singular in his seventh appearance. He’s finished no better than T11 in 2018, but the surge of form at home in Palm Beach Gardens presents as a springboard as he strides into the kind of environment that brings out the best version of his competitive self.

*:not(style){overflow:hidden;position:absolute;top:0px;right:0px;bottom:0px;left:0px;display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-pack:center;-ms-flex-pack:center;-webkit-justify-content:center;justify-content:center;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;width:100%;height:100%;}.css-17ygvlf>img,.css-17ygvlf>video{object-fit:cover;}.css-17ygvlf::before{height:0px;content:””;display:block;padding-bottom:56.25%;}]]>Brooks Koepka holes out from bunker on No. 14 at Cognizant Classic

Brooks Koepka holes out from bunker on No. 14 at Cognizant Classic

Brian Harman (+1175) … This will be the little lefty’s last appearance as a 30-something. That fact will have golf fans who remember his PGA TOUR debut as a 17-year-old in 2004 wondering where the time went, but it also means that he’s loaded with the kind of wisdom that can pay back the most faithful who understand that TPC Sawgrass is an all-ages show. What’s more, he’s scattered four top 10s here since 2015, the most recent of which was a co-runner-up just two years ago. He totaled four top 10s on TOUR last year – two of which were in Signature Events and a T10 at The Open Championship – so the major champion still is the same fighter who knows how to handle himself in playing up to the competition.

Jordan Smith (+400) … If you’re going to go fishing in the bottom half of the board, you might as well angle for a guy for whom the tee-to-green game plays anywhere, even in the absence of experience. After flashing that weapon on his native DP World Tour for years, the 33-year-old debutant from England leads the PGA TOUR as a rookie in ball-striking (at fifth in total driving and sixth in greens in regulation). He’s cashed four times in five starts with a T16 at the WM Phoenix Open as the headliner. Notably, three entrants in this field recorded a top 20 in their first go at TPC Sawgrass last year when the field had 21 more golfers.

Jordan L Smith chips in from 38 feet for birdie on No. 7 at Cognizant Classic

Jordan L Smith chips in from 38 feet for birdie on No. 7 at Cognizant Classic

Matti Schmid (+350) … First of all, just as it always does for the three top-finish markets above, DraftKings has markets for THE PLAYERS for both top 30s and top 40s that include ties, so the odds for my Sleepers in both of these markets including ties are reflected here. (The same markets without ties are still available as usual.) Second of all, we’ve been over this with Schmid, who’s as good as it gets when he gets into a groove. After sitting No. 1 in my Power Rankings for the Puerto Rico Open, he delivered a T5 on the strength of exceptional ball-striking (second in the field). It piggybacked a T9 at the Cognizant Classic, where he was similarly taut. Debuted at TPC Sawgrass with a T26 in 2024, so this bet begs for a full unit.

Matti Schmid makes birdie on No. 11 at Puerto Rico

Matti Schmid makes birdie on No. 11 at Puerto Rico

Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+290) … In all six editions of THE PLAYERS since it returned to March in 2019, at least one PGA TOUR rookie recorded a top-40 finish in the tournament. Danny Walker turned the trick last year with a T6, the evidence of which is baked into the support for Jordan Smith above. Yellamaraju is one of seven rookies in this week’s field and half of his six starts this season have resulted in a top 40. Granted, the lefty hasn’t faced the kind of depth that he will in his debut at TPC Sawgrass, but he’s already shown a consistently strong balance throughout his bag that warrants the faith. Arrives ranked fourth in total driving, 14th in proximity to the hole and inside the top 50 on TOUR in numerous metrics across the board.

Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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