NFL teams always have a list of needs in mind when free agency opens. They might have a completely different outlook when the dust settles, at least on the first wave of big free-agent signings.
What impact will the chaotic first few days of the new NFL league year have on the 2026 NFL Draft? NFL senior writer Nick Baumgardner and college football writer Scott Dochterman take a closer look:
1. Kansas City (Kenneth Walker III) and New Orleans (Travis Etienne), two teams that looked like natural landing spots for Jeremiyah Love, both signed running backs. Where does Love fit in Round 1 now?
Nick Baumgardner: This is certainly a tough one, although there are a few realistic landing spots in the top 10. I’m not sure the Cardinals or Titans are in position to draft a running back in the top five, but I wouldn’t rule out either completely. Washington still could take a swing at No. 7.
Another question is whether Kansas City might want to get Love on a rookie deal in the same backfield as Walker (whose deal is only for three years). For me, Love is a better RB1 prospect than Ashton Jeanty was last season — I think Love is in the Jahmyr Gibbs/Bijan Robinson tier of young backs who can do basically anything an offense can think of. And Andy Reid can think of a lot.
Either way, I refuse to believe Love makes it beyond No. 15, even if someone has to trade up. Dallas might find him too hard to resist, while Miami could have a super-interesting backfield of Malik Willis, De’Von Achane and Love.
Scott Dochterman: Every year, teams tell us they draft the best player available and not for need. Well, Love is going to test that theory. Objectively, he’s a top-five player in this draft and as dynamic a running back as any recent first-rounder. A current NFL running backs coach told me at the combine that Love is by far the best player at his position this year and a real difference-maker. When I mentioned that a team in his division could draft Love, the assistant responded: “Don’t tell me that.”
I don’t think the Chiefs signing Walker precludes them from drafting Love. In fact, it would make their offense more formidable and take pressure off Patrick Mahomes when he’s healthy enough to return. That running back duo could be lethal late in the season.
But if the Chiefs opt for need rather than best player available, I think Minnesota should jump up to get Love. Whether the Vikings start Kyler Murray or J.J. McCarthy, their QB would benefit from a Day 1, Pro Bowl-caliber running back alongside Aaron Jones. Love would further help open passing lanes for Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.
2. Has the quarterback movement thus far provided any hints to how NFL teams view the 2026 QB draft class?
Baumgardner: The league’s quarterback cup hardly runneth over at the moment. Moreover, the number of teams in actual quarterback hell right now isn’t that big. A few teams are in limbo (Pittsburgh, possibly New Orleans), but between college football’s annual transfer circus and NIL money keeping talented underclassmen in school, those teams seem to be OK living in that space until the right thing comes along.
(The Jets are in QB hell … but they’re also in roster hell and aren’t really in a position to be desperate for a rookie starter.)
The other part here is that I think this quarterback class has gotten a bit of a bad rap from fans and the media. It’s not a great group, but it’s also not the worst we’ve ever seen. There are a number of intriguing QB2 possibilities, including LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, North Dakota State’s Cole Payton or even Arkansas QB/combine sensation Taylen Green.
Malik Willis will take over as QB1 in Miami. (Al Bello / Getty Images)
Dochterman: Nothing has surprised me thus far in free agency, other than Miami swallowing nearly $100 million to dump Tua Tagovailoa. Outside of Malik Willis (Dolphins) and perhaps Murray, none of the QBs who’ve moved so far expect to start this fall.
Teams that invested in journeyman backups this week aren’t going to ignore quarterback in the middle rounds, and neither will teams that need help at that position. I think it’ll be an advantageous situation for most rookie quarterbacks (outside of Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson), because they won’t be expected to start — but will be allowed to compete — right away.
This is the type of QB draft out of which a skilled evaluator coupled with a quarterback whisperer can build a starter on a developmental timetable. Nussmeier, Carson Beck, Drew Allar and Klubnik all were considered potential first-rounders last summer, so they have talent. Small-school candidates such as Payton, Joe Fagnano and Jack Strand have raw potential. Green, Mark Gronowski, Sawyer Robertson and Luke Altmyer have skill sets that could translate into something, with patience and good coaching.
At least one of the above quarterbacks will become an NFL starter in three to five years, and not just because he’s pressed into service. Who it is and how it happens will be based on the environment.
3. Aside from those skill-position developments, which moves could have the biggest impacts on the early rounds?
Baumgardner: The Rams trading two firsts for Trent McDuffie before signing Jaylen Watson says quite a bit. Los Angeles was in position at No. 13 to potentially land CB1 in this class. But as a team trying to win a Super Bowl, it clearly didn’t want to leave that spot to chance. The corners at the top of this class (Mansoor Delane, Avieon Terrell, Jermod McCoy, etc.) are solid, but apart from Delane, it’s hard to call many of them no-doubt first-year impact guys.
I also wonder about the edge group in the back half of Round 1, as we’ve already seen a number of substantial edge contracts, even outside of Jaelan Phillips and Trey Hendrickson (see Odafe Oweh, Kwity Paye, Bradley Chubb). This is a solid edge group, but it stops being elite after the top trio of David Bailey, Rueben Bain Jr. and Keldric Faulk.
Dochterman: To avoid redundancy (there’s no question corner and edge signings have dramatically altered team needs), the moves and countermoves at center will impact the draft.
Obviously, Tyler Linderbaum’s record deal with the Raiders stands out, but the retirement this offseason of Drew Dalman (Chicago) and last offseason of Frank Ragnow (Detroit) forced their respective teams to make moves — and the ripple effects have led to more movement at that position than we’ve seen recently. I wonder if the Bears (Garrett Bradbury), Lions (Cade Mays), Panthers (Luke Fortner) and Browns (Elgton Jenkins) feel set or if they consider those signings as placeholders.
I’m also intrigued at wide receiver, because among those changing teams, arguably only Romeo Doubs (New England) and maybe Jalen Nailor (Las Vegas) are ascending talents. The receiver depth in the first two rounds is solid, and no move in free agency should have shifted any team’s strategy at that position.
4. How much did the Maxx Crosby situation help the Ravens — and hurt the Raiders — in terms of draft options?
Baumgardner: This was a big deal for Baltimore, which is probably why some believe this was more about having cold feet than any medical reasons. Baltimore just lost Linderbaum, the heart of its offensive line — and Lamar Jackson’s best interior run blocker — to the Raiders. They obviously had a need at edge, but signing Hendrickson and keeping this year’s first allows Baltimore to potentially target Penn State guard Vega Ioane or another need, such as wide receiver.
This isn’t good for the Raiders. Crosby reaffirming his commitment to the franchise is fine (although, who knows if that’ll stick), but two first-round picks would’ve been so much better. Las Vegas still needs so much, and Crosby isn’t going to help make Mendoza’s rookie year any easier as he doesn’t play offense. Another first-rounder would’ve given the Raiders a chance to land a premium piece to grow alongside Mendoza.
Dochterman: This feels like a college football signing-day drama orchestrated by Lane Kiffin. Perhaps it was all above board, but for the Ravens to fail Crosby on his physical, then immediately sign the top free agent available at the same position and retain their previously traded No. 1 picks feels like market manipulation.
Of The Athletic’s top 150 available free agents, nine edge defenders agreed to contracts (and Rashan Gary was traded) within hours of Crosby’s trade. Who knows what would have happened had the Ravens not pulled off that initial move.
Perhaps this could work in the Raiders’ favor, though. The franchise tried to do right by its best player — it wasn’t Las Vegas that failed Crosby. The two sides seem to have reconciled without hard feelings, and the Raiders have fortified an average defense this week and appear to have a solid plan on offense. A new scheme with an incoming franchise quarterback, Pro Bowlers at center and tight end, an uber-talented running back — the Raiders could vault into the worst-to-playoff discussion with a good draft. If Crosby stays, it’s not that farfetched.
5. Has anything else stood out to you so far, as it pertains to the ’26 draft?
Baumgardner: We’ll see if this changes, but we have not seen any huge tackle deals yet. Only Alijah Vera-Tucker and Jermaine Eluemunor had signed three-year deals as of Thursday night, and both of them can play multiple spots up front.
This is a strong tackle class, so I think we’re going to see a run on the position early. It’s getting harder to see a world in which fewer than seven OTs go in Round 1.
Dochterman: I expect four Ohio State defenders to wind up in the first round, including linebacker/edge Arvell Reese in the top three and defensive tackle Kayden McDonald somewhere in the 20s.
But nothing that has happened in free agency gives me any indication about where either safety Caleb Downs or linebacker Sonny Styles will go. Both are among the top six or seven (juggling motion) prospects based on talent, but they play less-than-premium positions. Whichever teams draft them will be getting plug-and-play impact starters, but I could see them slipping out of the top 10.