I run an NHL prediction model and found that Florida is the second hardest to predict at 38.8%.

The model predicted Florida would win 56.5% of their games. Actual: 40.6%. On a two time defending Cup champion.

Models adjust for injuries individually. The problem is all three hit at once.

Barkov tore his ACL and MCL on the first day of training camp, September 25. Best player and Selke caliber center gone before a single game. Tkachuk had sports hernia surgery and missed the first 25 games. Lose your captain and best forward before the season starts and every line has to be rebuilt. Then Bobrovsky posted a .888 save percentage, career worst. The safety net that carried two Cup runs wasn't there.

The model knew each would hurt. What it missed is how much they compound. Florida's system is built around Barkov.

Without him anchoring lines and the PK, the team's identity changed completely. The model kept expecting them to play like the Panthers. They weren't the Panthers anymore.

Full breakdown with some visuals reddit wont let me upload if you're curious: PuckCast

3 comments

  1. Cool breakdown.

    Here is something shocking that came up on last night’s broadcast: in response that marchand is likely to go to ltir to end the season, Seth Jones, Matthew Tkachuk, and Brad Marchand wont play their first regular season game all together until opening night next season. That would be 15 months after the initial trade.

  2. Been dealing with injuries before the season even started.

    Seen people say that every team has dealt with injuries, how many of their top guys had injuries before the season even started?

  3. I mean also doesn’t help that their top 5 D played exactly TWO whole games together this year. I think a big explanation into Bob’s poor stats.

    Also, playing lineup roulette especially with the young guys both on offense and defense really affected their forecheck. I think you can see this directly correlates to their lower SOG totals.

    One thing that I don’t get is it seems like they miss sooooo many pucks on net. I looked up the stat earlier in the season and they were middle of the pack, but it just seems JARRING how many times Goldie says so and so “shoots wide.” I guess that metric gets hidden when you’re strong on pucks.

    Oh well.

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