Want to win a Stanley Cup? You need to control five-on-five play.
Over 80 percent of playoff hockey gets played with five skaters a side. Goal scoring follows suit: power plays generate more goals per minute, but the huge volume of even-strength minutes means roughly two out of every three playoff goals are scored at five-on-five.
Usually, goal differential is used as a temperature check of sorts for playoff teams. In the last 17 years, of the 25 teams that reached the postseason in the negatives, 20 were eliminated in Round 1.
So yes, power plays are important, and may even increase in frequency early in the postseason. Yes, it’s important to know how to find the line in terms of physicality — playoff hockey is intense — and to know how to avoid crossing it.
But Stanley Cup champions tend to be elite five-on-five teams. All but one Cup champion in the modern era, going back to 2007-08, won those minutes during the regular season before its championship. The only one to fall below break-even in shots and expected goals? The 2018 Washington Capitals — and they scored (and saved) enough to win those minutes all the same.
Does this mean that the 2026 Boston Bruins, Anaheim Ducks or Montreal Canadiens should be worried? Can a mediocre five-on-five team win the Stanley Cup — and if they can, what’s their best route?
Let’s dig into recent NHL history for clues.
Since 2008, 296 teams have qualified for the playoffs (including the 2020 play-in round). Of those 296 teams, 70 reached the playoffs after falling below the break-even mark in five-on-five expected goals according to Evolving-Hockey’s model. Only nine went on to do real playoff damage, with at least a conference final appearance: the 2018 championship Capitals, 2024 New York Rangers, 2022 Rangers, 2020 New York Islanders, 2017 Ottawa Senators, 2014 Canadiens, 2012 Arizona Coyotes, 2010 Canadiens and 2008 Philadelphia Flyers.
What happens across an 82-game regular season matters, but one collective number obviously can’t reflect the ebbs and flows that happen across a full year. It doesn’t always capture the context of a team’s situation, either — dramatic trends, trades or injuries can contribute to the final result. Sometimes, a team just coasts in the regular season and knows how to turn it up when it matters most.
So it’s also worth looking into which of those below-break-even teams upped their five-on-five game when the postseason started. Twenty-eight of the 70 teams with sub-50 percent xG rates in the regular season saw their numbers tick up in the playoffs. But even with about a third of those teams improving in the playoffs, 49 of 70 teams still stayed below that 50 percent mark. And most were subsequently eliminated early: three in the 2020 play-in, another 31 in Round 1, and eight in Round 2.
Only six teams made it to the Conference Final: the 2008 Flyers, 2010 Canadiens, 2012 Coyotes, 2014 Canadiens, 2017 Senators, and the Rangers in both 2022 and 2024. Those teams show it can be possible to go on a deep run, regardless of what happened in the regular season. What’s the key?
Each team and playoff path is different, so there is no perfect blueprint. Sometimes it depends on the luck of the draw and strength of opponent. Some years, though, teams like the 2017 Senators can find ways to carve their own path to the third round. Their run was fueled by Erik Karlsson’s excellence, supported by an underdog mentality, deep scoring approach and some surprise playoff heroes like Jean-Gabriel Pageau.
Goaltending can go a long way to make up for what a team lacks in front of the blue paint, too. Mike Smith’s 2012 heater helped push the Coyotes forward. Igor Shesterkin was elite for New York in both 2022 and 2024; he saved a combined 39 goals above expected in 36 playoff games. His stellar netminding, plus a high-end power play, helped elevate New York above expectations until their five-on-five shortcomings ultimately bit them against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers.
The 2020 Islanders, on the other hand, made a handful of improvements to go on a deep run. Semyon Varlamov and Thomas Greiss combined for a .920 team save percentage, but the key was stingier defense, at both five-on-five (which kicked up the team’s xG rate) and in short-handed situations. The Islanders, under Barry Trotz, were built for traditional playoff hockey.
Another Trotz-led team, the 2018 Capitals, were the other regular-season outlier to amp things up in the playoffs, with a 51.6 percent xG rate and an even more sparkling 58.8 percent goal rate. That year, Washington actually had a pretty quiet deadline, only adding defenseman Michal Kempny. Instead, the Caps’ success was thanks to across-the-board improvements made on the fly, as the team only got stronger as the postseason rolled on.
Aside from Washington, 16 of the last 17 champions all stayed about that 50 percent mark in expected goals in their respective regular seasons. Some teams like the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins, 2011 Bruins, and 2015 Chicago Blackhawks only hovered above that mark; others, including the 2008 Detroit Red Wings and 2025 Panthers, shined in the regular season. And 15 of the last 17 champs carried those five-on-five strengths into the playoffs on their way to the Stanley Cup.
Passing the regular-season vibe check doesn’t always amount to playoff success — the Carolina Hurricanes would probably have a few trophies by now if that were the case. And while Dawson Sprigings of the Avalanche has shown that expected goals are a better predictive measure of future scoring, taking a step back in xG doesn’t mean a team is destined to fail, either.
The 2017 Penguins and 2019 St. Louis Blues were the two champs to fall below 50 percent in the playoffs. In both cases, it was because neither team’s scoring chance generation was as strong below the surface. Still, these teams made the most of their chances and outscored expectations, and played a stingy enough defense to power forward.
Outside of the obvious contenders, which of this year’s playoff teams are controlling the flow of play in a way that traditionally leads to postseason success? And which are most likely to pull off an outliers’ run deep in the playoffs like the Penguins, Blues and others before them?
The Bruins may hold a coveted wild-card seed, but they have red flags — specifically, a 46 percent xG rate that ranks 29th in the league. Defense is the issue there, and it’s only gotten worse since the Olympic break. Could Boston be an outlier, despite their five-on-five woes? Maybe if Jeremy Swayman (who is putting up Vezina-caliber play), David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie have something to say about it. As outliers in seasons past have shown, that could be enough to shake up the playoff picture. But most teams in Boston’s position at five-on-five don’t make it past the first round.
It’s a different story for the Buffalo Sabres, who haven’t been perfect season-wide at five-on-five. But Buffalo has only added more substance since returning to play, and it’s a big reason why this team has held onto first place in the Atlantic. At this rate, the Sabres should be able to move past break-even by playoff time.
The Islanders, who currently sit on the outside looking in, have had some recent downticks at five-on-five. A leakier defense, especially in transition, has brought them down to a 47 percent xG rate through 72 games. Rookie phenom Matthew Schaefer’s star power and Ilya Sorokin’s brilliance in net could make this team an outlier, but there’s a lot of competition for a few playoff seeds.
The Canadiens are only around break-even in xG this season, but their scoring chance creation and goal scoring have helped make up for defensive lapses. Montreal’s power-play scoring since the break only adds to their offense, while the Red Wings have been pretty middle-of-the-road at five-on-five, without the goals to show for it. It’s going to be an uphill climb for Detroit at this point.
Whether teams like the Bruins, Red Wings and Islanders can take their five-on-five play up a notch, on both ends, could determine where they ultimately slot in a few weeks — especially with the Blue Jackets and Senators going on heaters recently.
Rick Bowness’ impact in Columbus could lead the Blue Jackets from second-last in the Eastern Conference all the way into the playoffs. Since Bowness was hired on Jan. 12, Columbus is tied with Buffalo and Anaheim for the most wins in the NHL, climbing all the way to second in the Metropolitan Division. The stunning turnaround in five-on-five play is at the heart of their turnaround: Bowness’ Blue Jackets are inside the top 10 in expected goals percentage and fourth in their shot share at five-on-five. It’s not by accident.
In his first meeting with his new team, Bowness shared his goals for the Blue Jackets’ five-on-five metrics, putting Columbus’ poor rush shot, slot shot and five-on-five statistics on the board. He told his team they couldn’t realistically make the playoffs without improving across the board — and now that they’ve bought in, committing to the hard parts of NHL defense, the Blue Jackets are more than a threat to make the playoffs. They’re a legitimate threat to win a round — or more — based almost entirely on real, demonstrated improvement to team defense.
But there’s another team in the East with a stunning improvement to its five-on-five game. Maybe we should be taking the Senators as a more serious threat?
Ottawa’s 59 percent of expected goals since the Olympic break is No. 1 in the NHL, and it’s coming from improvements at both ends of the rink.The Senators have generated the third-most expected goals and are the best five-on-five xG suppressors in the entire league since the break.
They’re simply not giving up shots. The Senators’ forecheck has been a force, with active sticks all the way up the ice, and the team’s third and fourth lines have contributed to team success even after trading David Perron. Maybe it’s no surprise that the Senators are finally getting saves: they’re protecting the guts of the ice more effectively than anyone else in the NHL.
Not only could that give Columbus and Ottawa the edge in the playoff race, that five-on-five foundation should help their chances of going on a real run.
Shifting west, Anaheim is a fascinating division leader. The Ducks’ 47.5 percent xG since the Olympics pairs with a substantially negative goal differential — minus-24 at five-on-five — to add some down-filled pillows to the Pacific Division fight. The Ducks could sneak through their own division, if the team’s up-tempo game and goaltending from Lukas Dostal can overpower some defensive concerns that hold back their five-on-five metrics. But if this team suffers an early exit, it would likely be because the Utah Mammoth’s numbers are better across the board, making them the favorites from the wild-card seed if the playoffs started today.
The race for the second wild-card spot has turned into something of a pillow fight, too, with the Nashville Predators three points ahead of a Los Angeles Kings team whose five-on-five metrics are better than the Predators, Kraken, Sharks or Jets. That’s not an insurmountable lead, but L.A.’s big bet on Artemi Panarin, its quality goaltender in Darcy Kuemper, and the easily bandwagonable story of Anze Kopitar are all at risk of missing the playoffs despite being the WC2 seed’s best chance of creating an upset.
Winnipeg’s five-on-five numbers have dropped from exemplary in its Presidents’ Trophy-winning season to below 50 percent this year. The Jets’ modest, late-season resurgence, which comes partly from better performances (and health) from key veterans and partly from young players like Elias Salomonsson, is not likely to be enough to earn a playoff spot. And even if this team did somehow make it, the odds are against it going the distance.
Seattle has a game in hand on the Jets and the same five-point spread between itself and Nashville in a wild-card spot, but the Kraken’s five-on-five numbers are even worse than Winnipeg’s. It’s hard to find a route for a team with 46.0 percent of expected goals against the league as a whole surviving the Avalanche, even with improved goaltending via Philipp Grubauer’s resurgence. There’s just no reason to believe Seattle could win the five-on-five battle against the West’s top teams, even their last playoff matchup in mind.
Could one of the most dominant two-way teenagers in NHL history accomplish what slower, veteran teams cannot? Almost every version of Macklin Celebrini’s lines has outscored its opposition this season, but the Sharks have some of the worst five-on-five numbers among playoff hopefuls. They’ve improved since the Olympics, but San Jose’s share of real goals hasn’t kept pace. They may have Celebrini, but the rest of the Sharks’ roster quality better resembles early Connor McDavid playoff teams than the ones that made it to back-to-back Cup finals.
Less dominant teams sneak into the postseason every year — and sometimes make surprising impacts. Maybe the Kraken’s deep approach can take over down the stretch, the Ducks’ young guns can make their mark in a weaker division, or Sorokin can steal a series for the Islanders. But the best bet to go on a deep run and end with a championship is to have a dominant team at five-on-five.