This is why you don't spend high picks on running backs. Even on the select few occasions the RB was so good as to be "worth it" it's fool's gold for teams that never win anything (or a preposterously wasted luxury pick if you're the Chiefs)
This is why you don't spend high picks on running backs. Even on the select few occasions the RB was so good as to be "worth it" it's fool's gold for teams that never win anything (or a preposterously wasted luxury pick if you're the Chiefs)
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Zeke, Saquan, Jacobs, and Bijan are/were all top tier workhorse guys.
Harris, Hall, and Fournette are/were serviceable RBs but not game changers.
Brooks and CEH are both meh to this point. CEH peaked as a rookie and Brooks has been hurt too much.
Jeanty is still a ? Mid first year behind a bad line that hasn’t made huge strides in getting any better isn’t a strong outlook.
Overall it’s a mixed bag, but the most elite RB in the draft usually has a decent career. Ironically the worst RB on the list has the most SB rings
It’s not really weather or not the player is going to be good or translate. Most RBs picked in the top 10 are top tier players, and l think Love deserves mention there. I just feel like the RB position in particular requires a good situation around them in order to truly live up to their potential. Or to really change the way defenses have to game plan differently for them. If the Titans choose to go offense in the first (which I think they should) I personally think they would be better suited to go WR. Not just saying that they should just pick a WR to pick on but I think Tate would give them a matchup and game planning advantage they don’t currently have.
I will say that I haven’t watched Love’s tape as a receiver so that could change my mind if he stands out in that area.
What’s also funny is if you look at the top 5 rushers this past season the rounds they went in are:
1. James Cook – Round 2
2. Derrick Henry – Round 2
3. Jonathan Taylor – Round 2
4. Bijan Robinson – Round 1
5. De’von Achane – Round 3
Noticing a pattern here? Day 2 RB seems to work just fine.
Gotta go back to 2014 to see Titans legend Bishop Sankey, the first RB taken that year.
2014 – Bishop Sankey
Top 10 RBs tend to work, late 1st rd RBs are a toss up.
This supports the idea that Love is a safe bet
I’m losing my enthusiasm for Love at #4. Wouldn’t be upset with it but I’m more of a Styles/Downs man now
I would take none of those players at 4
Now do edge rushers and get back to us with the super bowls.
### RB “Hit Rate” by Draft Round (2016–2024 Drafts)
*A “Hit” is a Top 10 finish in Rushing Yards. Excludes 2025 class.*
| Metric | 1st Round RBs | 2nd Round RBs | 3rd Round RBs |
|:–|:–|:–|:–|
| **Total Drafted** | **14** | **23** | **28** |
| **Hit Top 10 (Rush Yards)** | **11** | **10** | **6** |
| **Never Hit Top 10** | **3** | **13** | **22** |
| **Success Rate %** | **78.6%** | **43.5%** | **21.4%** |
### Pass Rusher “Hit Rate” by Draft Round (2016–2024 Drafts)
*A “Hit” is defined as finishing a season in the Top 10 for Sacks.*
| Metric | 1st Round EDGE/DE | 2nd Round EDGE/DE | 3rd Round EDGE/DE |
|:–|:–|:–|:–|
| **Total Drafted** | **48** | **37** | **42** |
| **Hit Top 10 (Sacks)** | **13** | **7** | **5** |
| **Never Hit Top 10** | **35** | **30** | **37** |
| **Success Rate %** | **27.1%** | **18.9%** | **11.9%** |
### WR “Hit Rate” by Draft Round (2016–2024 Drafts)
*A “Hit” is defined as a Top 10 finish in Receiving Yards. Excludes 2025 class.*
| Metric | 1st Round WRs | 2nd Round WRs | 3rd Round WRs |
|:–|:–|:–|:–|
| **Total Drafted** | **38** | **34** | **36** |
| **Hit Top 10 (Rec Yards)** | **15** | **11** | **6** |
| **Never Hit Top 10** | **23** | **23** | **30** |
| **Success Rate %** | **39.5%** | **32.4%** | **16.7%** |
1st Round RBs tend to be more of a “sure thing” than other positions
If borgonzi picks an RB at 4 then he deserves to be fired on the spot.
This guy’s point seems to be from his comments that drafting a running back with a high pick doesn’t often turn a team around.
He’s ignoring the fact that having a high draft pick in the first place means your team sucked and the turnaround rate year by year for shitty teams is quite low, and the ones that do turn it around almost always do it centered around a highly drafted QB.
Theres not much more evidence that drafting an edge rusher or linebacker with a high pick immediately makes us a playoff team.
Also the last running back drafted in the top 15 that was a bust was…Trent Richardson in 2012.
Love is the safest pick imo we need safe high celing studs i think love would elevate us by a few wins too plus with the new stadium he’ll put button in seats and be fun to watch
The issue with drafting a rb high is not that they don’t turn out great, they normally do. It’s that they are just so much more easily replaced than an elite edge or elite receiver or other high value position.
If we don’t draft Love at 4, we will easily be able to find a rb next year either through the draft or through FA and it won’t cost us much from a cap or trade standpoint.
Conversely, if we need to find an elite edge or wr next offseason, we will have to pay a lot in FA or give up a lot of capital in a trade.
This isn’t the NBA where a single player can flip a team’s fortunes overnight. It’s a chicken or the egg scenario where a good pass rush helps the cover corner and vice versa. That’s why quantifying player impact is so hard, and even former players turned commentators can miss the point because their views are based on anecdotal evidence.
I don’t expect our first rounder’s success to perfectly correlate to us winning a Super Bowl. It’s a game of 22 players on the field. I hope we get one who plays Titan football and forces us to buy their jersey.
I don’t really care who we pick SO LONG as the team truly, truly thinks they are the best player available at #4. As long as they pick BPA based on whatever data or tape or interviews or whatever they’re looking at, then I’m good with it. RB, Edge, WR – I don’t care. Just pick the best one. We need long term top tier talent, and we aren’t good enough yet to care about filling specific positional holes.
Love could be the best running back in the league each year of his rookie contract and would likely never pay back his draft position. People get hung up on the value of the contract, when in actuality it’s what paying a running back prevents you from doing. Tennessee for the next four years would be unable to go out and sign a 10+ sack edge or a #1 receiver. They would be unable to upgrade the tackle position. They would be unable to do all that because those are positions where drafting in the top 10 saves the team and allows them to build full and competitive rosters.
We saw Saquon be on of the best in the league and never have significant team success in New York. CMC in Carolina was the best in the league and had no significant team success. Bijan currently is one of the best in the league and has not had a winning season in Atlanta. People also love bringing up a Gibbs comparison but conveniently leave out that Detroit drafted a tackle, (premier position) edge, (premier position) and WR (premier position) all in the top 12 before finally addressing running back. The list goes on and on, and if you really zero in on everything after 2000, all the data shows that as good as those players are/were, the team’s that drafted them were never able to overcome the roster hole drafting a running back put them in.
Those players are exciting, made incredible highlight plays, and sold a lot of jerseys. All things which i think are very important to Amy and the front office. This team is selling a rebrand and a new stadium and having a home run hitter like Love, will definitely help with that.
The cost of that thinking is that we will likely be having similar conversations in four years about who the Titans will be taking in the top 5 again.
Love, Bailey, Tate, Styles, Bain in that order at 4
Interesting
People keep talking like taking an RB top 5 is unprecedented madness…
The only true bust on this list is Fournette. Brooks has been hurt too much to assess. Edwards-Helaire looked like he would be good before getting hurt and he’s barely played due to injuries.
There’s less uncertainty drafting a RB it seems and on a team where the greatest need is for offensive playmakers, there’s an argument that taking Love makes the most sense. There were no real game changing playmakers in FA and the playmakers on the offensive side in this draft are uncertain. There’s no Malik Nabers or Marvin Harrison or even an Odunze or a Pitts in this draft. If the Titans do take Love, I understand the reasoning.
On the other hand, if they’re thinking less in terms of helping Ward and more long term roster development, I can understand taking Styles, Bailey, Reese, or even Downs at this spot. I would prefer trading back but if we stay at 4, I can get behind any of these. To me the only bad pick is to reach for a WR out of need or to draft Bain who has the major red flag of arm length against him. Imo he should and probably will fall out of the top 10 and maybe as far as 20 to 25.
Had to look up who Jonathan brooks was
***This is why you dont draft a RB in the first round***
Proceeds to get owned with stats suggesting the complete opposite! Lol
If Jenty, Bijan and Saquon were all coming out of college this year, I’d still take them at 4