The Athletic has live coverage of the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery.

The 2026 NHL Draft class doesn’t feature a clear talent at its apex like Connor Bedard or Macklin Celebrini. However, what it lacks in a surefire No. 1 prospect, it makes up for with a remarkably strong top 10. Defensemen are the story here, with four ranked in my top six. There are also prolific wingers available in Penn State’s Gavin McKenna and Frolunda’s Ivar Stenberg, and while there is a lack of a truly elite center prospect, teams are very high on Caleb Malhotra and Tynan Lawrence.

For the five teams with the best lottery odds — the Vancouver Canucks, Chicago Blackhawks, New York Rangers, Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs — the stakes are high. Each enters with distinct needs, looking either to land a foundational piece or dictate the identity of their next core.

How the lottery works

The NHL Draft Lottery will determine the order of the first 16 picks at this year’s draft. Two lottery draws determine the first and second picks. Teams can move up a maximum of 10 spots, meaning only the bottom 11 teams are eligible to win the No. 1 pick. The Canucks, who finished 32nd in the NHL standings, have a 25.5 percent chance of landing the first selection.

The top prospectsChase Reid, RHD, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

Reid is a highly mobile, creative defenseman with the speed, hands and vision to be a leading NHL scorer from the blue line. He excels in transition and shows high-end improvisation skills. While not overly physical, he uses his reach and feet effectively to break up plays. He projects as a major-minutes defender who can confidently run a top power play.

Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (Big Ten)

McKenna possesses off-the-charts puck skills and offensive creativity. He’s a dynamic winger who generates chances with pace. A pass-first player with elite playmaking ability, he’s built to quarterback a top NHL power play. Though often pushed to the outside due to his lack of physical edge, his pure skill makes him a projected top-line winger.

Keaton Verhoeff, RHD, North Dakota (NCHC)

Verhoeff is a massive (6-foot-3.5, 208 pounds), two-way right-shot defenseman who skates well for his size. He isn’t overly flashy, but he processes the game at a high level, has good offensive skills, makes difficult reads and possesses a heavy point shot. He plays a hard, physical game and projects as a tough-minutes top-pair defenseman who can reliably chip in offensively.

Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frölunda (SHL)

Stenberg is an electric, high-end offensive talent who routinely makes difficult plays against men in Sweden look easy. He is a natural scorer with excellent puck-handling and passing ability. While his average frame and good-but-not-great skating present minor NHL projection concerns, his elite hockey IQ and battle level make him a potential top-line winger.

Carson Carels, LHD, Prince George (WHL)

Carels is a powerful, fluid skater and a highly physical two-way defender. He closes on checks quickly, using his body and feet to kill opposing rushes with an aggressive edge. While he may not project as a PP1 quarterback, he has enough vision and puck skills to generate reliable offense and projects as a minute-eating, top-four NHL defenseman.

Alberts Smits, LHD, Jukurit (Liiga)

Smits is a tall, mobile defender who uses his length well and projects as a top-pairing guy who can match up against good players and provide a quality amount of offense, even if that’s not his calling card. He’s been excellent versus men all season, having played pro games in Finland and Germany and at the Olympics against NHL players.

Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)

Malhotra has shown massive development over the last 12 months, ending his season on a high note as one of the best players in the OHL playoffs. He’s a 6-foot-2 two-way center whose offensive play has flourished as time has gone on. Whether he can become a true elite scorer at the next level is still up for debate, but there are enough people who believe in his offensive upside that he’s become a legit consideration at the very top of the draft.

What’s at stake for the bottom five teams?Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver has an enigmatic star in Elias Pettersson, but the departure of Quinn Hughes has left a massive hole on its blue line, and the team lacks elite talent in the farm system. The Canucks have a massive need to add talent at the premium positions in center and defense but other than Pettersson, they lack high-end offensive skill in their organization, too. To put it simply, they have needs everywhere. Getting the first pick lets them get the best player in a clustered draft based on their evaluations.

Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago has its franchise centerpiece in Bedard, but doesn’t yet have a true dynamic forward to play with him long-term. Frank Nazar, Roman Kantserov, Anton Frondell and Oliver Moore are tracking well, but the Blackhawks need more top-end offensive skill. Stenberg and McKenna fit that description perfectly. After picking Artyom Levshunov second in 2024, Chase Reid would probably be redundant with Levshunov, although the two-way value of Smits or Verhoeff would be a great fit for Chicago.

New York Rangers

The Rangers didn’t expect to be here, but they are navigating a tricky phase as their veteran core, which they previously built around ages. They have a pressing need for premium young centers or defensemen in their organization. Picking in the top three allows them to dictate the style of player they want. They can’t overlook McKenna or Stenberg, but given how most of their young talent is on the wings, I imagine if it’s close, their preference will likely be for one of the top defensemen in this year’s draft.

Calgary Flames

Calgary is in a rebuild and simply needs to draft the best player available. The Flames lack true elite, cornerstone talent across their prospect pool, other than defenseman Zayne Parekh. Winning the lottery would be monumental for them to add an elite talent, likely one of the scoring wingers.

Toronto Maple Leafs 

The Maple Leafs could end up with picks 1, 2, 5 or none at all due to the conditions with Boston on the Brandon Carlo trade. Toronto had a disastrous season, but it’s hard to imagine a team that has Auston Matthews can’t find a way to quickly retool. Being able to add a premium piece here would do that. While McKenna or Stenberg are likely the closest to stepping into the league, the Leafs have been dying for high-end blue line talent for a decade, and this would be a great opportunity to pick someone at that position.

Ultimately, without a consensus player at No. 1, the reward for winning the lottery is about control. Even if there’s no clear option, picking first among the group means you get to prioritize the type of player you want and control the future for your organization as opposed to having the decision made for you in the picks before your selection.

Draft Lottery odds of winning No. 1 pick

How to watch the NHL Draft Lottery

The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery will be broadcast on Tuesday on ESPN, Sportsnet and TVA Sports. The lottery will take place at 7 p.m. ET.