Here at Jets X-Factor, we’ve spent a lot of time recently discussing the underappreciated upside of New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith.
From his ability to unlock Garrett Wilson’s deep prowess to the sizable gap between him and the Jets’ recent quarterbacks, Smith is capable of bringing more to the table than many New York fans realize. If he performs at his peak, he could be the Jets’ best quarterback in at least a decade.
And for Smith to return to that peak, it is very clear what the Jets must give him.
Geno Smith can still thrive if Jets give him this
The following scatter plot, courtesy of Judah Fortgang (@throwthedamball on X/Twitter), sorts all qualified quarterbacks in the 2025 season based on their EPA (Expected Points Added) when they face “disruption” (X axis) and when they do not face disruption (Y axis). Essentially, it quantifies a quarterback’s efficiency on pressured dropbacks versus unpressured dropbacks.
The takeaway for Smith is clear as day.
via @throwthedamball on X/Twitter
In terms of non-disruption EPA, Smith was still a high-quality quarterback in 2025. Even in a season where he won two games as a starter and led the NFL with 17 interceptions, Smith’s non-disruption EPA ranked 10th-best in the league, joining elite company:
Jared Goff, DET
Jordan Love, GB
Dak Prescott, DAL
Brock Purdy, SF
Daniel Jones, IND
Matthew Stafford, LAR
Drake Maye, NE
Sam Darnold, SEA
C.J. Stroud, HOU
Geno Smith, LVR
Smith’s problem was that when Las Vegas put him in poor situations, he allowed things to go from bad to worse. His disruption EPA was better than only Shedeur Sanders and Joe Flacco.
This is something Smith has to improve upon in 2026. It’s the quarterback’s job to limit the damage when things go wrong around him.
Still, it goes to show that if the Jets give Smith elite pass protection, he can have a fantastic season.
Smith generated top-10 efficiency in situations where he was not disrupted. The more often the Jets ensure he is not disrupted, the more often they can get this top-10 version of Smith.
The Jets are equipped to maximize those dropbacks for Smith. In 2025, they were the NFL’s 15th-ranked pass-blocking team according to Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grade (68.3), and they are on track to climb much higher in 2026.
Tackles Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou are entering their third and second seasons, respectively, after showing incredible upside in 2025. Both being first-round talents with excellent athleticism, they are poised for major leaps in 2026. The same goes for right guard Joe Tippmann, a second-round talent who is entering just his second season as a full-time guard.
Plus, the Jets appear to have upgraded at left guard by swapping John Simpson for Dylan Parham.
Add in the unit’s continuity, as four of the five starters will return from a group that started all 17 games together last season, and the Jets are positioned for a major pass-blocking leap in 2026.
The ceiling is there for this to be a top 5-10 pass-blocking team. If the Jets pull that off, they will give Smith a plethora of clean pockets, allowing him to maximize the top-10 non-disruption efficiency that he still possesses at this stage of the career.
Nonetheless, it is imperative for Smith to hold up better when things break down. Bottom-three efficiency on disrupted plays is untenable for a starting quarterback, no matter how good he is on the well-oiled plays.
But Smith is capable of rebounding. Over the previous three seasons in Seattle, Smith was much better at avoiding negative plays; he took fewer sacks (44.1 per 17 games compared to 62.3 in 2025) and threw fewer interceptions (12.1 per 17 games compared to 19.3 in 2025).
It is entirely possible that Smith’s poor efficiency on disrupted dropbacks during the 2025 season was largely due to the weak supporting cast around him. Without talented receivers to count on for contested throws, and with a brutal offensive line that allowed many unavoidable sacks, Smith was often trapped in situations where there was little he could do to prevent a negative outcome.
The hope is that with a receiver like Garrett Wilson and an offensive line that, even when it gets beat, doesn’t get beat quickly, Smith can turn disrupted dropbacks into more manageable results.
As long as the Jets’ offensive line lives up to its potential and yields a top 5-10 season in the pass protection department, the Jets are bound to have success. Smith can still carve up defenses from a clean pocket with the best of them, and if his pockets are cleaner, he will likely do a better job of treading water in the disrupted pockets, too.