Detroit Tigers Playoff Odds Fall Below 10 Percent After Brutal May Collapse - RAW CHILI

The Detroit Tigers haven’t even played a game in the month of June, and already their playoff odds have dropped below 10 percent.

After closing out one of the most dreadful months in the Detroit Tigers’ 125-plus-year history with a 6-22 record, Detroit finds itself in a deep hole. The month ended with the White Sox delivering the final blow, as the Tigers scored a measly five runs across three games and were swept out of town like nothing more than a dust bunny found under a desk.

As a result, the Tigers now hold an alarmingly low 9.4 percent chance of making the playoffs while sitting at 22-38 through the first two months of the season.

Being down but not out is nothing new for an A.J. Hinch-led Tigers team. As many fans will recall, Detroit found itself in a similar position in 2024. The difference, however, is that the Tigers still had six more wins entering June that season. They sat at 28-30 with a 16.4 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

In fact, things became even more dire later that year when Detroit’s playoff odds reportedly dipped as low as 0.02 percent. Yet somehow, they still found a way to make the postseason. The key difference is that team was only two games below .500 on June 1. This year’s Tigers are 16 games under .500.

So no, I’m not going to sit here and try to convince you that the Tigers are still a playoff team. Even though, in the back of my own mind, I still find myself quoting Randy Marsh from South Park: “I didn’t hear no bell.”

Still, mathematically speaking, there is a chance.

Oddly enough, the playoff picture doesn’t look quite as impossible as it should considering how poorly Detroit has played. Thanks to the expanded Wild Card format, which allows three teams to earn a berth, the Tigers currently sit just seven games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for a playoff spot.

Yes, Detroit owns the worst record in the American League, but the conference as a whole remains somewhat jammed together in the standings. That leaves at least a sliver of hope for Tigers fans who aren’t quite ready to give up on the season.

The Tigers should continue getting players back from the injured list. Kerry Carpenter has already returned, while the club hopes to eventually welcome back Justin Verlander and Tarik Skubal as well. They’ll need all the help they can get as they attempt to piece together a roster that continues to take hits. Most recently, both Kenley Jansen and Casey Mize landed on the injured list, adding to an already lengthy list of absences.

What’s frustrating is that the Tigers don’t even seem quite as bad as their record suggests.

The offense has undoubtedly been atrocious, and Detroit won’t win many more games if it continues averaging roughly two runs per game. However, the pitching staff has been dominant enough to keep the team competitive. Incredibly, the Tigers have lost 25 games this season in which the starting pitcher allowed three runs or fewer.

If they can somehow stabilize the bullpen, stop giving away games late, and find just one extra run per night, those bleak playoff odds could begin climbing little by little.

The Tigers will never count themselves out, but the odds are unquestionably stacked against them.

Now it starts with a series against the Rays. Detroit needs a series win to open June and finally wash away the sour taste left behind by a disastrous month of May.