The Bills opened their offseason with the controversial decision to fire McDermott, followed by retaining and promoting general manager Brandon Beane, then promoting Brady — their former offensive coordinator — as their new coach.
I’m wary of all these moves. While Buffalo did not reach the Super Bowl under McDermott, which is rough given the quality teams it had, I would blame that mostly on close-game luck and variance rather than any systemic issues that McDermott could be blamed for. The best argument for replacing McDermott with Brady was ensuring offensive continuity for former MVP quarterback Josh Allen (because Brady could have been hired elsewhere). But the move comes with significant risk. The Bills haven’t had a great defense on paper, and the defensive-minded McDermott could have been getting the most out of those players. So, what happens now that Buffalo doesn’t have him?
It seems clear that Beane would have been the most logical person in the power structure to replace, yet he remained. Still, the Bills remain a serious threat to win the Super Bowl every season — which would be the case this season regardless of who the head coach or general manager was.
Buffalo’s biggest move was a two-five draft pick swap to obtain Moore. At the time, I graded the trade a “D” for Buffalo, and when I spoke to a few people around the league afterward the sentiment was unanimous — this was an overpay. While Buffalo needed help at wide receiver, the price was substantial considering Moore is coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons in Chicago. The Bills also paid draft capital for the right to take over the bulk of his contract — paying him $24.5 million in each of the four remaining years of his deal.
Buffalo’s best move came just before free agency, when it re-signed McGovern to a four-year, $52 million contract. At $13 million per year, that contract immediately looked like a bargain once Tyler Linderbaum signed a deal worth $27 million per year with the Raiders. McGovern and Linderbaum had almost identical pass block win rates last season, and McGovern had a higher run block win rate. The Bills lost guard David Edwards in free agency, which stings, but retaining McGovern helps soften that blow.
In other on-field moves, the signing of edge rusher Bradley Chubb to a three-year, $43.5 million deal was one of the worst in free agency. Chubb recorded 8.5 sacks last season after sitting out 2024 following a torn ACL in late 2023, but the down-to-down numbers told a different story. Chubb’s pass rush win rate was only 7.6% last season (14th percentile), roughly a third of what he posted in 2023 (21.4%).
Despite my criticisms, the Bills have an open Super Bowl window for at least the next three seasons thanks to Allen, the best quarterback in football. But I don’t think this offseason helped their chances.