The parallels to the summer of 2023 are too great to ignore, but the differences are too large for the Pittsburgh Penguins to expect a similar result.
Bluntly, it’s time for the Penguins to move on from the hopes of doing something dramatic. Instead, it’s time to focus on the trudgery of rebuilding a deeper organization and for general manager Kyle Dubas to embrace the grind of his own rebuilding plan. And it’s perfectly acceptable to concentrate on getting better, internally and incrementally.
Back in 2023, Dubas’s first weeks on the job, the persistent trade rumors involved the Erik Karlsson sweepstakes. The Penguins tried. The Carolina Hurricanes tried. There were even reports of the potential deal being dead until a couple of phone calls led to the blockbuster in which Dubas shed a few unwanted players and salaries to a willing San Jose Sharks team for Karlsson on Aug. 6.
In the summer of 2026, the persistent trade rumors involve Jason Robertson, but other names have floated to the surface, including Darnell Nurse, Elias Pettersson, and Shane Wright. While San Jose snared Nurse from the Edmonton Oilers, the most recent flash points have involved Pettersson, with an unremitting circling back toward Robertson.
As the summer grows shorter and all of the movement settles, the Penguins’ odds for the Stanley Cup are not getting better. The roster is imbalanced on the blue line and overstocked amongst the forwards. They are far from favorites or even Cup contenders, but that’s part of the process and not a preemptor to a headline-grabbing trade.
Sure, the trade chatter and rumors are eminently fascinating for everyone, and they were certainly real. Still, the timing just isn’t right, and nothing the Penguins did during the important days of free agency was able to change that.
The biggest free agent addition for the Penguins was Andrei Kuzmenko, on whom they lavished a $5 million one-year deal. Back in 2022-23, Kuzmenko potted 39 goals with the Vancouver Canucks, but has scored just 46 goals over tenures with four teams in the three seasons since.
Kuzmenko is unlikely to alter the Penguins’ future or even be a part of it. However, two of the Penguins’ catches over the last few weeks are indeed potential long-term answers. The team flipped Parker Wotherspoon and $500,000 to the Vegas Golden Knights for 25-year-old right-handed defenseman Kaedan Korczak, and on July 1, signed 26-year-old emerging lefty blue liner Declan Carlile.
Carlile very much fits in the same mold as Wotherspoon and Ryan Shea, whom Dubas plucked from the shadows of the Boston Bruins organization and AHL, respectively, and presented them with NHL opportunities, which they seized.
And those are the types of moves that have served the Penguins very well. One can also include the Egor Chinakhov trade, as the Penguins surrendered a future second and third-round pick for the Russian winger who promptly scored 18 goals and 36 points in 43 games.
Dubas was also able to acquire Connor Dewar at the 2025 NHL trade deadline and re-signed him last summer. The media-shy Dewar shattered his previous career highs with 14 goals and 30 points.
It’s the same story with now-28-year-old Blake Lizotte, though Lizotte merely became an integral lineup staple worthy of a new three-year contract without setting career highs.
Uncovering discarded or buried talent has proven to be Dubas’s superpower, which makes the Kuzmenko signing even more curious.
Another strength of the Penguins’ front office seems to be drafting. From using the 44th overall pick on Harrison Brunicke to the foresight to eschew most conventional wisdom and select Ben Kindel with the 11th overall pick, followed by genuine potential NHL players Bill Zonnon and Wil Horcoff–all in a supposedly weak draft–support the idea that the Penguins longterm growth is indeed on the right track.
And there are several more draft picks from the Dubas era that could surprise before long, too.
Unfortunately for those invested in the trade chase, the largest schism between 2023 and 2026 is the status of the team. The ’23 version was still clinging to the potential of winning one more Stanley Cup, while the ’26 iteration is hoping to take a sustainable step forward toward competitiveness.
The hyperinflation of prices on the trade market can’t be overlooked, either. The Seattle Kraken reportedly asked the Vancouver Canucks for either their top defenseman prospects for young center Shane Wright, who had just 27 points last season and has requested a trade.
The Philadelphia Flyers were willing to surrender four first-round picks to the Anaheim Ducks for restricted free agent Leo Carlsson for the privilege to vastly overpay him, shelling out $18 million per season.
And the reported cost for Jason Robertson was the equivalent of four first-round level assets, though subsequent reports indicate the Dallas Stars have remained in pursuit of a new contract for the RFA Robertson rather than a trade.
The rapidly rising salary cap has created a scarcity of available players, and so the costs on the trade market have equally risen. And there seems little doubt the Penguins and Dubas, sooner rather than later, will get to a place in which they can afford the asking prices for the players they want.
It would seem the worst thing Dubas could do now is try too hard and force something that doesn’t fit, such as spending too much for Robertson, or a dangerous gamble on Pettersson. He’s done a very good job in his now three-plus-year tenure, and Dubas’s efforts are beginning to show results. But it will take more time, and nothing they were able to do in the days leading up to, or the days after, free agency has altered their trajectory.
But it remains a good trajectory and one worth their long-term commitment.
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Categorized:Penguins Trade Talk