When Utah Mammoth general manager Bill Armstrong was asked why he matched the offer sheet for center Barrett Hayton his answer was also telling for those following the Dylan Larkin saga.
NHL GMs have gotten real about first and second-round picks.
“A second-round pick has about a 30 percent chance of playing in the NHL,” Armstrong said. “It doesn’t make sense. We don’t need a pick off in the future. We need a player who is a proven NHLer.”
Armstrong was talking about the compensation the Mammoth would have received for Hayton had too much uncertainty to accept losing a regular in his lineup. If Steve Yzerman was a GM who talked regularly with the media, he could definitely make a statement similar to Armstrong’s regarding his potential trading of Larkin.
Draft Picks Often Fail to Deliver
Yzerman has made it clear that he won’t accept any offer that doesn’t include a proven player or players for Larkin. A true understanding of the value and risk of draft picks, even first-round picks, has become a bigger part of a NHL teams’ a approach
NHL GMs now factor in the probability of landing a regular from a first- and second-round picks. Armstrong’s numbers aren’t wrong. A recent Detroit Hockey Now review of draft picks from 2011 to 2020 showed the second-round yield of true NHLers to be about 34 percent.
Your final number depends on how you define being a true NHLer. We used 200 games played. Our numbers for the first round showed that the first round consists of two different player pools. When you draft from No. 1 to No. 15, NHL teams had an 83% chance of getting a regular. But a first round pick from No. 16 to No. 32 only yields an NHL regular 50 to 55%. The added problem is that most teams willing to move first round picks are good teams that will be picking outside the first 15 picks.
Those numbers explain why GMs have eyes wide open when they are trading proven players for draft picks with far less certainty.
No one thinks draft picks are worthless. Far from it. This distribution system serves the sport well. But when you are about to lose a proven player, some GMs have decided they want better than a 30% of 50 to 55% chance of getting a fair return.
That’s why Yzerman is insisting on a Larkin return that include proven assets. Ideally, he would want a package with a proven player or two, plus and a first round pick.
In Case You Missed It
Bob Duff wonders if the Red Wings had made the playoffs last season would they be facing the problems they are enduring this summer. Would Dylan Larkin have asked for a trade had Detroit qualified? Would Patrick Kane be planning to stay?
The Detroit Sports Media’s selection of Emmitt Finnie as Red Wings Rookie of the Year reminds us that his role on the team for next season is unclear.
Max Smith tries to sort out goalie Michal Postava’s place with the Red Wings organization for next season
Red Wings Extra
Grand Rapids Griffins center Tyler Angle (62 games, 27 points) signed to play with Leksand IF next season. That team is in Sweden’s 2nd Tier Hockeyallsvenskan. Canadian Angle, 25, had previously played a season in Germany. He also has played four NHL games with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Hockey Now Digest
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Philadelphia: William James explains what’s next for the Flyers after their Leo Carlsson offer sheet failed to deliver. Philadelphia Flyers.
New Jersey: Exploring a Shane Wright trade overture seems like a logical Plan B for the New Jersey Devils.
Pittsburgh: Dan Kingerski looking at the few remaining free agent defenseman that might interest the Pittsburgh Penguins.