Texas college football in 12 questions: A 2026 season primer - RAW CHILI

Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) dons the Golden Hat trophy as he celebrates with fans and teammates after a victory over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry NCAA college football game at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025, in Dallas.

Smiley N. Pool/Staff Photographer

As the 2026 season approaches, fans and writers near Texas football, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and a slew of other schools in the state have some pressing questions.

How good will the Longhorns be? Or the Aggies? How many teams in the state will qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff? Will Texas State impress during its first Pac-12 season? And of course, who wins the national title and Heisman Trophy?

Four award-winning sports columnists from prominent Texas news outlets — the American-Statesman, Houston Chronicle, San Antonio News-Express and The Dallas Morning News — tackle these questions and more.

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Here’s what they had to say about the 2026 college football season:

Find all 12 questions and answers from our columnists in a special print college football preview section available at store.dallasnews.com . The special section includes stories from the four news outlets listed above and covers several Texas universities.

Which Texas university has the best shot at a national title?

Kirk Bohls, Houston Chronicle: It had better be the Longhorns or there will be more than a few angry Bevos and maybe even a mutiny in Austin. Texas has the most complete roster of any Lone Star team with no obviously discernible weaknesses, except maybe special teams; a challenging but not insurmountable schedule with six of its first eight games at home and one in Dallas (Oklahoma); a new defensive coordinator who has few peers but a little rust and — guess what — no Georgia on the schedule.

Mike Finger, San Antonio Express-News: Texas Tech has all the modern-day prerequisites to give itself a chance. The Red Raiders spend as much roster-building money as just about anybody. They play in a conference that shouldn’t put up too many roadblocks. And if they suffer a big loss, they know how to find a judge to overturn it.

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Cedric Golden, Austin American-Statesman: Texas is a legitimate title contender because Steve Sarkisian saw areas of need and addressed them.
The running game stagnated, so he reeled in Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown. Sark dropped around $3 million to bring in an All-America type receiver in Cam Coleman. He pink-slipped DC Pete Kwiatkowski and hired Will Muschamp, one of the best defensive minds of his generation. And then there’s the Arch Manning factor. He’s a superstar in the mold of Vince Young and Colt McCoy, just the type of field leader the Horns need to take that next step.

Kevin Sherrington, Dallas Morning News: First of all, let me say I’m flattered to be included among such distinguished panelists. Mike Finger is so good, I don’t mind losing to him in sportswriting contests. No matter how often it happens. Cedric Golden is a national award winner. And I grew up reading Kirk Bohls’ stuff, as did my father before me. Anyway, identifying the Texas team with the best shot at a national title will no doubt come down to Leftovers Day, when Texas visits Texas A&M. If both survive difficult schedules that would pump up their CFP résumés, we’ll get our answer. My guess now is Texas, mostly because of their firepower. But, unlike at least one of us, I’m keeping an open mind.

Who is more likely to crash the CFP party: SMU or UH?

Bohls: I’ll go with SMU because of a more favorable schedule despite road trips to Louisville and Florida State in the first three weeks and a late-season trip to Notre Dame. Plus, SMU’s been there before. Rhett Lashlee, one of the best coaches in the business, has molded the Mustangs into a perennial ACC contender and has a healthier quarterback Kevin Jennings this year and probably the league’s best offensive line. But don’t sleep on the Cougars or Willie Fritz in his Year 3 because they should be very good.

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Finger: What we learned last January is that if your school was really good at basketball in the 1980s, and if your football program gets lost in the wilderness for a few decades, and if you hire a no-nonsense coach from a non-power conference, things can turn around in a hurry. Houston fits the bill. So maybe Fritz’s Cougars can make it to the Final Four a year after an Indiana national title, the same way Phi Slama Jama did.

Golden: SMU. The Mustangs don’t have to play Miami, Clemson or North Carolina State in the regular season.

Sherrington: Hard to bet against Jennings, whose 18 wins are the third-most of any returning quarterback. But if Houston can beat Texas Tech on Sept. 18 in Lubbock, the Cougars will have the inside track. A coin flip. Give me SMU.

SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings leads the Break The Rock event, on Thursday, July 30, 2026 at Southern Methodist University in University Park. The event marks the end of summer workouts by physically break a rock like they do after each win.

Shafkat Anowar/The Dallas Morning News

How many Texas schools make the CFP? List them.

Bohls: I’ll say three with Texas, Texas Tech and SMU, but I think the Mustangs are more of a dark horse and could easily be omitted. Sorry, Aggies. A&M and Houston will contend, but I’m afraid the SEC schedule and a rebuilt offensive line holds Mike Elko’s team back and the Cougars are a year away from making a big splash despite a veteran quarterback, a new old running back from Tulane days and the most underrated coach in America in Fritz.

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Finger: What if it’s zero? Texas and A&M have three daunting SEC road trips apiece. Tech is rolling with what it thought would be its backup quarterback. SMU and Houston might be trendy underdog picks, but they’re still underdogs. The playoff went along just fine without any Lone Star State participation for the first 10 years of its existence, and it’s not unthinkable it could happen again.

Golden: Two. Texas and Texas Tech. That about covers it.

Sherrington: Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech.

Which team in the state might surprise people?

Bohls: Easily Texas State. I’m not saying the Bobcats will shock the Longhorns in the opener, but I bet they’ll score some points. They have a prolific quarterback in Brad Jackson, who totaled almost 4,000 yards in offense last season, completed 71% of his passes and could well be the best Group of 6 quarterback with 13 college starts. Texas State also has an offensive mastermind in rising star GJ Kinne, proven wide receivers in Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. and a ton of momentum from a move to the Pac-12. But can the defense hold up its end? That’s the one area the Bobcats need to improve after finishing 79th, 53rd and 94th nationally in total defense the last three seasons.

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Finger: After back-to-back conference titles in 2022 and 2023, UTSA has done some understandable backsliding since joining the American. But that sets coach Jeff Traylor up for what he does best, which is convincing a team it can shock the world — whether the world is paying attention or not.

Golden: Houston. The Cougars are the only Power Four team to bring back their head coach, starting quarterback and both coordinators from the previous season.

Sherrington: Tarleton State. The Texans beat Army for an FBS win last year, and this year’s victim will be Bowling Green. Nashville or bust, as they say in Stephenville.

Tarleton State Texans quarterback Victor Gabalis (11) catches the snap during practice at Tarleton Memorial Stadium in Stephenville, TX on Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025.

Juan Figueroa/Staff Photographer

Which team is most likely to disappoint?

Bohls: Hello, Baylor. Didn’t you used to be a defensive wizard, Dave Aranda? The seventh-year head coach has only two winning seasons in Waco and probably would have been pink-slipped a year ago but for the drama with outgoing athletic director Mack Rhoades and the need to save money. Yes, he has Florida transfer D.J. Lagway, who has explosive talent, and 13 returning starters, but the Bears finish with four salty road games in their last six, including BYU and Houston in their last three sandwiched around Texas Tech.

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Finger: For the 85th or 86th year in a row, there is no reasonable answer other than Texas A&M. In order to experience true disappointment, one must first experience true hope. And summer after summer, no alumni base is better at hope than the Aggies’.

Golden: Texas A&M. The Aggies play road games against LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma and then conclude with a home game against Texas. The road to the playoff is fraught with massive obstacles.

Sherrington: Of the state’s top contenders, only Texas Tech doesn’t have a truly experienced quarterback. A difference-maker, at least initially.

Name your Heisman winner and two finalists.

Bohls: Give me Notre Dame quarterback C.J. Carr, who has weapons, experience after a solid Year 1 and maybe the nation’s best offensive line for protection. Two other finalists will be Oregon quarterback Dante Moore and Texas quarterback Arch Manning.

Finger: The last four trophies have gone to a player who’d transferred at least once, and eight of the last 10 have gone to quarterbacks. So let’s go with Oregon’s Moore, the original UCLA signee who fits the bill, followed by LSU’s Sam Leavitt and Penn State’s Rocco Becht.

Golden: The Heisman goes to Manning. Finalists are Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Moore.

Sherrington: None of the usual quarterback suspects do anything to separate themselves from the rest, and Jeremiah Smith, the best player in the nation last year, gets his overdue reward. Moore and Trinidad Chambliss finish Nos. 2-3. Confession: This feels a little like Kirk not voting for Vince Young back in the day. Fortunately I can still change my mind if results so dictate. In Kirk’s nightmares, VY is forever waving at him from the corner of a Rose Bowl end zone.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) throws a touchdown pass to wide receiver Deandre Moore Jr. during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025, in Dallas.

Smiley N. Pool/Staff Photographer

Which of the state’s starting QBs would you rather have?

Bohls: I’ll take the Arch show. You can win big with Jennings and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, but Manning showed his true talent down the stretch with 15 touchdowns and two picks in the last eight games. Once labeled college football’s biggest flop, he flipped the script and excelled despite unreliable receivers, who should be much better in 2026.

Finger: Because I’m frugal, and a bit old-fashioned, give me Texas State’s Brad Jackson. The redshirt sophomore didn’t command an exorbitant NIL deal on the open market, even though there are going to be boosters across the country who might end up wishing they’d opened their checkbooks for him. He’s the key to Kinne’s offense, and might be the best Group of 6 quarterback in the country.

Golden: Manning. He has the pieces in place to take his game to the next level.

Sherrington: Lagway might have something to say about it at Baylor. Interesting to see what a change of scenery does for a once-heralded QB, though you’d think the view from Gainesville beats Waco’s. Of the other three quarterbacks, each is talented, if inconsistent. Seems like Jennings has hit his ceiling. Maybe Reed, too. Genetics would suggest there’s still a lot more to come from Manning, who needs to pick up where he left off last year. As it is, he’s the QB that NFL scouts prefer.

Make one bold prediction about Arch Manning’s season.

Bohls: Manning will lead the nation in passing touchdowns. And headlines.

Finger: He will obliterate the college football single-season record for the highest number of cliché-filled, intentionally boring news conference quotes that end up being aggregated into controversies anyway.

Golden: He will account for 45 touchdowns — 32 passing and 13 rushing.

Sherrington: Paul Finebaum interrupts the SEC championship trophy presentation to announce he’s adopting Arch.

Where will Texas State finish in its inaugural Pac-12 season?

Bohls: I’ll put the Bobcats at 8-4 and a third-place finish in their new league, but that could be slightly underselling them. Besides Texas, they also have tough road trips to Boise State and San Diego State as well as a home date with Fresno State.

Finger: The Bobcats will beat four conference opponents whose name ends with “State.” And they will lose to three conference opponents whose name ends with “State.” That should be good enough for fourth place. It’s hard to get any more specific than that.

Golden: 6-6 overall, 3-4 in conference. The Bobcats finish sixth but get a bowl game.

Sherrington: Kinne finishes fifth in the pared-down Pac-12, right in the meaty part of the curve.

Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire points to his team after winning the Big 12 Championship game at AT&T Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025, in Arlington. Texas Tech defeated BYU 34-7.

Elías Valverde II/Staff Photographer

Where will Texas Tech finish in the Big 12?

Bohls: The Red Raiders will defend their title and repeat. Seven home games with neither BYU nor Utah on the schedule and Cody Campbell’s wallet should position Joey McGuire’s team and 14 starters well for another championship run, if only the talented Will Howard recovers quickly from his torn ACL. I expect the Brendan Sorsby drama to fuel this team instead of give it a mental hangover.

Finger: Second. No obvious juggernaut stands in the way of a second consecutive league title. But in a 16-team conference, there’s always a chance that someone can take advantage of an unforeseen schedule advantage. Between BYU, Utah, Kansas State and Arizona, somebody’s primed to pounce if everything falls into place.

Golden: The Red Raiders will win the Big 12 and finish 10-2 behind Hutto legend and new starting quarterback Will Hammond.

Sherrington: Even without Sorsby, Tech is the class of the Big 12. As it stands now, only Houston looms as a potential upset. If Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, Campbell will ask Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to sue the league for reparations. Maybe they’d recover enough to pay for all those “All roads lead through Lubbock” yard signs.

What’s your ideal amount of College Football Playoff teams?

Bohls: Let’s stick with an even dozen. We’ve only had a small sample size after two years and should let this model breathe. Twenty-four teams seem like way too many and might diminish the impact of the only meaningful regular season in sports that really matters. Yes, it would be provide more exciting games down the stretch for many with greater access to the postseason, but if it were only about that, let’s go to a 48-team bracket.

Finger: Until the players involved are allowed to collectively bargain, no more than eight. There’s no good reason a playoff should stretch past the second weekend of January.

Golden: I like 16 teams with the format similar to the NFL. Shoot, you already pay your players and follow most of the pro rules except for pass interference. All we’re missing is a college football version of “Hard Knocks.” Adding four more teams will keep fan interest buzzing late into the season. Going to 24 participants like the Big Ten was proposing just seems like way too many. Can you really tell me there are 24 teams out there capable of winning a championship? I have few complaints about the current format, but 16 sounds sexier.

Sherrington: I’m fine with a dozen, but that ship has sailed. They’re determined to get to 24, meaning they will. The only way to do that is to get rid of the league title games and start the tournament the last weekend of November. Means you’d have to reschedule Texas-Texas A&M and others, but it’s worth it to keep it a one-semester sport. Give the top eight teams a first-round bye and you’re done on Jan. 1, just like God intended. All the school-jumping by players and coaches can start the next day. If the FCS can run a 24-team tournament and live to talk about it, the FBS can, too.

What will be the national title matchup and who wins?

Bohls: Sorry, SEC. Notre Dame will beat Oregon. These are two of the most experienced and CFP-ready ball clubs with veteran quarterbacks and experience on both sides of the ball. The Irish, however, may have the best defense in college football and the friendliest schedule with only daunting games against BYU, Miami and maybe SMU and are fueled by last season’s omission from the post-season tournament.

Finger: Oregon over Notre Dame. That would give the Big Ten four championships in a row, won by four different members, and it would be the fourth consecutive year the SEC falls short of the title game. Greg Sankey will use this as further evidence the league deserves more bids.

Golden: Oregon over Georgia. Ducks coach Dan Lanning has had a couple of dubious playoff moments, but he has the ingredients needed to break through in Year 5: a potent offense with a dynamic quarterback in Moore, a strong schedule that includes a pair of recent national champions in Michigan and Ohio State, and the experience of having been here before. The Big Ten will grab its fourth consecutive title trophy.

Sherrington: After losing to Texas in Austin, Ohio State wins Round 2 to the end the CFP. Or Round 4, if you count the semifinals from a couple of years ago and last year’s game in Columbus. Remarkable that two such storied programs have only played each other five times. As the nation’s richest programs in the Big Bucks Era, they’ll be seeing a lot of each other from here on out.

More CFB preview

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