As I like to do throughout the year, I’m checking in on my previous Pittsburgh Steelers predictions to see what I got right and what I got wrong. This time, we’re examining my Steelers 53-man roster projections to see where I hit and where I missed.

What I Got Right
RB Travis Homer Off The Roster

One of the few areas of disagreement across all Steelers roster projections was the third running back spot. It felt like a fluid and true competition from start-to-finish. I might’ve been the first to leave Homer off my roster and shuffle him to the practice squad instead. Ultimately, that’s what the Steelers did with him and Lew Nichols.

As I’ll outline below, I didn’t completely get the running back position correct, but I had the sense Homer wasn’t going to make the initial 53. Especially after he was one of the few veterans to suit up in the preseason finale.

Safeties Rayshawn Jenkins & Robert Spears-Jennings Sticking

Several projections made a choice between one of the two. The veteran in Jenkins or the rookie in Spears-Jennings. I kept both on my final projection.

No one had any clue DeShon Elliott would begin the year on injured reserve, which certainly made it easier and more obvious to include Jenkins and Spears-Jennings. But I felt pretty confident Pittsburgh wouldn’t leave either off. The Steelers value Jenkins for his experience, while Spears-Jennings had a strong summer and deserved a spot.

Only Included Two Players Who Didn’t Make It

It sounds kind of funny to include this in the “right” category, but as far as roster projections go, this is pretty good. Excluding the injured reserve-bound Elliott, only two names I included on my final roster didn’t make the initial 53: linebacker Elandon Roberts and offensive tackle Broderick Jones, the latter traded to the Dallas Cowboys.

Compare that to my 2025 roster prediction in which six players I included failed to make the 53: RB Trey Sermon, OT Dylan Cook, ILB Mark Robinson, CB James Pierre, CB Beanie Bishop and S Chuck Clark. That was partially due to roster shuffling, Pierre and Clark circled back, but 2026’s edition was much cleaner. I’ll take that as a win.

What I Got Wrong
Including LB Elandon Roberts

The one big miss was keeping Roberts in my prediction. I gave little thought to including him after the Steelers brought him back in mid-August. In hindsight, the warning signs were there. Roberts played virtually the entire preseason finale, a sign that’s often troubling for veterans.

In the moment, it felt like the Steelers just wanted a veteran out there to call the defense and to allow Roberts to shake his offseason rust, but the team decided to go light at linebacker with just eight total — four outside, four inside.

The Third Running Back Spot

While I was correct in leaving Homer off, I was incorrect in my belief the team would initially carry just two true runners in Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle. Rookie Eli Heidenreich made the squad as the Steelers kept all 10 draft picks. A strong performance in the preseason finale likely cemented Heidenreich’s spot.

Not Keeping Seven Defensive Linemen

Yet again, I talked myself into keeping just six defensive linemen. Yet again, I was wrong. A new regime didn’t change the d-line math for the franchise. Pittsburgh’s clear investment in the trenches continues.

Even had I stretched my roster to seven, I wouldn’t have guessed UDFA Kevin Jobity Jr. I would’ve added Dean Lowry. Wrong on both fronts, and a lesson learned for 2027.

Roster Deconstruction

One last look at my offseason predictions. My annual “roster deconstruction” offseason series guessed the odds every player had to make the 53-man roster. The Steeler with the highest odds who did not make it was ILB Malik Harrison at 60 percent.

By the time training camp started, it became clear Harrison wasn’t going to last. Dave Bryan was correct in calling it very early in the offseason. Harrison wasn’t on my or anyone’s roster predictions by the end.

The player with the lowest odds who stuck was center Ryan McCollum at 20 percent. Trading Broderick Jones made the math easier, but McCollum did well to hold Brock Hoffman off as the backup center. At the time, we placed Jobity’s odds at an even higher 25 percent, though I didn’t think his chances were nearly that strong by summer’s end.

While these odds were ultimately proven wrong, it’s a better showing than our 2025 list. Two years ago, I gave CB Beanie Bishop Jr. a 96 percent chance to make the team while QB Skylar Thompson made it despite the 5 percent chance I assigned him.