Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored to beat out reigning NFC South champions Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers for the division crown in 2026. Julio Aguilar / Getty Images
Sept. 3, 2026 5:00 am EDT Updated
Single-digit wins have been enough to claim the NFC South crown in three of the past four seasons — and it’ll likely be enough to do it again in 2026.
The Athletic‘s predictive analyst Austin Mock forecasts all four teams to finish with between six and eight wins while sportsbooks like DraftKings list odds that give each between an 18 and 35 percent implied probability to come out on top. Let’s take a look at the board, then dive into Mock’s projections and his take on what will be the tightest (if weakest) division race of the NFL season.
NFC South oddsNFC South projections
TeamWinsPlayoffsDivisionSuper Bowl
8.0
39.5%
31.8%
1.0%
7.9
36.0%
28.1%
0.6%
6.9
27.6%
21.2%
0.5%
6.7
24.8%
19.0%
0.5%
The NFC South is such a toss up — no team stands head and shoulders above the rest, which means all four are capable of winning the division.
I mostly agree that the Bucs should be considered the favorites going into the season. They have arguably the best quarterback in the division, maybe even the best overall roster. But at this point, am I trusting them without longtime stars Mike Evans and Lavonte David? How do they replace those guys? There is some serious uncertainty there.
I’m not sure I’m a believer in the Panthers just yet given their uncertainty at offensive tackle, but they are still capable of winning this division about one-fifth of the time.
I was quite excited about the Saints and their offense under head coach Kellen Moore this time last month, but it doesn’t look like first-round rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson will be ready anytime soon.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have yet to pick a Week 1 starter from their crowded quarterback room.
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I’m not very confident in any of these teams, so calling this the tightest division in the NFL is pretty spot on — even if it’s because it’s the worst in football.
Last season, the Panthers claimed the crown after winning only eight games by emerging from a three-way tiebreaker. This season, I firmly believe eight wins could once again be enough for any of these teams to take the title. My model believes every NFC South team is a below-average NFL team, all sitting within two points of each other from a power rating perspective.
Sep 3, 2026
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