As the MLB season enters the home stretch, the big award races are coming into focus as well.
With about two weeks to play, Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez remains the favorite to end Aaron Judge’s two-year reign as American League MVP, and New York’s Cam Schlittler looks to have a slim but decisive edge over Toronto’s Dylan Cease in the AL Cy Young Award hunt. Those figure to garner the big headlines, but numerous Red Sox players should be in the running for year-end honors as well.
Here is where things stand with the club’s top award candidates.
Gold Glove favorites
If the publicly available metrics are any indication, the Red Sox have three starters who should be strong contenders — if not heavy favorites — to win Gold Glove awards.
Wilyer Abreu looks like a lock to win his third consecutive Gold Glove in right field. Entering Saturday, he led all MLB players — not just right fielders, all positions — with plus-26 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs. His Statcast fielding metrics are also bright red across the board, including an arm strength grade that registers 98th percentile.
Ceddanne Rafaela should be a heavy favorite to repeat as Gold Glove winner among AL center fielders. Rafaela leads all MLB center fielders with plus-20 defensive runs saved, and his Statcast metrics are off the charts. His Fielding Run Value and Range both grade as 98th percentile or higher, putting him within the top-five in the sport, and he obviously passes the eye test with highlight-reel grabs seemingly every other game.
Caleb Durbin has also solidified himself as a top candidate to win his first career Gold Glove at third base. The second-year infielder leads AL third baseman with plus-11 defensive runs saved, which ironically ranks second in MLB behind only the man he replaced, former Red Sox and current Chicago Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman. Durbin’s Statcast metrics are also strong, including a Range grade that comes in at 89th percentile.
Anecdotally it’s often felt like Willson Contreras should be a strong contender at first base, too. The first-year Red Sox slugger has flashed some impressive leather and made a habit of making some incredible throws, a tool many first baseman don’t bring to the table. But the metrics don’t support Contreras’ candidacy, as he surprisingly only has an even zero defensive runs saved and Statcast metrics that can be described as good but not great.
For reference, Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads AL first basemen with plus-10 defensive runs saved, followed by Kansas City’s Vinnie Pasquantino (plus-seven). Contreras also ranks eighth in Fielding Run Value among AL first basemen.
Red Sox left-hander Aroldis Chapman once again ranks among the top closers in baseball this year. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Chapman among AL’s top relievers
Many of the major awards fans are familiar with — including MVP, the Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, etc. — are not actually awarded by MLB. They are awarded by the Baseball Writers Association of America, and this year for the first time the BBWAA will hand out a new award recognizing each league’s top relief pitcher.
Aroldis Chapman will be a strong candidate to win the AL’s inaugural honor.
Chapman, who won MLB’s version of the AL Reliever of the Year award last fall, has remained the among league’s top closers in his second season with the Red Sox. The veteran left-hander entered the weekend with 33 saves, a 2.03 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings, ranking among the AL’s leaders in all four categories among closers, and he also recently became the ninth pitcher in MLB history to reach 400 career saves.
Few have been as dominant as Chapman this season, but if there’s one thing that hurts his candidacy it’s been his relative lack of usage.
So far Chapman has only appeared in 50 games, significantly less than the other AL relievers who have topped 30 saves. That list includes Tampa Bay’s Bryan Baker (39), Cleveland’s Cade Smith (36), Toronto’s Louis Varland (33) and New York’s David Bednar (33), all of whom have thrown more innings and in most cases tallied more strikeouts.
It hasn’t been an issue of lack of availability, the Red Sox have just had long stretches without a lot of save opportunities, especially early in the season.
The biggest challenger to Chapman looks like it will probably be Smith, who has not just shouldered a heavier workload but exceeded Chapman in posting some outstanding rate stats, too. His 95 strikeouts over 66 innings equates to 13.0 strikeouts per nine, beating out Chapman’s 12.0 mark, and he’s also allowed fewer baserunners on average, posting a 1.045 Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched compared to Chapman’s 1.130 WHIP.
Veteran Red Sox right-hander Sonny Gray is enjoying one of the best seasons of his MLB career. (Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald)
Gray’s case for Cy Young finalist
Sonny Gray probably won’t win the AL Cy Young Award. Unless something extraordinary happens, the award will almost certainly go to either Schlittler or Cease, but after the season he’s had, Gray certainly has a case to finish as a finalist alongside those two.
Despite being inexplicably snubbed for an All-Star nod, Gray has been one of the American League’s most consistent starters all season long. Gray leads all AL pitchers with 17 wins, ranks fourth in ERA (2.76), fifth in Wins Above Replacement for pitchers (4.0) and has stepped in as the Red Sox’s ace after Garrett Crochet went down early in the season. He is among the biggest reasons why the Red Sox are likely to make the playoffs and will probably start Game 1 of the club’s first series.
This has also been among the best seasons of the 36-year-old’s career. His ERA is the lowest since he became a full-time starter in 2014, and his ERA+ of 149 — which equates to 49% better than league average — is the third highest trailing only his All-Star seasons in 2019 and 2023.
Gray’s top competitors for the last AL Cy Young finalist spot include Guardians rookie Parker Messick, who currently leads Gray in most major categories, as well as guys like Kansas City’s Michael Wacha, Los Angeles’ Reid Detmers and Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen.
Red Sox left-hander Payton Tolle probably won’t win AL Rookie of the Year, but he’s been one of the league’s top young pitchers and should finish near the top of the vote. (Matt Stone/Boston Herald)
Young arms among top rookies
Similar to Gray, Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett probably won’t win AL Rookie of the Year, but both have a good argument to finish inside the top five.
Tolle has been remarkable in his first full season as a big leaguer, posting a 3.15 ERA over 137 innings while striking out 159, the second-highest total by a Red Sox rookie in a season behind only Daisuke Matsuzaka’s 201 in 2007. His innings and strikeout totals both rank second among AL rookies behind only Cleveland’s Messick and Tolle is likely to start a playoff game for the Red Sox come October.
Bennett got shelled in his last start, but generally speaking he’s been fantastic for the Red Sox and has played a huge role in keeping the club’s rotation afloat. Since making his big league debut, Bennett has made 18 starts, posted a 3.69 ERA in 105 innings while limiting opposing batters to 1.6 walks per nine innings, by far the lowest rate among AL rookies with at least 50 innings pitched.
Neither Tolle or Bennett has an argument over Messick, who as noted above might finish as high as third in the Cy Young vote, and even he isn’t a shoe-in to win AL Rookie of the Year. Detroit third baseman Kevin McGonigle is currently the betting favorite, leading all AL rookies with 6.1 WAR along with a .271 average, 16 home runs, 62 RBI, 12 stolen bases and a .788 OPS.
Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy has helped engineer a remarkable turnaround since taking over in late April. (AP Photo/Scott Marshall)
Tracy for Manager of the Year?
Since taking over as Red Sox interim manager in late April, Chad Tracy has done a remarkable job, first helping stabilize the club after a disappointing start and eventually helping engineer one of the most dramatic second-half turnarounds in franchise history.
Tracy hasn’t yet been awarded with the full-time gig, but could he soon earn a different kind of reward?
At this stage of the season the AL Manager of the Year is likely down to three contenders. In addition to Tracy, White Sox skipper Will Venable will draw strong consideration for his role in helping elevate the South Siders from a perennial laughingstock to the AL Central favorites.
Coming into the season, the White Sox had posted three consecutive 100-loss seasons and were only two years removed from a historically woeful 121-loss campaign. The club wasn’t expected to be quite that bad this season, but they certainly weren’t on anyone’s radar for a playoff spot, so Venable deserves a lot of credit for helping get his young team ready to compete.
Tracy’s other main competitor will be Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash, who has already won the award twice and might take it home for a third this fall.
Like the White Sox, the Rays were not viewed as a playoff contender coming into the season. In fact, coming off consecutive losing seasons the Rays were viewed by many — myself included — as a clear last-place club destined to struggle amid a loaded AL East. Instead, Tampa Bay flipped the script, raced to the front of the pack and is now well positioned to finish with the AL’s best record.
Neither of them had to manage a situation like Tracy, who was abruptly called up from Triple-A and had to integrate an entirely re-shaped hitting staff on the fly. Unlike the other races that seem to have one or two clear favorites, Tracy, Venable and Cash all have compelling cases and the winner could come down to a small handful of votes.