Only twice in the past 30 seasons has a team ranked No. 1 in the AP poll lost in either its first or second game.
Preseason No. 1 Texas at Ohio State last year. And now preseason No. 1 Ohio State at Texas on Saturday.
The Buckeyes, who received 46 first-place votes in the AP poll last week, are set to fall from No. 1 after blowing a 20-point lead at the start of the fourth quarter to lose 24-23 to the No. 4 Longhorns.
What can we expect when the new AP Top 25 is released at 2 p.m. ET Sunday? Here’s what to watch for. Check back for the poll results and Ralph Russo’s vote this afternoon.
Who will be No. 1?
Though Texas received only four first-place votes last week, the Longhorns are the clear favorite to replace Ohio State atop the poll.
After all, preseason No. 2 Oregon, which fell to sixth after a close win against Boise State, is set to plummet following its loss to Oklahoma State, which had lost 12 games in a row. No. 2 Georgia (zero first-place votes last week) and No. 3 Notre Dame (four) both won by 50-plus points on Saturday, but against WKU and Rice, respectively. Neither is a needle-mover. They’re likely to hold steady in the rankings.
Expect Texas’ fourth-quarter rally to push it to the top of the poll.
Week 2 results for AP Top 25
RankTeamResult
1
L 24-23 at No. 4 Texas
2
W 70-20 vs. WKU
3
W 52-0 vs. Rice
4
W 24-23 vs. No. 1 Ohio State
5
W 55-0 vs. Howard
6
L 39-31 at Oklahoma State
7
W 77-7 vs. Florida A&M
8
W 45-14 vs. Louisiana Tech
9
W 41-9 vs. Charlotte
10
W 48-20 vs. Arizona State
11
L 17-10 at Michigan
12
W 45-17 at Kentucky
13
W 35-24 at Oregon State
14
W 49-30 vs. Louisiana
15
W 28-17 vs. Arizona
16
W 27-9 at Temple
17
W 56-10 vs. UC Davis
18
W 45-24 at Georgia Tech
19
W 16-14 vs. Utah State
20
W 43-10 vs. Arkansas
21
W 16-13 vs. Iowa State
22
W 77-6 vs. Southern
23
W 38-21 at Kansas
24
W 59-13 vs. Villanova
25
W 59-3 vs. Norfolk State
How far will Ohio State fall?
Last year is probably a good guide. No matter how bad the ending was, the Buckeyes lost by only one point on the road to a presumed national championship contender. A year ago, Texas fell from No. 1 to No. 7 after its seven-point road loss to Ohio State. Around seventh feels like a safe bet for Ohio State in the poll today.
Preseason rankings featured a top tier of Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana and Miami. The Ducks have been ejected from that group of seven, with LSU perhaps rising.
Risers/fallers
• Preseason No. 16 Michigan fell out of the poll after its controversial win over Western Michigan. According to College Poll Tracker, 22 voters had the Wolverines on their ballot last week. Though some are still likely to treat the Western Michigan game as a loss, Michigan’s win over No. 11 Oklahoma will presumably be enough to launch the Wolverines back into the Top 25. They were effectively 28th last week, so top 20 is a reasonable expectation.
• Will Oklahoma stay in the rankings? Again, we can look back at last year for an example. When Oklahoma beat then-No. 15 Michigan 24-13 in Norman, the Wolverines fell eight spots to No. 23. Oklahoma’s inept offensive performance combined with Michigan’s lackluster Week 1 showing is sure to hurt the Sooners more than eight spots, but don’t be shocked if OU hangs onto a ranking.
• Will Oregon stay in the rankings? If the Ducks fall out, it would be the second-largest tumble from the poll ever. According to College Poll Archive, the record was set by Michigan in 2007, when it fell from No. 5 to unranked following its loss to Appalachian State. Next up: Then-No. 7 Penn State fell out after losing to winless UCLA last season. Oregon already tumbled four spots after a Week 1 win, so it’ll be interesting to see how many voters keep the Ducks on ballots — especially given that ranked teams went 22-3 in Week 2.
• Oregon rival Washington could be in danger of falling out despite a win. The No. 19 Huskies were unimpressive in the Apple Cup last week and won 16-14 Saturday against Utah State, which opened its season with a loss to FCS team Idaho State.
• On one hand: Boise State was the first team out last week, played well in a close loss to preseason No. 2 Oregon and followed with an impressive 38-20 win over Memphis, positioning itself as a top Group of 6 Playoff contender and a possible Top 25 team. On the other hand … Oregon just lost to Oklahoma State and could fall out.
• Mississippi State went 5-8 last year and received zero votes last week, but the Bulldogs will find their way onto ballots after smoking Minnesota 38-13 on the road behind an attention-grabbing performance from breakout star quarterback Kamario Taylor. Enough to crack the Top 25? Probably not. But expect Mississippi State to be a big riser into the “others receiving votes” category.
Next week
There should be three matchups between ranked teams, with two undercards and one clear main event:
• No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech. A Friday night Big 12 showdown after the Red Raiders survived an upset bid from Oregon State.
• No. 17 SMU at No. 24 Louisville. Whoever wins will be deemed the top challenger to Miami in the ACC.
• No. 8 LSU at No. 9 Ole Miss. You may have heard something about Lane Kiffin returning to Oxford.
This story will be updated Sunday afternoon with the reveal of the post-Week 2 AP poll.