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The 12-5 upset is one of the most popular March Madness picks each year — and for good reason. It’s happened quite a few times since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. In 2026, High Point stunned Wisconsin.
Here’s everything you need to know about 12 seeds vs. 5 seeds in March Madness.
History of 12 vs. 5 seeds in March Madness
There have been 58 upsets by No. 12 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. The lower seed was 58-106, equating to a 35.37 win percentage.
Here are all of the times a 12 seed has knocked off a 5 seed.
These are the times a 12 seed beat a 5 seed in March Madness:
Year
Result
Score
2026
High Point def. Wisconsin
83-82
2025
McNeese def. Clemson
69-67
2025
Colorado State def. Memphis
78-70
2024
Grand Canyon def. Saint Mary’s
75-66
2024
James Madison def. Wisconsin
72-61
2022
New Mexico State def. UConn
70-63
2022
Richmond def. Iowa
67-63
2021
Oregon State def. Tennessee
70-56
2019
Oregon def. Wisconsin
72-54
2019
Murray State def. Marquette
83-64
2019
Liberty def. Mississippi State
80-76
2017
Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota
81-72
2016
Yale def. Baylor
79-75
2016
Little Rock def. Purdue
85-83 (2OT)
2014
Stephen F. Austin def. VCU
77-75 (OT)
2014
North Dakota State def. Oklahoma
80-75 (OT)
2014
Harvard def. Cincinnati
61-57
2013
Oregon def. Oklahoma State
68-55
2013
California def. UNLV
64-61
2013
Ole Miss def. Wisconsin
57-46
2012
VCU def. Wichita State
62-59
2012
South Florida def. Temple
58-44
2011
Richmond def. Vanderbilt
69-66
2010
Cornell def. Temple
78-65
2009
Western Kentucky def. Illinois
76-72
2009
Arizona def. Utah
84-71
2009
Wisconsin def. Florida State
61-59 (OT)
2008
Western Kentucky def. Drake
101-99 (OT)
2008
Villanova def. Clemson
75-69
2006
Texas A&M def. Syracuse
66-58
2006
Montana def. Nevada
87-79
2005
Milwaukee def. Alabama
83-73
2004
Pacific def. Providence
66-58
2004
Manhattan def. Florida
75-60
2003
Butler def. Mississippi State
47-46
2002
Creighton def. Florida
83-82 (2OT)
2002
Missouri def. Miami (Fla.)
93-80
2002
Tulsa def. Marquette
71-69
2001
Gonzaga def. Virginia
86-85
2001
Utah State def. Ohio State
77-68 (OT)
1999
Missouri State def. TCU
96-87
1999
Detroit def. UCLA
56-53
1998
Florida State def. TCU
96-87
1997
College of Charleston def. Maryland
75-66
1996
Arkansas def. Penn State
86-80
1996
Drexel def. Memphis
75-63
1995
Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona
71-62
1994
Tulsa def. UCLA
112-102
1994
UW-Green Bay def. California
61-57
1993
George Washington def. New Mexico
82-68
1992
New Mexico State def. DePaul
81-73
1991
Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State
76-56
1990
Ball State def. Oregon State
54-53
1990
Dayton def. Illinois
88-86
1989
DePaul def. Memphis State
66-63
1987
Wyoming def. Virginia
64-60
1986
DePaul def. Virginia
72-68
1985
Kentucky def. Washington
66-58
Some more tidbits:
In 34 of the last 40 tournaments, the 12 seed has won at least one first round game. The only exceptions came in 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018 and 2023.
In 2019, three No. 12 seeds advanced to the second round: Murray State (beat Marquette), Oregon (beat Wisconsin) and Liberty (beat Mississippi State). The 12 seeds also won three games in 2013 and 2014.
Utah State, who has been the No. 12 seed a record five times, is only 1-4 against No. 5 seeds. Its lone win came in 2001 against Ohio State.
How much more likely is a 12-5 upset than a 13-4 upset?
Thirty-three No. 13 seeds have upset No. 4 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, giving them a 33-127 record all-time.
Here are all of the times a 13 seed has upset a 4.
13 seed upsets over 4 seeds
Year
Result
Score
2024
Yale def. Auburn
78-76
2023
Furman def. Virginia
68-67
2021
Ohio def. Virginia
62-58
2021
North Texas def. Purdue
78-69 (OT)
2019
UC Irvine def. Kansas State
70-64
2018
Marshall def. Wichita State
81-75
2018
Buffalo def. Arizona
89-69
2016
Hawaii def. California
77-66
2013
La Salle def. Kansas State
63-61
2012
Ohio def. Michigan
65-60
2011
Morehead State def. Louisville
62-61
2010
Murray State def. Vanderbilt
66-65
2009
Cleveland State def. Wake Forest
84-69
2008
San Diego def. UConn
70-69
2008
Siena def. Vanderbilt
83-62
2006
Bradley def. Kansas
77-73
2005
Vermont def. Syracuse
60-57
2003
Tulsa def. Dayton
84-71
2002
UNC Wilmington def. USC
93-89
2001
Kent State def. Indiana
77-73
2001
Indiana State def. Oklahoma
70-68
1999
Oklahoma def. Arizona
61-60
1998
Valparaiso def. Ole Miss
70-69
1996
Princeton def. UCLA
43-41
1995
Manhattan def. Oklahoma
77-67
1993
Southern def. Georgia Tech
93-78
1992
Southwestern Louisiana def. Oklahoma
87-83
1991
Penn State def. UCLA
74-69
1989
Middle Tennessee def. Florida State
97-83
1988
Richmond def. Indiana
72-69
1987
Xavier def. Missouri
70-69
1987
Missouri State def. Clemson
65-60
1985
Navy def. LSU
78-55
Recent highlights of 12-5 upsets
Here are some highlights from the 12-5 upsets that have happened lately.
High Point edged Wisconsin in 2026.
McNeese took down Clemson in 2025.
Clemson Tigers vs. McNeese State Cowboys: Game Highlights
Grand Canyon defeated Saint Mary’s in 2024.
Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s – NCAA tournament highlights
Richmond beat Iowa in 2022:
Richmond upsets Iowa and advances in NCAA tournament
New Mexico State defeated UConn in 2022:
Oregon State topped Tennessee by 14 points in 2021:
Tennessee vs. Oregon State: Extended highlights from 2021 NCAA tournament
Murray State’s Ja Morant joined exclusive company in 2019, posting the ninth triple-double in NCAA tournament history as the No. 12 Racers took down No. 5 Marquette, 83-64.
Ja Morant leads Murray State to dominating win over Marquette
Liberty, fresh off an ASUN championship, edged Mississippi State in another 2019 12-5 game.
Liberty upsets Mississippi State 80-76
Oregon also won big in the opening round of 2019, dismantling Wisconsin 72-54 before reaching the Sweet 16.
Oregon comes up with huge Wisconsin upset
Little Rock shocked Purdue in 2016, eking out a 79-75 win.
First Round: Arkansas-Little Rock upsets Purdue
Joe Boozell has been a college basketball writer for NCAA.com since 2015. His work has also appeared in Bleacher Report, FOXSports.com and NBA.com. Joe’s claim to fame since joining NCAA.com: he’s predicted the correct national championship game twice… and picked the wrong winner both times. Growing up, Joe squared off against both Anthony Davis and Frank Kaminsky in the Chicagoland basketball scene. You can imagine how that went.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions.
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