The Nuggets are fresh off their most uncomfortable offseason in recent memory, and apparently, it’s only going to get worse from here.
That’s ESPN’s conclusion, anyway. The Worldwide Leader in Sports released a “future power ranking” of the NBA this week, grading every team’s three-year outlook based on a variety of factors: current players, management, money, market and draft capital. Who’s best equipped to contend for championships in 2026-27, 2027-28 and 2028-29?
It’s an especially relevant topic in the aftermath of commissioner Adam Silver’s quasi-death penalty issued to the Clippers for circumventing the salary cap. Their path to the NBA Finals — much less the playoffs — appears nonexistent for at least half a decade after they were stripped of five first-round draft picks. (Somehow, they didn’t even come in last place on ESPN’s list. Pour one out for the Sacramento Kings fan in your life.)
Eight different teams have won the last eight championships, a stat that grows more anomalous every year. Fittingly, only three of those teams made the top 10 in the future power rankings. The era of parity will forge ahead, according to ESPN, and the Nuggets won’t be part of it. Their rank? No. 18.
It warrants unpacking.
Here’s how Denver ranked in each category.
Players: 7th
Market: 18th
Management: 24th
Draft: 24th
Money: 30th
The Nuggets have the lowest overall ranking among the 14 teams deemed to have the best current rosters. Closest to them is Minnesota (16th overall), which was ranked ninth in “players” but 26th in money and dead last in draft capital.
Money essentially refers to salary cap flexibility for the purposes of this list. Is your team stuck overpaying players for the next three years? Or does it benefit from team-friendly contracts and/or cap space that can be used to make aggressive moves?
On a one-year timeline, Denver obviously belongs in last place. It has the most expensive payroll in the league, and the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement punishes teams for that. The Nuggets are still over the second tax apron, even after trading away Peyton Watson without receiving a player in return. Their ability to negotiate trades was already compromised by rival front offices trying to leverage their predicament, as The Denver Post reported. If they can’t get out of the apron by February’s trade deadline, their 2034 first-round pick would become frozen, compounding their lack of trade flexibility.
It’s inarguably a rocky situation.
But it doesn’t have to be insurmountable. The Nuggets can begin to whittle away at their cap crunch next summer, when they’re projected to have space below the luxury tax if they let Cam Johnson, Julian Strawther and DaRon Holmes II become free agents. Then in 2028, they’ll be free of Zeke Nnaji’s four-year, $32 million albatross, if they haven’t found a way to trade him by then.
They’ll still have Nikola Jokic (assuming he signs that extension), Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun filling their payroll up to the salary cap for the remainder of ESPN’s three-year window. Those four salary commitments might be enough to cement Denver in 30th place, depending on your confidence in the durability and chemistry of those players. (They have an astonishing 15.2 net rating in 1,115 career minutes together, according to PBP Stats, hence the current roster being ranked seventh.) If the quartet crashes and burns this season, then Denver will be truly stuck.
Julius Randle (30) of the Minnesota Timberwolves defends Jamal Murray (27) of the Denver Nuggets during the third quarter at Ball Arena in Denver on Monday, April 20, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
More likely, it’ll continue to play high-quality team basketball. That alone should offer a glimpse of flexibility on the horizon. As Murray and Gordon inch closer to the end of their contracts, and as more money slowly opens up around them, the Nuggets could have more opportunities to make a large-scale change via trade. Especially if co-general managers Ben Tenzer and Jon Wallace keep finding creative ways to replenish their draft stash, which might’ve ranked 30th on ESPN’s list in June. Now, it’s up to 24th.
Wallace and Tenzer also rank 24th in their own category. ESPN clearly lacks confidence in Denver’s management structure, which is one year into its regime. The scrutiny is fair, simply on the basis of inexperience. This is a front office that’s still trying to prove itself, not to mention a first-time head coach in David Adelman.
However, it’s also fair to argue that management is one of the least important of the five categories, raising the question of how much each factor should be weighted. ESPN determined that “a team’s current roster and the future potential of those players” accounts for 60% of its grade in the power ranking. Money, management and draft assets each count for 11.7%. Finally, market (“the reputation of the city and franchise”) counts for 5%.
It seems reasonable enough. But then how can the team ranked No. 7 in the most important category fall to No. 18 in overall three-year outlook?
Other high-ranking rosters scored similarly to Denver in some of the less important categories. Oklahoma City was deemed second-worst in “money” — the Thunder salary-dumped three players this offseason to avoid the second apron, and they’re projected to be over the apron again next summer when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s extension takes effect. There could be a difficult decision between Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams looming in OKC. But the NBA’s top-ranked management group and Sam Presti’s stockpile of draft picks were enough to overcome that. The Thunder came in at first overall on ESPN’s list, understandably.
New York’s No. 5 placement is more questionable in a Nuggets context. The Knicks’ best category (third in roster) was the same as Denver’s. Their two worst categories (23rd in draft, 27th in money) were also the same as Denver’s. New York placed higher than the Nuggets in all three of those categories, but by margins of no more than four spots. You’d think that would result in the Knicks finishing a four or five spots above Denver in the composite ranking. Instead, the defending champs being No. 2 in market and No. 4 in management appears to account for most of the difference between fifth and 18th overall.
Other teams that have a better three-year outlook than Denver, according to ESPN: the Spurs, Celtics, Rockets, Pistons, Hornets, 76ers, Hawks, Cavaliers, Raptors, Pacers, Lakers, Heat, Jazz and Mavericks.
Nobody ever wants to be 11 spots behind Charlotte in line.
Obviously, the whole undertaking was arbitrary and a little silly, as is any power ranking. It’s equally silly to dissect someone else’s power ranking this deeply. But the concept is undeniably fascinating, and the results shouldn’t be completely ignored.
The truth about the Nuggets’ future probably lies somewhere between ESPN’s bleak findings and, for example, Calvin Booth’s 2023 proclamation that “we should win three or four” championships.
Winning a second title with Jokic seems more difficult right now than it ever has. Other contenders are clearly better positioned than Denver to keep adapting to the league around them. The Nuggets might have to dig themselves out of a deep hole over the next couple of years.
They also have the only player this century to finish top-two in MVP voting for six consecutive years. As long as Jokic plans to sign that next contract and stick around in Denver, his floor is probably a little higher than 18th.
Want more Nuggets news? Sign up for the Nuggets Insider to get all our NBA analysis.