Thursday Night Football in Week 3 of the NFL season features an interesting NFC clash between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers, and oddsmakers have shifted the line quite a bit.

Michael Penix Jr. is set to make his return from a torn ACL for the Falcons, giving the team a much-needed boost at the quarterback spot. Penix and Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) missed the first two weeks of the 2026 season, forcing Atlanta to start veteran Cooper Rush — and play rookie Jack Strand a bit in Week 2.

The results were absolutely awful, as Rush was picked four times in two weeks and Strand turned it over twice in his Week 2 appearance. The Falcons are currently dead last in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense, so Penix’s return should be an upgrade to the team as a whole.

The betting market certainly views it that way, as the Falcons have shifted to 5.5-point underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook. Earlier in the week, Atlanta opened as a seven-point underdog with the quarterback situation still up in the air.

The initial shift when Penix was announced as the starter moved the line down to Falcons +6, but more steam is coming in on Atlanta despite bettors largely taking the Packers. According to DraftKings, only 22 percent of the handle and 20 percent of the spread bets for Thursday’s matchup are on the Falcons.

So, the line movement for this game seems to be driven by Penix’s return and the fact that Green Bay has yet to cover the spread in 2026. The Packers needed overtime in Week 2 to beat the New York Jets and avoid an 0-2 start.

Last season, Penix started nine games for Atlanta, going 3-6 in those matchups. He completed 60.1 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards, nine scores and three picks. It is possible that Penix is the best quarterback the Falcons have, and it’s currently unclear when Tagovailoa would even be healthy enough to back him up.

The SI Betting team will continue to update readers with the latest odds for Thursday’s Week 3 opener, especially if they move again befre kickoff.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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