The allure of the dynasty is stronger than ever, and the label is now tantalizingly close for the Las Vegas Aces.
Nine wins separate the Aces from basketball immortality, the only goal remaining being to secure their fourth championship in five years. Little needs to be said about the battle-tested nature of this core, nor can much be said without sounding redundant. No matter where they are in the seeding or the trials and tribulations of the regular season, the Aces have always found resilience and boast the capability of making a deep run.
However, with the yin must always come the yang and, in the case of the Aces, there are at least some reasons to put the brakes on the optimism.
So, instead of arguing whether the glass is half-empty or half-full, let us put everything on the table. There are points that suggest the Aces can reach the summit once again, but also reasons that suggest a bitter end. By pointing all of these variables out, the path to contention is laid out, and the obstacles in said path are clearly defined.
With that in mind, let’s state our cases.
The argument for the Aces begins with A’ja Wilson, and that alone could be enough to make it convincing.
Wilson has once again dominated the WNBA, leading the league with 26.2 points and 1.9 blocks per game and finishing fifth with 9.4 rebounds per game. Sweeping every Western Conference Player of the Month award, Wilson has been the runaway favorite for her unprecedented fifth MVP award, a number that would place her in rarified air in the sports world.
Joining Wilson throughout this run have been Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, a pair of backcourt maestros who find ways to impact the game beyond just piling on points. In Young and Gray, the Aces are the only team in the WNBA with two players in the top ten assist totals; Young placed in fourth with 6.8 helpers per game, while Gray’s 6.7 is good for fifth. Having both players willing to share the ball gives head coach Becky Hammon some versatility in offensive sets, ensuring that someone can take generalship of the court at any given time.
So long as this core continues dealing the way they have, the championship window for the Aces should remain open.
WON’T: The center rotation
Of course, no one can talk about the Aces without addressing the suspiciously NaLyssa Smith-shaped hole in the lineup.
Smith emerged as a near-perfect complement to Wilson in the frontcourt since arriving midseason last year, and continued to shine in that role until a left leg injury against the Toronto Tempo on Aug. 23 ended her season. Since then, the Aces have signed Kalani Brown for the remainder of the season and, while Brown has done well in a small sample size, the team is still looking at a committee approach to replacing what Smith brings to the lineup. That could pose an issue at this juncture, where teams will pounce on weaknesses and the margin for error only gets smaller.
The Aces can counter this with a functional plan at the five, but what that looks like is still somewhat unclear.
WILL: The bench is clicking
While the core for the Aces will attract the majority of the attention from opposing defenses, the role players have been producing in their own right.
Stephanie Talbot has had her best stretch in Las Vegas over the last few games, providing strong numbers on both ends of the court and scoring a season-high 14 points in the Aces’ last games against the Los Angeles Sparks on Sept. 22 and the Phoenix Mercury on Sept. 24. Jewell Loyd also exploded for 25 points against the Mercury for her best game of the season. The Aces also boast a number of bench options who can explode from former postseason heroine Dana Evans to veteran center Cheyenne Parker-Tyus to midseason addition Mai Yamamoto.
If the Aces can get contributions from two or three of these players on a consistent basis this postseason, that will take plenty of pressure off the stars.
WON’T: Potential for cold spells
The only question to balance out the bench will be if they are adding to the contributions of the core or picking up the slack elsewhere in the lineup.
The Aces currently have Brianna Turner starting at the five in place of Smith and, while Turner was always brought in due to her defensive acumen, but a starter putting up 1.6 points per game is a massive cause for concern. Talbot and Loyd have also endured dry spells offensively throughout the season, and some nights have even seen Young and Gray struggle to get the ball in the basket.
Wilson is going to do her damage regardless of what opponents do, but teams that can put the bulk of the offensive output on her shoulders while neutralizing everyone else gives them a chance to beat the champs.
Sure, the Aces are not riding into the playoffs with a 16-game winning streak in their pockets, but the current run of form is nothing to scoff at.
Heading into the playoffs, the Aces find themselves on a seven-game winning streak. Say what you will about the quality of opposition (Connecticut Sun, Toronto, Seattle Storm, Los Angeles, Phoenix), but it is far better to win the game you are supposed to than have serious questions to answer after a couple of upset losses.
Confidence is paramount to going on a deep run and, right now, the Aces have plenty of belief heading into the postseason.
WON’T: Playoff team struggles
Of course, the pesky caveat of playoff teams has to be discussed to prevent anything from being considered misleading.
The Aces’ combined record against the other seven playoff teams is 11-10, which is not bad in and of itself, and they boast a 3-0 sweep against the second-seeded Golden State Valkyries. Both of those sound good, but the Aces also hold 1-2 records against their first-round opponent in the Indiana Fever, as well as their other potential second-round matchup in the Dallas Wings. Sure, playoffs are a vastly different animal, but a team coming in with at least some idea on how to win is always going to pose a problem, especially when the separation of victory and defeat is so narrow.
Think of this as being similar to last season’s playoffs: the Aces might have momentum to feed off of, but all that matters is how they play the games up ahead.
WILL: Away from some danger…
Looking at the playoff field, the Aces might feel at least somewhat fortunate to have avoided the other side of the bracket.
Along with the Fever and Wings, the Aces have 1-2 records against the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty, and those teams face each other to begin their playoff runs. The other first-round matchup consists of the Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics, both of whom possess suffocating defenses and frontcourt depth that would pose a problem for Las Vegas. So many notable players such as Olivia Miles, Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Angel Reese and Sonia Citron, and the majority of them will be in offseason mode before any of them touch the court at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
As the playoffs go along, the Aces will certainly not feel too sympathetic for their competition dwindling down.
WON’T: …but not all of it.
However, the side of the bracket the Aces do find themselves on offer their own set of unique complications.
Looking at the Fever, the Aces are staring down one of the league’s best offensive threats in Kelsey Mitchell, the WNBA’s premier anti-A’ja defender in Aliyah Boston and a point guard in Caitlin Clark who will serve as an X-factor after missing last year’s playoffs. Should the Aces survive that, the second round is still very much a case of picking your poison. The championship defense would either have to go through one of the league’s most promising young players in Paige Bueckers in Dallas, or a Golden State team with former Aces assistant Natalie Nakase and center Kiah Stokes knowing exactly how Hammon operates in the postseason.
If the Aces do find a way to get back to the Finals, they will have to earn it every step of the way.