We are through five full weeks of college football, and the AP poll has become a controversial topic among fans.
In addition to the usual “who gets in, who’s left out” discourse, there has been a lot of debate about whether there is favoritism or preconceived notions favoring teams from certain conferences. Are mid-level SEC teams more worthy of being ranked than mid-level ACC teams, for example?
This is my first season as an AP voter and I last explained my ballot in the preseason. The nature of Miami’s season and the balloting schedule make it difficult to find time to break down my ballot each week. But with UM on a bye this week, I figured this week was as good as ever to catch people up on my reasoning.
Here is my AP poll ballot after Week 5, with explanations for groups of teams:
1. Texas (4-0)
The Longhorns have done enough to earn the No. 1 spot with quality wins over Ohio State and Tennessee. That does not mean Texas is flawless. The UT defense has carried the team even as the offense ranks 55th nationally. That could leave the Longhorns vulnerable going forward.
2. Miami (5-0)
Yes, I voted the Hurricanes as the No. 2 team in the country. The Hurricanes have the No. 2 offense and No. 1 defense in the nation, dominating four of their five opponents. UM got a primetime spotlight last week and used it to blow out Clemson on the road. Quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Malachi Toney are early season Heisman contenders. UM received two first-place votes, but I wasn’t willing to go that far just yet.
3. Georgia (5-0)
4. Ohio State (4-1)
5. Notre Dame (5-0)
6. Alabama (5-0)
7. Indiana (5-0)
I consider the above group of five teams and the Hurricanes to be peers. You can make compelling arguments to rank them in just about any order.
Georgia arguably looks like the most complete team in the nation. The Bulldogs have the No. 1 offense and No. 12 defense nationally. Their schedule hasn’t been the most difficult — yet — but that will change this week with a road trip to Alabama. Ohio State coughed up its lead to Texas in its biggest game so far, but the Buckeyes have crushed just about everyone else. They picked up a good win over Iowa on the road.
Notre Dame got a bit of a scare against UNC on Saturday, but otherwise, the Fighting Irish have handled their business. ESPN’s SP+ has Notre Dame fourth overall with the No. 5 offense and No. 7 defense. Its first big test is at BYU in two weeks.
Indiana is a little curious this year. The Hoosiers blew out their first three opponents, as expected, but they were in an unexpected dog fight with Northwestern (Indiana won by six). That looks better now than it did a week ago (we’ll get to Northwestern later), and Indiana cruised to a win over Rutgers this week.
8. Ole Miss
9. LSU
The second tier of SEC teams starts with Ole Miss and LSU. These two teams battled it out in Oxford, Mississippi, and the Rebels came out ahead. Ole Miss followed that up by laying an egg against Florida. I had Ole Miss second on my ballot after beating LSU, then dropped the Rebels seven spots after their loss to UF. They were off this week.
LSU wrecked Texas A&M after losing to Ole Miss and cruised to a win over FCS McNeese State.
10. Texas Tech (5-0)
11. BYU (4-0)
12. Utah (4-0)
Enter the Big 12. I don’t think much separates these three teams yet. Texas Tech was in a close game against a bad Colorado team before pulling away late. BYU played an ugly game against a struggling TCU but got the win. Utah was off.
The Utes have the best stats of the three, but have also played the easiest schedule. There is no clear separation between them yet.
13. Oklahoma State (3-1)
14. Oregon (3-1)
15. Tennessee (4-1)
Welcome to the one-loss club.
After a shocking loss to Tulsa to start the year, the Cowboys upset Oregon and picked up a solid win over conference rival West Virginia. Oregon looked shaky in its season-opening win over Boise State and then lost to Oklahoma State. But the Ducks bounced back and beat USC even though star quarterback Dante Moore left the game with a concussion. Tennessee bounced back from a loss to Texas with a win over Auburn.
OSU entered my rankings after their win over Oregon and has risen when other teams around them lost. I’m not sure what the Cowboys’ ceiling is this year, but they’ve played well after the season-opening shocker. Similarly, the Ducks, who I had as my preseason No. 1, have performed well since losing to the Cowboys. Former Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola takes over for Moore; he did great against USC. Oregon has a huge test against UCLA this week to see if they can keep their good form going.
Tennessee has a top-20 defense and got a victory on Saturday, but its early-season win over Georgia Tech has lost some luster. And it seems like the Vols might have some offensive issues; coach Josh Heupel benched five-star freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon and turned to George MacIntyre, who lost the position battle in camp. We’ll see how Tennessee does from here.
16. Missouri (4-1)
17. Florida (4-1)
18. Boise State (4-1)
19. Wake Forest (4-1)
20. Mississippi State (4-1)
Here is the polling danger zone. Missouri drew a ton of attention last week for clinging to the No. 25 spot in the poll after losing to Mississippi State. But Saturday’s results threw the poll on its head. Missouri blew the doors off of visiting Florida, which was coming off a statement win against Ole Miss. The Bulldogs, in turn, suffered a blowout home loss at the hands of Alabama.
I had Florida at No. 8 last week and Mississippi State 15th. I had Missouri unranked.
So what do I do with these teams?
I value head-to-head results. They are crucially important. Missouri was a fringe top-25 team that had a huge win over a team I had in the top 10, and I feel compelled to move the Tigers up substantially. But if the Bulldogs must be ahead of them because of the head-to-head result, then I would end up not moving Mississippi State down much, if at all, despite its own crushing defeat. And where does Florida fit into all this? The Gators were the talk of the nation after a huge win, and that Ole Miss victory is still a big data point. Florida should probably drop severely after a blowout loss, but should the Gators pull Ole Miss down with them, even though the Rebels didn’t play this week?
Ultimately, I decided to go with how I feel about these teams at this moment. They are all in the same range. Mizzou gets buoyed up by its big win, pushing it ahead of Florida (which I dropped eight spots after losing by four touchdowns) and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs drop five spots after losing by 33 to one of the top teams in the country. All three teams are solid and will have chances to prove themselves and move up as the season goes on.
Boise State has been chugging along since falling to Oregon in Week 1. The Broncos are potentially the best Group of 6 team (tops in FPI and Sagarin rankings, fourth in SP+), but that could change.
I have Wake Forest in my rankings at 19, which is one of the higher spots among AP voters. Although Miami beat Wake Forest by 13 points, I came away impressed with the home team. The Demon Deacons have done the best job at containing UM. Then Wake Forest beat Louisville, which was ranked 16th at the time. That win has lost its prestige after the Cardinals fell to N.C. State on Saturday.
Overall, I think the Demon Deacons are a solid team, and they are probably being shortchanged by being left out of the poll.
21. UCLA (4-0)
22. Iowa (4-1)
23. Pittsburgh (5-0)
24. Northwestern (3-1)
25. Nebraska (5-0)
I put the Bruins on my ballot for the first time last week after they crushed Maryland. First-year coach Bob Chesney is looking to follow Curt Cignetti, his predecessor at James Madison, and rebuild a team instantly. So far, so good.
Iowa got Jeremiah Smith’d on Saturday, as the Ohio State superstar put up 206 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Buckeyes’ win over the Hawkeyes. There’s no shame in that. Iowa had slowly moved up my ballot as it kept winning and others lost, but I don’t think the Hawkeyes are an elite team. Their best win to this point is either a last-second victory over a mediocre Michigan or a close win over an average Iowa State.
Pitt enters my Top 25 and AP’s after moving to 5-0 with a road win against Virginia Tech. The Panthers may be in some trouble, as starting quarterback Mason Heintschel is out for the year with a torn ACL. But backup Holden Geriner did enough to beat the Hokies. The Panthers have UNC and Miami coming up this month, so they will be tested.
Northwestern also appears on my ballot for the first time this season. The Wildcats first piqued my interest after their close loss to Indiana, and they seized my attention with a dominant victory over Penn State. I have not been high on the Nittany Lions this season (I ranked them as high as No. 20 but dropped them after they lost to Wisconsin), but Northwestern wiped the floor with them. The Wildcats rushed for 413 yards as they won by three scores.
My ballot concludes with Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are 5-0 after beating Maryland (despite an early scare from the struggling Terrapins). Nebraska has not played a strong schedule so far, so its mettle will be tested.
Teams I dropped out: USC, Kentucky, Houston, Louisville
Louisville was the easiest team to drop this week. I kept it in last week despite their loss to Wake Forest, giving more credit to the Demon Deacons instead of discrediting the Cardinals. Louisville responded by falling to a scuffling N.C. State, which was Louisville’s third loss of the season.
Kentucky, USC and Houston were hard calls. I’m reluctant to move teams down after a win. Kentucky’s best win, a road victory over Texas A&M, looks worse now as the Aggies have struggled. This week, the Wildcats needed a comeback to force overtime and beat South Carolina, one of the worst teams in the conference. Comebacks are good, but it’s not great to need a double-digit comeback and overtime to beat a mediocre team.
USC was a tough call, too. The Trojans held on to beat Washington, 25-21. But I do not think highly of Washington, which has struggled against Group of 6 teams like Washington State and Utah State. The Trojans also have a one-score win over Rutgers on their resume, which looks rough. Rutgers might be the worst Power 4 team in the nation. I don’t feel confident in USC right now.
I had kept Houston at No. 25 the last two weeks because I think the Cougars are a solid team. But they struggled early with UCF and were trailing by double digits well into the third quarter. UCF has not been great this year. As with Kentucky, what do you end up valuing more: the impressive comeback or the fact that a comeback was needed at all?
Teams I also considered: Duke, Baylor, SMU, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Dakota State, James Madison
Some of these teams I need to see more from. Duke is undefeated, but its best win so far is against a mediocre Illinois team that just lost to Purdue by a touchdown. The Blue Devils will get bigger tests later this season.
Baylor is intriguing; the Bears are one two-point conversion away from being undefeated. But their loss was to an average Auburn team, and their most impressive win was this week’s blowout over an average Arizona State.
SMU has won two games since losing to Louisville, but its wins were over Missouri State and Boston College, and the games were not particularly impressive.
Arizona has come on strong since losing to BYU on Sept. 12. The Wildcats blew out previously undefeated Cincinnati. They’re a team to keep an eye on.
Wisconsin looks improved under Luke Fickell, who entered the season on the hot seat. The Badgers beat Penn State and Michigan State the last two weeks, but Notre Dame blew them out in their one game against currently ranked teams.
James Madison and North Dakota State are really interesting G6 teams. Both are 5-0 while feasting on low-end Group of 6 teams. But they have dominated those teams like good teams should.