The San Diego Padres season ended on October 7, 2026. The work to make it further next year started on October 8, and oh is there a lot of work to do.

We’re going to go about this exercise understanding the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1 at 9:00 p.m. in San Diego and there very likely will be a lockout that carries into the 2027 season, perhaps even delaying the start of Spring Training and losing some regular season games. That’s a conversation for another day.

For now, we will solely focus on the question marks facing the Padres as they try to put together a team competitive enough to make it to the playoffs for the fourth straight season because it could look radically different from this year’s edition. Might as well just rip the band aid off and look at the players who could be gone, starting with the ones who will not have a contract of any kind the day after the World Series ends.

Unrestricted Free Agents

LHP Adrian Morejon
LHP Robbie Ray
RHP Walker Buehler
RHP Jason Adam
RHP Casey Mize
1B Ty France
OF Ramon Laureano
OF Austin Hays

So, that’s not great. Morejon is the hardest throwing left-handed reliever in the game. Signing with the club as a 16-year-old, he literally grew up in the organization and has talked openly about his desire to stay in San Diego. Entering his age-28 season he will be the most sought-after reliever on the open market and demand a hefty payday.

France was a revelation and undoubtedly the comeback player of the year. He didn’t have any big league offers last offseason, at one point contemplated retirement, and signed a minor league deal with the Padres during Spring Training. Then he turned into the team’s most consistent hitter and MVP while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense. France is an Aztec and while he’s worth a whole lot more than the $1.5 million he made this year, there’s enough mutual interest to keep him around long-term.

San Diego will try to work out deals with the other starting pitchers … Ray, Buehler, and Mize … because they each added value to the playoff run and fit in well with the clubhouse dynamic. Plus, at the moment the Padres literally have no other options (more on that in a minute).

Mutual Options

RHP Lucas Giolito ($8 million)
RHP Griffin Canning ($5 million)
IF/OF Miguel Andujar ($8 million)

Mutual options are almost never picked up so expect all three of these veterans to reach free agency as well. I could see a reunion with Giolito and Andujar in the cards if they’re both willing to take smaller deals to try and prove they’re healthy after losing much of their seasons to injury.

Club Options

RHP Nick Pivetta ($14 million)
LHP Kyle Hart ($2.5 million)

Pivetta is an interesting case. He originally had a player option but missed enough time with an injury that it changed to a club option. He came back healthy in September and looked like himself again so if the Friars think he’s avoided a major health setback it’s a pretty easy call to bring him back at that number.

Player Options

LHP Wandy Peralta ($4.5 million)

Odds are nobody would be sad to see Peralta decline the option and hit free agency. He struggled mightily down the stretch and was left off the postseason roster.

Opt-Outs

RHP Michael King ($28 million)
LHP Yuki Matsui ($6.5 million)

Here’s where the real fear lives. Matsui has turned into a reliable left-handed reliever and it’s a 50-50 shot that he opts out.

King, however, is another story. Tarik Skubal will be the unquestioned big fish of the free agent starting pitching pool. If he hit the open market, given the remainder of the available options, King would be right behind him. While his overall numbers were very good but not overwhelming, “Playoff Michael King” showed up and probably shot his value way, way up. King threw 7.0 innings of one-hit ball against the high-powered Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round then put the Padres in position to win Game 2 of the NLDS and, after one day of rest, tossed the final two innings of their Game 3 win over the Brewers.

King would be due $28 million in 2027 and another $30 million in 2028. If he thinks he can get more than $58 million over the next two years (he can) it’s a good bet he’ll take the $5 million buyout and hit the open market. If that happens it would leave the Padres with the following starting pitchers under contract for 2027:

Joe Musgrove
Yu Darvish
Randy Vasquez

Musgrove might not be a starter anymore and Darvish may never pitch in the big leagues again. That’s not a great position for a team with World Series aspirations to be in. The good news is, aside from France the bulk of the offense that was one of baseball’s in the second half of the season remains intact.

It’s not wishful thinking to expect Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill to not wait until after the All-Star break to start putting up massive numbers again. Having Gavin Sheets healthy for a full season, the 30 home run consistency of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts building on the swing tweaks he made in a successful September, not losing Jake Cronenworth for a couple of months to a concussion, and the arrival of catcher Ethan Salas (who will amazingly retain his rookie status and is likely to be the overwhelming Rookie of the Year favorite) with Luis Campusano and Freddy Fermin still in the mix is a nice foundation to build on. They’ll need to address left field, a real DH, and bench depth but if France comes back the lineup will be in good shape.

Further complicating the matter of roster construction is the looming lockout. The season ends in early November. A lockout would begin in early December. That leaves a month of teams and players negotiating without fully understanding the financial rules with which they’re playing so we’ll either see a flurry of moves to get things in the books before a new CBA is hammered out or next to nothing as the game waits to figure out how to proceed. Either way, the big question for the Padres does not change:

How will the new owners handle this?

Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones have said all the right things since taking over. They’ve pledged to spend money where it makes sense to build a perennial World Series contender in San Diego. This will be their first opportunity to back it up.

The Padres proved in 2026 their championship window is still very much open. The ownership has a chance to make it a whole lot wider.