Are some contenders rounding into form with a quarter of the NFL season officially behind us?
That seemed to be the case on Sunday in Week 5 of the 2026 season, though a lot more will be decided on monday.
A lot of the movement at the top of the Super Bowl odds board in Week 5 will come down to the Monday night matchup between two of the top teams in the Super Bowl odds — the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills. What a way to end the week!
For now, I’ve set my rankings through Sunday’s action, with the San Francisco 49ers remaining in the top spot after a massive win over the Seattle Seahawks.
Each week this season, I’ll be power ranking each team based on their odds to win the Super Bowl. So, teams that are near the top of the odds — and have value — may be ranked ahead of a team with shorter odds that I’m not as high on. Still, I’ll be using the odds as a guide to help fans and bettors understand how each of these teams is valued in the betting market.
Teams like the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars helped solidify their positions as playoff contenders while a few teams (several in the NFC East) took a big step back.
The top five of these rankings has not changed after Sunday’s action, but there is a lot of movement elsewhere as the playoff picture in both conference– and some division races — starts to take shape.
NFL Power Rankings Based on 2026 Super Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. San Francisco 49ers (+800) Last Week: No. 1
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The 49ers are off to a 5-0 start, and they picked up their third division win of the season on the road against Seattle.
This is a massive win for tiebreaker purposes, and it vaulted the 49ers into the No. 2 spot in the odds to win the Super Bowl. This offense is the best in the league through five weeks, and it has home games against both Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams left on the schedule where it can really lock up the top spot in the division, and potentially the NFC.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (+900) LW: No. 2
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Chiefs (4-0) remain in the No. 2 spot through their bye week, as they extended their lead in the AFC West with Las Vegas’ loss.
Kansas City remains in the top-five in the league in the latest Super Bowl odds.
3. Seattle Seahawks (+950) LW: No. 3
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
I’m not willing to drop the defending champs just yet, especially since they beat themselves in Week 5, turning the ball over several times against San Francisco.
It’s going to be an uphill battle to win the NFC West, but I believe all three teams (San Fran, Seattle and Los Angeles) are rightfully in the top six in the odds to win the Super Bowl.
4. Buffalo Bills (+850) LW: No. 4
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Buffalo remains in the No. 4 spot heading into a massive Monday Night Football matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Josh Allen and Co. are No. 2 in the odds to win the Super Bowl.
5. Los Angeles Rams (+650) LW: No. 5
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Rams have a chance to make a statement win at home on Monday night against Buffalo.
Los Angeles is still the favorite to win the Super Bowl despite being 2-2.
6. Baltimore Ravens (+800) LW: No. 6
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
No Lamar Jackson? No problem.
Tyler Huntley led the Ravens back from a 23-15 deficit with a late touchdown (and two-point conversion) in regulation and then another score in OT to move them to 4-1 this season.
It’s a huge win for the Ravens without Jackson, as they are in sole possession of first place in the AFC North and may get the two-time MVP back in Week 6.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1300) LW: No. 7
Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Cam Little. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Jacksonville pulled off a shocking win over the Eagles in London, with Cam Little hitting a game-winning field goal as time expired.
The Jaguars may be the best team in the AFC, as they’re now 4-1 and in the driver’s seat to win the AFC South with a two-game lead. That’s dropped the Jags from +1500 to +1300 to win the Super Bowl, and they still remain a pretty solid value ahead of Week 6.
A huge rivalry matchup with Houston awaits.
8. New England Patriots (+2000) LW: No. 12
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Patriots are BACK.
Drake Maye combined for five touchdowns in a blowout win over Las Vegas, bumping the team up to +2000 to win the Super Bowl.
Since the Patriots have a win over Buffalo this season, they’re suddenly in play to win the AFC East and certainly in the mix for a playoff spot in the AFC.
9. Minnesota Vikings (+2200) LW: No. 9
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray (1) and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Minnesota defense (No. 1 in EPA/Play) put on another show in Week 5, shutting down the New Orleans Saints to move to 5-0.
It hasn’t been the prettiest start to a season on offense, but the Vikings are in the driver’s seat to win the NFC North. I don’t love this team at +2200 to win the Super Bowl since the offense has been so shaky, but bettors should be buying the Vikings as a playoff team.
10. Denver Broncos (+2000) LW: No. 9
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Sean Payton’s back to calling plays, but the Denver offense was shaky for the fifth week in a row.
Even with Riley Moss and Pat Surtain II out, Denver’s defense dominated the Los Angeles Chargers down the stretch, pushing the team to 3-2. Denver’s Super Bowl odds didn’t change, and this team doesn’t look like a Super Bowl contender, but it has played an extremely tough schedule and has come out over .500.
Seattle waits on Thursday night in Week 6, which could be a swing game for Denver’s Super Bowl price.
11. Detroit Lions (+2600) LW: No. 13
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Jared Goff and the Lions bounced back in a big way in Week 5, blowing out the Arizona Cardinals with one of their best defensive showings of the season.
Goff had yet another huge day throwing the ball, and he’s a fringe MVP candidate if the Lions can take advantage of an easy schedule and get back in the mix atop the NFC North.
12. Chicago Bears (+1700) LW: No. 8
Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Chicago drops out of the top 10 this week after losing a second division game, this time to Green Bay.
Tyson Bagent was pretty awful in Week 5, and the rumors that Caleb Williams could return in Week 6 are huge for the Bears. I still believe in this Chicago team as a playoff contender, but this price (+1700) is a little steep since tehy’re 0-2 in the NFC North.
If Williams returns in Week 6, Chicago’s stock is going to rise in the futures market.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (+1900) LW: No. 15
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
The Bengals snapped a two-game skid with a commanding offensive performance against Miami, and they’re still clearly in the mix to win a loaded AFC North.
The Cincy defense (three turnovers forced in Week 5) has been much better than previous years, which certainly raises the team’s ceiling as long as Burrow is healthy.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (+9000) LW: No. 22
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Aaron Rodgers has put together some really solid games over the last three weeks, and Pittsburgh is back over .500 in a wide open AFC North with Lamar Jackson banged up.
At +9000 to win the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh is a little undervalued for a team that has a favorable schedule coming up before a Week 9 bye.
15. Green Bay Packers (+4500) LW: No. 23
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Jordan Love played one of his best games of the 2026 season, throwing for 367 yards and two scores in a blowout win over Chicago.
The Packers have not been great to open 2026, yet they’re 3-2 and have a key win over an NFC North rival. At +4500 to win the Super Bowl, Green Bay is a win or two away from jumping up to the 30/1 range.
16. Las Vegas Raiders (+9000) LW: No. 14
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Was Las Vegas’ 3- start a product of a soft schedule?
It’s starting to look like that after back-to-back losses to Kansas City and New England. Sunday’s loss was an absolute blowout, and Fernando Mendoza made his NFL debut late in the game.
If these losses continue, Mendoza may have a chance to make his first start sooner rather than later.
17. Dallas Cowboys (+3000) LW: No. 11
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Dallas blew a golden chance to get over .500, losing at home as a 9.5-point favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who entered the game at 0-4.
Now 2-3, Dallas is still in the mix to win a weak NFC East, but losses like Thursday’s game aren’t great for a team that is looking to win a Super Bowl. Plus, the Cowboys’ defense is one of the five worst in the NFL.
At +3000, Dallas is overpriced in the odds to win the Super Bowl.
18. Carolina Panthers (+7400) LW: No. 20
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Bryce Young and the Panthers went from +9000 to +7400 to win the Super Bowl during their bye week, as they’re 2-2 and in the mix to win the NFC South for the second season in a row.
Their defense needs to show more — even wtih all the injuries — before I really buy this team in the futures market.
19. Cleveland Browns (+25000) LW: No. 17
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Deshaun Watson was just 15-for-33 passing in Week 5 against the Jets, as the Browns fell to 3-2.
It’s been a good start for Cleveland, but it ranks in the bottom half of the league in EPA/Play (27th) on offense and has dropped from +18000 to +25000 to win the Super Bowl.
It’s been pretty clear that Cleveland is a long shot to make the playoffs, with multiple oddsmakers telling Sports Illustrated last week that they expect regression from this team.
20. Atlanta Falcons (+5000) LW: No. 25
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Atlanta was in control against the Ravens on Sunday night, but the defense fell apart down the stretch, allowing a late score in the fourth quarter and a long touchdown drive in overtime.
To make matters worse, Michael Penix Jr. was injured and did not return in OT. That allowed Tua Tagovailoa to throw a game-ending interception.
The Falcons bounced back from an 0-2 start, but they are not nearly as good without Penix, so if he misses any time it’s a major blow to this team’s ceiling. The NFC South is still winnable, even with Atlanta wasting a golden opportunity to beat the Ravens with Jackson out.
21. Houston Texans (+4500) LW: No. 24
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Houston finally picked up a win in Week 5, dominating the Titans in an AFC South battle.
Houston is still priced a little high (+4500) for a team that is 1-4, but a win over Jacksonville in Week 6 would re-open the conversation for the Texans as a playoff team.
The defense looked a lot more like the unit that was No. 1 in the league in 2025 in Week 5.
22. Philadelphia Eagles (+4000) LW: No. 16
Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Eagles have not lost back-to-back games where they had over a 90 percent win probability, falling t0 2-3. With a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, the Eagles suddenly look like a fringe playoff team in the NFC.
The division is wide open, but Philly has dropped from +2000 to +4000 to win the Super Bowl over the last week.
23. New York Giants (+12500) LW: No. 21
New York Giants head coach John Harbaugh. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Giants dodged a bullet — thanks to some horrible Washington clock management — and tied in Week 5 to move to 3-1-1.
The Giants’ Super Bowl odds reflect the fact that Jameis Winston is the quarterback, but everyone in the NFC East is struggling, so maybe this team sneaks into the playoffs. I wouldn’t bet on that happening, as several oddsmakers have told Sports Illustrated that they’re expecting regression from New York this season.
24. Indianapolis Colts (+8000) LW: No. 18
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Indy had a chance to get over .500 in Week 5, but it fell short against the Steelers with the defense (bottom-10 in the league in EPA/Play) struggling again.
I have the Colts this far down since they’re +8000 to win the Super Bowl and simply aren’t good enough on either side of the ball to truly contend.
25. New York Jets (+30000) LW: No. 28
New York Jets running back Braelon Allen. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Jets aren’t dead yet!
New York’s defense came up with eight sacks, and Braelon Allen’s late rushing score was enough to snap a three-game skid. The Jets are still a long shot to make the playoffs, but this team isn’t going to be one of the three worst in the NFL.
Aaron Glenn’s defense — led by rookie David Bailey — has shown some signs of life as of late.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12500) LW: No. 30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Tampa Bay may have saved its season on Thursday night, pulling off an insane upset over the Dallas Cowboys with backup Jalon Daniels at quarterback.
Bucky Irving (two touchdowns) led the way, and the Bucs are now ahead of New Orleans in the odds to win the Super Bowl amongst NFC South teams.
27. Washington Commanders (+10000) LW: No. 25
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Some poor late-game defense and a horrendous managing of the clock in overtime cost the Commanders a win, as they tied the Giants on Sunday.
Brutal.
For a Washington team that didn’t want to drop to 1-4, a 1-3-1 start is killer when the rest of the division failed to win in Week 5. Daniels looked good in Week 5, especially on the ground, but the Commanders are facing an uphill battle to make the postseason.
28. Los Angeles Chargers (+20000) LW: No. 28
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Justin Herbert’s turnovers doomed the Chargers again, as they fell to 0-5 in 2026 with a loss to Denver.
L.A. led 17-10 in the second half, but it wasn’t enough to get a win. The schedule doesn’t lighten up for the Chargers, and they’re an extreme long shot to make the playoffs. They fell from +10000 to +20000 to win the Super Bowl.
29. New Orleans Saints (+15000) LW: No. 19
New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
After an upset win over Baltimore in Week 2, the Saints have lost three games in a row and didn’t look competent on Sunday against Minnesota.
The NFC South is up for grabs, but the Saints have dropped from +8000 to +15000 to win the Super Bowl in the last two weeks. The “worst-to-first” narrative has taken a massive hit.
30. Arizona Cardinals (+50000) LW: No. 29
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Arizona has now lost four games in a row since a Week 1 upset against the Chargers, and it’s only a matter of time before Carson Beck takes over for Jacoby Brissett.
The Cardinals are now third-to-last in the odds to win the Super Bowl this season.
31. Miami Dolphins (+100000) LW: No. 32
Miami Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Miami is off to an 0-5 start after a loss at home to Cincinnati, but it finally scored over 13 points in a game. The Dolphins were expected to be bad this season, so this ranking shouldn’t come as a surprise.
I wouldn’t touch the Dolphins in the futures market with the lack of talent on this roster.
32. Tennessee Titans (+100000) LW: No. 31
Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Could this be rock bottom?
The Titans were absolutely dominated by Houston in Week 5, and they’re now 0-5. Cam Ward doesn’t look anything close to a franchise quarterback, and it’s making it impossible to evaluate a lot of the offense.
Tennessee should be in play for the No. 1 pick, which it could use on another quarterback. There’s no way bettors should take Tennessee in the futures market unless they’re betting an UNDER.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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