Jeff Lebby knows Lane Kiffin better than most. Lebby ran Kiffin’s offense at Ole Miss in 2020 and 2021, and the Rebels’ 2020 attack set an SEC record for total offense in conference play. Kiffin called him “a huge part of our success there” this week. 

Now Mississippi State’s head coach, he leads the Bulldogs into a top-25 showdown with LSU on Saturday.

“I don’t like playing against him because they go so fast,” Kiffin said this week.

LSU (4-2, 1-2 SEC) is reeling after an overtime loss at Kentucky last week, and finds itself in a familiar place under previous coaches: two losses at the midpoint of the season. It wasn’t supposed to start this way for Kiffin, who took over a program with deep pockets and turned the roster over into one of the most talented in the country. A third conference loss in Kiffin’s first season would leave almost no margin for November, with Alabama and Texas still coming to Baton Rouge.

Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1) has already won two SEC games, exceeding the one Lebby collected in his first two seasons combined. Alabama rode into Starkville and won 56-23 two weeks ago, and Kamario Taylor, the sophomore quarterback who spent September in the Heisman Trophy conversation, finished the day on the sideline with a boot on his right foot.

Two weeks later, nobody outside the Bulldogs’ building knows if he will play. Lebby said the SEC availability report would answer that question. 

LSU vs. Mississippi State: Need to know

Kamario Taylor’s right foot: Taylor has thrown for 1,450 yards and an SEC-best 17 touchdowns with four interceptions. He’s thrown three touchdowns in the last five games, the longest stretch since LSU’s Jayden Daniels in 2023. He first hurt his foot in the win over Missouri, and it showed against the Tide. He was sacked five times and finished with minus-26 rushing yards before leaving the game. If he can’t play, Lebby’s options are redshirt freshman Parker Puckett and AJ Swann, who spent a season at LSU. 

Where is Mississippi State’s ground game? Fluff Bothwell has 403 yards and three touchdowns on 74 carries, but he had only one carry against Alabama and spent most of the afternoon with a boot on his left foot. The Bulldogs were outrushed 179-18. Now they get a defense that ranked second nationally against the run through four weeks, allowing 47.5 yards per game. Kentucky found cracks last week. CJ Baxter broke a 77-yard run on the first snap and finished with 123 yards. The Wildcats ran for 155 yards.

The Sam Leavitt Experience: LSU QB Sam Leavitt has thrown for 1,496 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he has thrown an interception in every game this season, totaling eight through six games. No one in the FBS has thrown more interceptions. At Kentucky, he completed 25 of 34 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another in overtime, but he also threw a pick and lost a fumble on a sack in the fourth quarter. 

LSU’s recent success: The Tigers have won the last three meetings against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs last won in Baton Rouge in 2020, when they pulled off a 44-34 upset in Mike Leach’s first season. This is the first meeting since 2023. The teams used to play each other annually, but that ended when the SEC expanded to 16 teams in 2024.

Where to watch LSU vs. Mississippi State live

Date: Saturday, Oct. 17 | Time: Noon ET
Location: Tiger Stadium — Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (try free)

LSU vs. Mississippi State: prediction, picks

LSU is a 14.5-point favorite, and SportsLine gives the Tigers a 76% chance to win, but the total is the more interesting number. 

Strip away overtime, and LSU’s three SEC games have produced 56, 41 and 54 combined points. Not one cleared 58.5. Kiffin’s offense averages 42 points per game, but against SEC defenses LSU has scored 24, 35 and 27 in regulation.

Mississippi State scores 39 points per game, but that production was built on Taylor’s legs and Bothwell’s workload. Both are in question against a front that has been among the nation’s best against the run. Mississippi State’s SEC games have averaged nearly 70 total points, and if Taylor is close to 100%, Lebby’s tempo can drag LSU into a bayou shootout. It’s hard to bet on that version of Taylor showing up two weeks after he left Alabama in a boot. Pick: Under 58.5

SportsLine’s proven computer model has simulated every Week 7 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that’s on a 48-40 run on top-rated CFB picks this season.