A much-tighter Chase. Talladega Superspeedway. New rules. Seven drivers with a legitimate shot at a NASCAR Cup championship.
What could go wrong?
A lot, of course, as is always the case at Talladega, where high speeds and huge drafting packs create unique drama and repeated tense moments from green flag to checkered. The so-called Big One always looms over the landscape, with the possibility of a multi-car accident taking out one or more innocent parties and jumbling the Chase standings in these twilight hours of the season.
This explains, in part, why Talladega’s sweeping grandstands—the front stretch is a mile long—are likely to be heavily populated for Sunday’s YellaWood 500, the last drafting-track race of the season and a potential game-changer in the race for the Cup title.
Some things are predictable every time NASCAR rolls into eastern Alabama for one of the fastest stops on the schedule. Qualifying and racing speeds will be very fast, there will be three- and four-wide competition, and there will be out-of-control parties both in the infield and in the sprawling campgrounds outside the track.
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The Big One at the April race at Talladega.
Less predictable on this visit is the impact of recent rules changes. NASCAR has reduced cars’ rear spoiler from four inches to 3.5 inches, the intent being to make it a bit easier to break up drafting packs. Many in the garage are undecided on the effect of the change but don’t anticipate dramatic differences. A perhaps bigger change is the adjustment in stage ends, from 60, 120, and 188 laps to 98, 143, and 188, with a goal of discouraging drivers making relatively sedate laps while trying to conserve fuel.
Last week’s race at Phoenix recalibrated the top rungs of the Chase. Every Chase driver not named Kyle Larson gained points on the leader (Mr. Larson), and now the Hendrick Motorsports driver has a lead of only five points over second-place Christopher Bell. Following are Chase Briscoe (minus 24), Denny Hamlin (minus 31), Ryan Blaney (minus 40), Joey Logano (minus 44), and Phoenix winner Tyler Reddick (minus 56).
With the right set of circumstances, any of the seven could win the championship with races at Talladega, Martinsville, and Homestead remaining.
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Team Penske drivers Joey Logano (left) and Ryan Blaney.
How do the contenders stand at Talladega? Good, not so good, and quite rotten.
Team Penske drivers Blaney and Logano typically shine there, each with three Talladega victories. Hamlin has won there twice, and Reddick and Briscoe have one win each.
Larson and Bell are winless at Talladega; in fact, Larson has raced 58 times on drafting tracks with no victories. Bell has only one top-five finish in 13 Talladega races, and Larson has only three in 23 races. Larson’s best finish on a drafting track this year is a 16th in the Daytona 500.
Reddick, meanwhile, has an average finish of 5.4 in drafting races this year and won the first two drafting races of the season.
The value of those numbers might mean little in the always-frantic closing miles at Talladega. The pass for the win came on the last lap in 10 of the past 11 drafting-track races, and Talladega, famous for tight finishes, owns five of the closest 10 finishes in the history of timed races.
Mike Hembree has covered auto racing for numerous media outlets, including USA Today, NASCAR Scene, NBC Sports, The Greenville News and the SPEED Channel. He has been roaming garage areas and pit roads for decades (although the persistent rumor that he covered the first Indianapolis 500 is not true). Winner of numerous motorsports and other media awards, he also has covered virtually every other major sport. He lives near Gaffney, South Carolina and can be convinced to attend Bruce Springsteen concerts if you have tickets.