NFL Spread Picks for Week 7: Why We Like the Packers to Cover

In a loaded NFC North, there is zero room for error, heightening the excitement in every divisional matchup. With the Green Bay Packers heading to Detroit, serious playoff and division title implications are on the line, especially with the Minnesota Vikings possessing a commanding lead at the top of the standings.

NFL Spread Picks for Week 7Green Bay Packers (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-115, theScore Bet)

Talk about two teams trending in different directions. While the Green Bay Packers have been able to steadily trickle back up the board in EPA per play, the Detroit Lions have been abysmal on defense, entering Week 7 ranked dead last in EPA allowed per play. Even with Brian Branch set to make his return to the field, Detroit’s secondary is still one of the worst units in the league, fielding a back end that resides in the bottom three in dropback success rate.

While the Packers’ offensive line still has massive red flags lingering over multiple positions, Detroit’s league-average pressure rate will hardly affect the quality of Jordan Love’s throws, making it easier to pick apart the Lions’ gaps in coverage. Josh Jacobs will also help pull defensive attention to the middle, widening Love’s passing lanes on the outside.

To complement the Packers’ resurgence on offense, the defense has quietly been productive, fielding a group that ranks fourth in DVOA. By just slowing Detroit down, the Packers’ defense will give Love the opportunity to set a scoring pace too fast for the Lions to keep up.

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3) (-115, Hard Rock Bet)

At some point, injuries are going to lower the San Francisco 49ers’ ceiling. Even when leading the league in EPA per play, the offense can only do so much while the wide receiver room has been gutted. Not only is Deebo Samuel still out, Mike Evans is also expected to miss some time, leaving the 49ers with just Brandin Cooks, Jordan Watkins, and Jacob Cowing.

While George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are game-wreckers, the 49ers’ lack of production on the outside will allow the Atlanta Falcons to shade to the box to help slow down the duo. By bracketing Kittle with an outside linebacker, the Falcons will force Brock Purdy to look toward his WRs, potentially leading to a turnover-worthy play while forcing the ball into a tight window.

To make matters worse for the 49ers, Bijan Robinson is in a favorable position to hit the ground running by attacking a front seven that struggles to stuff the run at the line of scrimmage, per their bottom-five mark in success rate. If the Falcons spread crosses through the key number of +3, place them in a two-team six-point teaser with the Tennessee Titans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (-3) (-110, FanDuel)

Just when Bryce Young’s seat was starting to warm up, the Carolina Panthers QB put out the flames, leaping into the top half of the board in QB EPA per play and CPOE while averaging 9.4 air yards. Young’s turnaround has helped elevate the Panthers’ offense as a whole, lifting the team up to the top 10 in DVOA.

In a divisional matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Young will be able to build on his momentum by taking advantage of a defense that is overly reliant on the blitz while ranking 13th in dropback success rate, leaving the middle of the field vulnerable to getting shredded. By creating explosive plays at a higher rate, the Panthers will be able to consistently get into scoring position and pull away on the scoreboard.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) (-110, DraftKings)

It may not be pretty, but the Minnesota Vikings are currently 5-0 in large part because of their defense. While Kyler Murray has been unable to get into a groove, the Vikings have been dominant on the other end, leading the league in defensive DVOA and EPA allowed per play. 

Brian Flores’ exotic schemes apply serious pressure to opposing QBs, increasing the amount of havoc in their throws. In Sunday’s contest against Indianapolis, the Vikings’ relentless pressure on defense will force Daniel Jones to get the ball out of his hands in quick order, giving the Colts’ QB less time to go through his progressions. 

With Indianapolis ranking 24th in DVOA on the other side of the ball, Murray will be able to give Minnesota the production the offense needs to reduce the amount of variance in the contest, making the Vikings worth a wager at the key number of -6.5.