Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell, who qualified sixth, are the only other drivers still in contention for the title.
Larson expressed confidence in his ability to win the race, especially since he felt like he got a “really, really bad run to the green” flag to start his qualifying lap. That came a day after he brushed the outside wall during practice and complained about the car’s balance through the turns.
“I don’t feel massively better or different there than practice,” Larson said. “Hopefully our car is in a decent place where we can do what we can do.”
Larson has a 67-point lead over Bell heading into the finale and needs only 9 points to secure his third Cup title in six years. He will get one point for starting the race and could earn more based on where he finishes the opening stage.
Larson has two wins and six top-five finishes in 12 starts at Homestead, making it more unlikely that Bell or Hamlin would be able to do enough to make up that kind of ground unless Larson has an early crash or engine failure.
Larson said his Hendrick Motorsports team was feeling loose Saturday. How comfortable?
“They were debating on if a hot dog is a sandwich and if cereal is a soup,” Larson said. “So I would say they were pretty relaxed. I was surprised by all that.”
Where did Larson weigh in on the discussion?
“The hot dog is not a sandwich, and absolutely cereal is not a soup,” he said.
Larson is in this position thanks to a postseason run for the ages. He’s won three times in the Chase, and finished eight of the nine events inside the top 10 — a staggering surge in which he essentially lapped the field.
Even if Larson struggles, either Bell or Hamlin would need to accumulate significant points to catch him. The maximum number of points for a race is 76.
“I don’t have any optimism,” Hamlin said.
Hamlin has essentially moved on to 2027. Sure, he would love to win Sunday to close out 2026 on a high note. But he also is ready to delve into what went wrong for Toyota, which has a series-leading 18 victories through 35 races, and was a heavy favorite to claim the Bill France Cup when the Chase for the championship began in September.
“It needs to be looked at,” Hamlin said. “We have to figure out that the win ratio to the championship ratio has just not been as good as it needs to be. That needs to be a deep dive and honestly figure out what needs to be changed.
“I don’t think we should just rinse and repeat, and let’s just do this all again next year. We really should think about what it’s going to take to win the big prize at the end because our cars are too fast for there to be just a few.”
Toyota has three Cup championships in 20 years in NASCAR, with Kyle Busch winning two (2015, 2019) and Martin Truex Jr. notching the other in 2017. Toyota has come close a bunch of times since, none of those as gut-wrenching as Hamlin’s runner-up finish last year.
But the manufacturer has never endured a season like this, where it enjoyed two stretches in which it won seven of nine races — and even won three in a row in the playoffs — only to get all-but-eliminated before the finale.
“I felt like last year was like a sudden death, and this one was just a slow bleed,” Hamlin said. “I just was in shock (last year). … Then this year, through each playoff race, I’m on the way home thinking: ‘Gosh, it’s all right, though. We’ll have to just make up for it next week …’
“This one was definitely a cut to the wrist and just watch it bleed.”