Since the latest College Football Playoff rankings came out on Tuesday night, a few notable observations came with them.
Guesses about possibilities in the future, too.
Utah at No. 2, BYU at No. 10, Texas Tech at No. 12, Houston at No. 14. Wow. Respect for the Big 12 is evident. Add in Arizona at No. 23 — that ranking could actually be higher — and Oklahoma State at No. 25, and it can be concluded, at least at this early juncture, that the only conference held in higher regard than the Big 12 is the SEC.
Everyone figured the Utes, undefeated as they are, would take the slot they did. But BYU remaining in the top 10 after suffering its second loss was a bit of a surprise. On the other hand, other two-loss teams — Alabama (7-2) is third, Texas (7-2) is sixth and Tennessee (7-2) is eighth — are floating in that same neighborhood.
What that means is that Utah, if it takes care of business in its final three regular-season games — against Arizona and TCU on the road and West Virginia at home — is not only headed to the Big 12 championship game but likely will make the playoff regardless of whether it wins that title game. Barring some kind of weirdness, they’ll be favored in all of those regular-season contests.
Here’s the question then: What happens to BYU?
If the Cougars win out — against Baylor at home, against Kansas on the road, against Cincinnati at home — and don’t qualify for the league championship game on account of one-loss Texas Tech winning its remaining games — at Oklahoma State, at Baylor, at home against TCU and going on to face Utah for the title — would BYU get into the playoff?
The Cougars are favorably positioned to do so.
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On the other hand, if Utah wins out and the Red Raiders stumble, it’s possible that Utah and BYU could play again in the conference championship game. That would be one monstrous matchup if both teams roll forward, and the Cougars were able to have a healthy LJ Martin to bolster their run game. Remember, that dude was the Big 12 offensive player of the year a season ago. He was not himself in last week’s rivalry game, unable to immediately return from injury and hit his highest gear.
It would be a gas to watch the rematch, were that to happen.
And if both of those teams made it to the title game and the score was tight, would each of them get invited into the playoff regardless of the outcome? Hard to imagine a three-loss BYU getting in, even if two of those defeats came at the hands of the highly-regarded Utes.
On the other hand — how many hands are there? — what if Utah and Texas Tech win out, they play for the championship, and BYU wins its remaining games? Would all three teams get in, the Cougars on the strength of their win over No. 5 Notre Dame?
Or, what if Utah and Texas Tech meet in the title match and the Red Raiders beat the Utes? Texas Tech would get an automatic bid, and Utah would probably still get an invitation with just a single loss. But would that then eliminate BYU?
Is it possible that Utah losing to Tech would be the worst thing that could happen to the Cougars? Picture that — BYU fans rooting their hearts out for a Ute victory and hoping for the best.
It’s all a crapshoot at this point, and with the way things have gone in college football this season, nobody knows nothing about nothing (I know, a double negative) — certainly not how it will all turn out. But, man, the scenarios, of which these are only a few, are wild.
Next season will be different, with 24 teams qualifying for the playoff. For the time being, though, right in the here and now, there are all kinds of reasons for everyone around here to pay attention and stay tuned.
Utah’s season has been beyond notable — and the Utes have the chance to make it spectacular if they stay on their current path. Morgan Scalley could be the perfect coach to persuade his players into taking nothing for granted.
I remember a conversation I had with Scalley when he was a senior safety heading into Utah’s undefeated 2004 season. All guesses were that the Utes were going to be extraordinary that year, but Scalley was not of a mind to look at it that way. He was focused only on one game — the next one. And he said as much. And he played that way. One game at a time might be the most often heard of all clichés, but that’s just because it’s the truest of them. There was no looking ahead, not for the Utes then, not for the Utes now.
For the rest of us, guessing and projecting ahead is like 50 miles of wide-open road. No harm in looking forward and wondering about what could be, what might be in the coming weeks — for the Utes and for the Cougars.
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