If last weekend’s matchup was perilously close to a do-or-die, we have officially arrived this week: the Ohio State Buckeyes simply cannot afford to lose once more.
Everything’s at stake for the Buckeyes as they get ready to host a Northwestern team led by a familiar face, Chip Kelly.
Kelly served as Ohio State’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach back in 2024, when the program won its last National Championship. It feels like it’s all been downhill since that moment for head coach Ryan Day.
Ohio State is reeling after losing two in a row, and the Buckeyes have dropped from being the No. 2 team in the Nation, to No. 12, to now No. 20 over the course of the last couple of weeks.
That’s why it’s absolutely critical for the Buckeyes to beat the Wildcats—one more loss and Ohio State can kiss any hopes of climbing back into the 12-team College Football Playoff field bye-bye. There’s no way back.
Why won’t Ohio State be able to recover if they fall to Northwestern?
As things stand, Ohio State will need to win all three remaining contests to think about the CFP. Northwestern currently has an identical 6-3 overall record to the Buckeyes, but they’re 3-3 in Big Ten play, while Ohio State is 4-2.
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After Northwestern, there’s still a road trip to 5-4 Nebraska and a home game against 5-4 Michigan on deck, both teams playing 2-4 ball within the conference. But none of those games will matter if the Buckeyes get there with four losses, too.
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Why?
Because by that time they’ll surely be out of the CFP’s Top-25 rankings, and with just two games to go, making up ground all the way to No. 11, at least, would seem impossible. Remember, one Group of 6 team gets an automatic bid, and Boise State, ranked No. 24, would currently hold that 12th spot.
On the other hand, beating the Wildcats at home completely changes everything. For starters, there would be an almost guaranteed move up from No. 20, depending on how many upsets the week brings. And judging from what we’ve seen recently in the season, we’re in for a few shockers this Saturday as well.
Secondly, stopping the Buckeyes’ two-game slide should do wonders for a team with a bruised ego. And it’s a big ego. Ohio State is just too talented and deep to lose three games in a row at this point of the campaign, regardless of who’s playing quarterback — it’s just inadmissible.
And now that we’ve mentioned quarterbacks, getting Luke Fahey —or Tavien St. Clair, for that matter— his first win completely changes the script.
So far, Fahey has looked overwhelmed, both on the road and at home. His confidence is shot. He needs a win to restore some aplomb. And if Fahey’s not up to the task, and it’s St. Claire’s turn behind center, then he definitely needs to show he can lead this team to a win. Any win will do right now.
Whichever way you want to slice it, the Buckeyes can’t wait another weekend to climb back into the win column. One more loss means not only the end of any CFP hope, but it could also signal the end of the road for several Buckeyes too, as players could start opting out if there’s nothing else to play for over the final two contests.
What kind of advice would you give Jeremiah Smith if you were his business agent in this scenario? Exactly.
For Ohio State, it all boils down to this: a win against Northwestern can salvage the campaign. A loss could mean the program’s worst season since 2011.
Which one will it be?
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